The rhetoric of trade war is escalating with each passing day.
US President Donald Trump threatens another $100 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods. China warns that it will fight back "at any cost".
This storm started with steel and aluminium, with tariffs coming into effect on March 23, but has grown in intensity to encompass a lengthening list of goods and products.
Rising trade tensions have weighed on industrial metal prices, unsurprisingly given their exposure to global growth prospects, but have caused the US aluminium premium market to whipsaw higher.
Which is ironic since prior to last week the premium was falling as the aluminium market realised that in its case the US administration's bark has proved considerably worse than its bite.
The CME's Midwest aluminium premium contract has provided an accurate market mirror on Mr Trump's seemingly chaotic approach to tariffs.
Based on the supply and logistics drivers of the North American aluminium market, it is a much more sensitive gauge of US tariff impacts than the London Metal Exchange price.
It is also an increasingly popular one with contract volumes up 32 per cent in the first quarter and open interest at a year's high.
The premium exploded upwards on February 13, the day of the release of the Section 232 investigation into US imports on national security grounds.
The report's recommendations for blanket tariffs and/or quotas propelled the CME's Dec 2018 contract from 13 to 16.5 cents/lb, a 27 per cent jump equivalent to a $77 per tonne rise in the cost of delivered aluminium in the US Midwest.
After a brief pull back it surged again to 17 cents/lb after Mr Trump announced on March 1 his intention to impose duties of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium.
Crucially, there was no talk of countries being exempted, not even Canada, the largest supplier of aluminium to the US market place and one that is "integrated" with the US industrial base, to quote the Section 232 report.
There was panic in Canada with officials simultaneously promising it would never happen and mulling possible retaliatory measures.
And there was panic everywhere else, encapsulated by the surging aluminium premium.
However, the premium dropped following Mr Trump's signing of the executive order on tariffs on March 8 with "carve-outs" for both Canada and Mexico.
It dropped harder towards 15 cents/lb after US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on March 22 the administration would "pause" on both steel and aluminium tariffs for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, the European Union and South Korea.
These exemptions, particularly that of Canada, significantly cushion but do not eliminate the tariff hit on the US market.
Exempted, for now at least, are three of the largest 10 suppliers of primary unwrought aluminium to the United States last year; top supplier Canada; fourth largest Argentina; and eight largest Australia.
India, sixth largest source of imports, is lobbying hard for its own carve-out.
And others will be doing the same. Among last year's top 10 importer list are the UAE and Bahrain, all of which offer intriguing bilateral deal potential for a US administration that explicitly mixes trade and politics.
Probably not lobbying so hard are Russia and Venezuela, two of the five countries singled out in the Section 232 report as benefiting from state subsidy, being potentially unreliable partners or acting as points of transhipment.
The other three were China, Vietnam and Hong Kong.
Russia was the second largest shipper of aluminium to the United States last year and what happens to that metallic flow is perhaps the key question to determining the lasting market impact of tariffs.
However, the broader take-away here is that after threatening to use a sledge-hammer, the US administration has narrowed its sights on those it regards as the real targets.
A similar pattern emerges from the tariffs on aluminium products.
Four out of last year's 10 top suppliers of aluminium plate, sheet and strip are exempt. Canada, Germany, Austria and France all duck the tariff bullet.
That leaves exposed China, target number one and by a wide margin the biggest-volume supplier of products to the United States last year.
It would be wrong, however, to suppose that all of this is low-grade material being dumped out of an oversupplied Chinese market.
Chinese imports to the United States, particularly those of lower-specification products, have been falling in recent years in response to ever tougher anti-dumping actions on specific product lines.
Last month, for example, the US Commerce Department slapped hefty duties on imports of aluminium foil from China, previously a major part of the two countries' aluminium trade.
Some of what China supplies may not be easily replaceable, opening the door for potential product exemptions, a process that is now underway.
This gradual dilution of the original "shock and awe" threat to hit everyone and every product with a 10 per cent tariff is why the aluminium premium was steadily retreating from its earlier highs.
Until last week, that is.
The rising political trade temperature has whiplashed US aluminium premiums higher again.
The Dec 2018 contract closed Thursday back up at 17 cents/lb. as everyone reassesses, again, their previous assumptions about how this tariff storm is going to play out.
An interesting contrarian indicator comes in the form of the share price of Century Aluminum, a prominent lobbyist for action against China aluminium imports and a domestic producer now promising to reactivate idled capacity.
The Century share price hit a two-year high of $24.77 on the day the Section 232 report was released.
It slumped on the two exemption announcements and is currently trading just above $17 with no obvious knock-on impact from the renewed strength in physical premiums.
Is that because, when it comes to aluminium at least, Mr Trump's tariffs are not what they first appeared?
Reuters
The%20specs
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Book%20Details
%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EThree%20Centuries%20of%20Travel%20Writing%20by%20Muslim%20Women%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEditors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiobhan%20Lambert-Hurley%2C%20Daniel%20Majchrowicz%2C%20Sunil%20Sharma%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIndiana%20University%20Press%3B%20532%20pages%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQureos%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E33%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESoftware%20and%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%243%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EClara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPatrick%20Rogers%2C%20Lee%20McMahon%2C%20Arthur%20Guest%2C%20Ahmed%20Arif%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELegalTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%244%20million%20of%20seed%20financing%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWamda%20Capital%2C%20Shorooq%20Partners%2C%20Techstars%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20OTF%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Knuru%20Capital%2C%20Plug%20and%20Play%20and%20The%20LegalTech%20Fund%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Super Saturday results
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
Winner: Drafted, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
Winner: Divine Image, Brett Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Old Persian, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
Brolliology: A History of the Umbrella in Life and Literature
By Marion Rankine
Melville House
