Britain's economy is at a “critical juncture” and on track for a 10 per cent contraction this year amid the threat of a second Covid-19 lockdown and a disorderly exit from the EU, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Decisions made now about management of the Covid-19 crisis and future trade relationships will have a lasting impact on the country's economic trajectory for the years to come.
The UK can only reach pre-crisis levels gradually amid an “exceptionally uncertain” outlook as consumer-facing sectors remain disrupted and rising unemployment and business closures leave scars on the economy, the OECD's latest economic survey of the country found.
This risks exacerbating pre-existing weak productivity growth, inequalities, child poverty and regional disparities, the OECD said, as the country faces a prolonged period of disruption to activity and jobs.
“Ongoing measures to limit a second wave of infections will need to be carefully calibrated to manage the economic impact. The country started from a position of relatively high well-being on many dimensions. But productivity and investment growth have been weak in recent years and an ambitious agenda of reforms will be key to a sustainable recovery,” the report found.
“Leaving the EU Single Market, in which the economy is deeply integrated, creates new economic challenges. Decisions made now about management of the Covid-19 crisis and future trade relationships will have a lasting impact on the country’s economic trajectory for the years to come.”
Like many countries around the world, Britain has been hit hard by the economic fallout of the lockdown and ongoing restrictive measures to curb the spread of the virus. The country's unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in the three months to August, its highest in more than three years, with the number of redundancies increasing by 227,000 over the same period – the most since 2009 –according to the Office for National Statistics.
The UK economy grew 2.1 per cent in August from July, far lower than economist forecasts of 4.6 per cent, at a time when restrictions were at their lowest and government support at its highest.
The Bank of England now expects the jobless rate to hit 7.5 per cent by the end of the year, while analysts expect gross domestic product to rise 2 per cent month-on-month in September followed by no increase at all in the last three months of the year.
The OECD expects Britain's economy to slump 10.1 per cent this year before growing by 7.6 per cent in 2021 when unemployment will average 7.1 per cent.
“While many activities fell sharply during lockdown, some have since picked up substantially as lockdown measures have eased," said the OECD. "Nevertheless, overall demand is set to remain well below previous levels in the coming quarters. Consumer-facing sectors remain disrupted and business and consumer confidence depressed with high joblessness uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic.”
A resurgence of Covid-19, leading to further lockdown measures would lead to weaker growth, higher unemployment and even greater pressure on balance sheets, the OECD said, with a disorderly exit from the EU Single Market, without a trade agreement, exacerbating the effect on trade and jobs.
“Agreeing a close trade relationship with the EU would support recovery, productivity and employment for both parties,” the organisation said. “While negotiations have focused on maintaining low trade frictions on goods, trade in services is crucial for a service-based economy such as the UK. Following exit from the Single Market, UK-based financial institutions will lose their passporting rights. Keeping close relationships with the European Union will help to limit costs.”
A disorderly Brexit would affect UK sectors differently in the medium term, the OECD said, with motor vehicle and transport, meat and textile sectors the worst hit, and exports falling by over 30 per cent.
The OECD recommends a multifaceted package to support a sustainable recovery post-Covid and raise growth potential, with the supportive fiscal policies already in place “set to hasten the recovery”. But further measures are needed to mitigate scarring.
“The scope for further monetary easing is limited but low interest rates provide fiscal space. A key challenge will be ensuring that people in activities that are lastingly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis are able to move to new activities and do not become detached from the labour market,” the organisation said.
In the March budget, UK finance minister Rishi Sunak committed more than £6 billion ($7.73bn), equating to 0.3 per cent of GDP, of new healthcare funding. The government also put in place a set of economic measures, corresponding to 5.5 per cent of GDP in discretionary spending, to support businesses and households.
The government is now to exiting the emergency employment measures put in place at the height of the pandemic, replacing the Job Retention Scheme, that helped prevent sweeping layoffs during the lockdown, with a six-month wage subsidy programme.
The OECD advised further increases to labour market spending on training and in-work benefits to help displaced, low-skilled and low-income workers. It also said spending on digital infrastructure should be prioritised in deprived areas and that monetary policy should remain accommodative until there are clear signals of price pressures. .
Once the recovery is firmly established, the OECD said Britain should address the remaining structural deficit and put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path.
The UK borrowed a record £35.9 billion in August as the cost of combatting Covid-19 took its toll on the country's public finances.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The biog:
From: Wimbledon, London, UK
Education: Medical doctor
Hobbies: Travelling, meeting new people and cultures
Favourite animals: All of them
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The specs: 2018 Jeep Compass
Price, base: Dh100,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.4L four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 184bhp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 237Nm at 3,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.4L / 100km
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch (captain), Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, David Warner, Adam Zampa
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Race 3
Produced: Salman Khan Films and Tips Films
Director: Remo D’Souza
Cast: Salman Khan, Anil Kapoor, Jacqueline Fernandez, Bobby Deol, Daisy Shah, Saqib Salem
Rating: 2.5 stars
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
The five pillars of Islam
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
FIXTURES
Saturday
5.30pm: Shabab Al Ahli v Al Wahda
5.30pm: Khorfakkan v Baniyas
8.15pm: Hatta v Ajman
8.15pm: Sharjah v Al Ain
Sunday
5.30pm: Kalba v Al Jazira
5.30pm: Fujairah v Al Dhafra
8.15pm: Al Nasr v Al Wasl
NEW ARRIVALS
Benjamin Mendy (Monaco) - £51.75m (Dh247.94m)
Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur) - £45.9m
Bernardo Silva (Monaco) - £45m
Ederson Moraes (Benfica) - £36m
Danilo (Real Madrid) - £27m
Douglas Luiz (Vasco de Gama) - £10.8m
%E2%80%98White%20Elephant%E2%80%99
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SPEC%20SHEET
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THE%20SWIMMERS
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Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
The specs
Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder and 3.6-litre 6-cylinder
Power: 220 and 280 horsepower
Torque: 350 and 360Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh136,521 VAT and Dh166,464 VAT
On sale: now
Racecard
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Company%20profile
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Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: BorrowMe (BorrowMe.com)
Date started: August 2021
Founder: Nour Sabri
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce / Marketplace
Size: Two employees
Funding stage: Seed investment
Initial investment: $200,000
Investors: Amr Manaa (director, PwC Middle East)
