The UK economy could grow by 8 per cent in 2021 – the highest jump since the Second World War - as the country recovers from the pandemic-induced fall in output during 2020.
The recovery, the largest since 1941, will partly be driven by a spending boost from UK consumers who have built up £200 billion ($273.17bn) in savings during the Covid-19 lockdowns, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
Britain’s gross domestic product is expected to contract by 11.4 per cent in 2020, said Douglas McWilliams, the founder and executive deputy chairman of the economics think tank.
“Partly because of the greater measured fall and partly because of the high propensity to consume in the UK, we expect that spending boosted by the £200bn of savings built up during the pandemic could lead to growth around 8 per cent in 2021,” Mr McWilliams said in a research note.
The only years recording comparable or higher growth were 1915, which recorded growth of 8 per cent, 1927 with 8.1 per cent, 1940 with 10 per cent and 1941 with 9.1 per cent.
“Three of these were in the exceptional conditions of wartime, the other registered the recovery from 1926’s General Strike. Growth at this pace will probably prove inflationary, even though it leaves GDP for the year lower than in 2019,” Mr McWilliams said.
The UK's economy has been hammered by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, which plunged the country into lockdown twice and forced businesses, shops and schools to close at the height of the second wave. In the second quarter of this year the economy contracted by 19.8 per cent due to the first wave of the pandemic, at a time when Britain was also contending with difficult Brexit trade deal negotiations.
However, despite rising coronavirus cases and much of the country under the severest Tier 4 movement restrictions, the year ended on a more positive note after Parliament approved Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new trade deal with the European Union.
The British pound rallied on Thursday to a 2.5-year peak against the dollar, hours before Britain's final exit from the European single market on December 31.
Sterling jumped to $1.3686 in early morning deals to attain the highest level since April 2018, also boosted by Britain becoming the first nation to approve AstraZeneca's cheap Covid-19 vaccine.
The roll-out of vaccines globally is also expected to improve the world economic picture, which also fared poorly in 2020 due to Covid-19.
While global GDP is set to contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund, CEBR expects a rise of 5.3 per cent in 2021, a level not seen since 1976.
“As vaccinations spread, much of the world will start to return to normal. Indeed pent up demand could create price rises and shortages in many areas, especially in services where supplies might be limited,” said Mr McWilliams.
Sectors that could receive a significant boost next year include travel, according to CEBR, which traditionally accounts for 10 per cent of the global economy, with many UK residents “desperate to travel” after being forced to cancel or postpone holidays.
British travellers have also missed out on skiing and winter breaks at the start of this year, as much of the country has been plunged into Tier 4 restrictions, which bans all but essential travel.
“The best destinations, flights and hotels will be booked out by the second half of the year,” said Mr McWilliams. "Prices will rise, partly because costly social distancing precautions are likely to persist and partly because those facing unprecedented demand will be seeking to rebuild profits to offset the losses made over the previous 18 months.”
City centres may also experience a resurgence, after being emptied during the pandemic because the majority of the British workforce was encouraged to work from home.
Much of the decline in activity will return by the second half of 2021, said CEBR, however it warned that increased transport restrictions in the UK capital have created serious traffic jams.
“[This] may damage the long term future of the city builders, delivery people and essential services find it hard to reach their destinations,” said Mr McWilliams.
The UK, currently the fifth-biggest economy, will slip to sixth place in 2024, according to an earlier CEBR forecast. The country's economy is expected to grow 4 per cent a year from 2021 to 2025 and 1.8 per cent from 2026 to 2030.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mobile phone packages comparison
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20RB%20Sarab%2C%20Allaia%20Tiar%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.30pm%3A%20Mamsha%20Alkhair%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mutaqadim%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Emirates%20Fillies%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Almotajalliah%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.30pm%3A%20Emirates%20Colts%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fadwaan%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh2%2C500%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mujeeb%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.30pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Western%20Writer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
More from UAE Human Development Report:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Messi at the Copa America
2007 – lost 3-0 to Brazil in the final
2011 – lost to Uruguay on penalties in the quarter-finals
2015 – lost to Chile on penalties in the final
2016 – lost to Chile on penalties in the final
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Match info
Australia 580
Pakistan 240 and 335
Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs
