John Taylor has a complicated history with the US Federal Reserve that could force him into a hard pivot if he is selected as its next leader.
The Stanford University economist, who is on the US president Donald Trump’s short list to lead the central bank, wrote the monetary policy rule that Fed officials use as a constant reference, and many of the institution’s own economists are schooled in his ideas. On the other hand, he has been a vocal critic of recent Fed policy, arguing that the institution should stick closer to the recommendations of his formula and be less discretionary in its policy setting.
Mr Taylor would not be able to force an about-face overnight if he were Mr Trump’s pick. The chair has only one vote on policy, and since the former chairman Ben Bernanke’s time at the helm, consensus has been the standard for decision-making. The current crop of central bankers generally reject Mr Taylor’s world view as too rigid. That means as chairman, Mr Taylor would likely have to compromise, coax and work within the existing, discretionary framework - something of a U-turn for a man who is one of its leading critics.
“Whoever is the next Fed chair is going to have to work collaboratively,” says Tony Fratto, a managing partner at Hamilton Place Strategies in Washington and a former US Treasury department official who worked closely with Mr Taylor for several years. Of Mr Taylor, he says, “Can he do it? Yes, I think he can do it. But I also think there’s no choice but to do it.”
Mr Trump told Fox Business that he is considering Mr Taylor, The Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell, the current chairman Janet Yellen and a “couple of others” to lead the central bank. Ms Yellen’s term expires in February. “I will make my decision very shortly,” Mr Trump said.
Mr Taylor, a frequent witness on Fed policy at the House Financial Services Committee, has mocked the Fed’s mortgage bond purchases as “mondustrial policy”, and as early as 2009 warned that the “enormous” increase in bank reserves would stoke too much inflation, a worry that has not materialised.
Before Ms Yellen, all three previous Fed chairs were reappointed by a president of another party, giving incumbents an advantage in their second term. For that reason, challengers position themselves as discontinuity candidates, says Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the co-author of a new book on the Fed’s relationship with Congress.
The Fed “is being treated as a political institution, not that different than other institutions”, Ms Binder says, adding that self-styled change candidates are running against the insiders.
That could play well in a White House that has appointed critics of agencies to lead them, such as Scott Pruitt, the current administrator of the environmental protection agency. Some Republicans on the senate banking committee, which has Fed oversight authority, have voiced a clear preference for getting rid of Ms Yellen. Mike Crapo, the Idaho Republican who chairs the senate panel, said last week he “disagreed” with Fed policies such as quantitative easing and wants the central bank to “change direction”.
Mr Taylor has advocated for use of prescriptive policy rules in the wake of the financial crisis, like the one he set out in 1993. It now bears his name.
“World monetary policy now seems to have moved into a strategy-free zone," he wrote in 2015. In the same paper, he supported Republican-backed legislation requiring the Fed to adopt rule-based policy making that would have it explain any deviation to policymakers.
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Mr Taylor “has supported just about every Fed reform proposal by House Republicans, to the displeasure of, I expect, everyone inside” the Fed system, says the former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, who now runs a policy research firm. “That raises the question of how successful would he be as a consensus builder and leader within the FOMC."
Fed policymakers regularly argue that subjecting the Fed to a rule - and forcing it to explain deviations to Congress - would curb independence and hurt the economy.
What is more, the rule, depending on the economic assumptions that are plugged into it, might call for several rate hikes: the baseline Taylor Rule model indicates policy rates around 3.75 per cent, versus the Fed’s current target range of 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.
The Fed has deviated sharply from its suggested path in recent years as the post-recession economy has struggled to gain steam. It is not clear whether Mr Taylor would want to push rates up immediately, or whether he would stick to the gradual path of increases the Fed is already treading.
He indicated a willingness to be pragmatic during remarks at an October 13 conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston president Eric Rosengren. For his part, Mr Rosengren says “most people who end up being the chair, no matter who they are, tend to be a little bit more flexible in their thinking when they’re actually making the decision”.
One reason to diverge from the recommendations of the rule is that it would have been a poor guide during the financial crisis.
Policy was in a bind when officials cut rates to zero in 2008 following the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers. The Taylor rule would have recommended dipping into negative territory during the recession, but policymakers worried that would harm the nation’s banks and cause a damaging public and political backlash.
Since 2012, applying the rule would have called for higher rates than the Fed has actually set - arguably a wrong approach, since inflation has lagged and is still well under its 2 per cent target.
To be fair, Mr Taylor has always said his rule is a guideline, not a mechanical tool, and so the Fed could deviate from its prescriptions. They would just need a good reason to do so.
The Fed already looks at rules, but to formalise that process by tying policy explicitly to one would be a major change, says Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed historian at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
“It’s about the creation of a new consensus, and I don’t know that he has the skill-set to accomplish this,” Mr Conti-Brown says.
“John Taylor could be one of the most disruptive Fed chairs in its history, if he can persuade the internal actors within the system that all this time, he was right, and they were wrong.”
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Meydan card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (PA) Group 1 US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) Group 2 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
CREW
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