Researchers will examine the spending habits of thousands of families throughout 2019. Mona Al Marzooqi / The National
Researchers will examine the spending habits of thousands of families throughout 2019. Mona Al Marzooqi / The National

Economy

UAE non-oil sector index dips slightly in January

Emirates NBD’s PMI shows the introduction of VAT increased costs

Dania Saadi

February 05, 2018

The UAE's non-oil sector slowed slightly in January from a month earlier, yet remained robust despite the introduction of VAT which affected costs, according to a key gauge of the sector.

Emirates NBD's UAE Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 56.8 in January form 57.7 in December, the lender said on Monday. A reading above 50 suggests the non-oil economy is growing, while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction. The survey is sponsored by Emirates NBD and produced by IHS Markit, a financial information services company.

"The January survey indicates that non-oil sector growth got off to a strong start in 2018, notwithstanding the slight decline in the headline index," said Khatija Haque, head of Mena research at Emirates NBD. "The impact of VAT is evident in the sharp rise in input costs last month.  While selling prices also increased in January, the survey suggests that the full rise in input costs was not passed on to consumers."

The UAE introduced VAT on January 1 at a rate of 5 per cent to help boost government income crimped by oil prices that have slumped from the mid-2014 high of $115 a barrel before recovering to the current level of around $70 a barrel following an agreement on production cuts between Opec and non-Opec members.

Government officials have said the newly introduced VAT will increase consumer prices by 1.4 per cent this year.

________________

Read more: 

________________

VAT affected pricing and purchasing in January, with purchase costs rising at the fastest pace since November 2011, while wages and salaries also picked up pace, Emirates NBD said.

Stronger economic growth, competitive pricing and new clients helped companies secure an increase in new orders in January. New export orders rose as well for the second consecutive month.

“Higher new orders contributed to a sharp and accelerated rise in business activity. Despite the faster rise in output, backlogs of work continued to accumulate,” the report said.

Although non-oil sector firms increased hiring in January at a “modest” pace to handle higher workloads, the rate of job creation was the fastest since January 2017, the report added.

2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Pakistanis%20at%20the%20ILT20%20
%3Cp%3EThe%20new%20UAE%20league%20has%20been%20boosted%20this%20season%20by%20the%20arrival%20of%20five%20Pakistanis%2C%20who%20were%20not%20released%20to%20play%20last%20year.%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EShaheen%20Afridi%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESet%20for%20at%20least%20four%20matches%2C%20having%20arrived%20from%20New%20Zealand%20where%20he%20captained%20Pakistan%20in%20a%20series%20loss.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShadab%20Khan%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%0DThe%20leg-spin%20bowling%20allrounder%20missed%20the%20tour%20of%20New%20Zealand%20after%20injuring%20an%20ankle%20when%20stepping%20on%20a%20ball.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAzam%20Khan%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EPowerhouse%20wicketkeeper%20played%20three%20games%20for%20Pakistan%20on%20tour%20in%20New%20Zealand.%20He%20was%20the%20first%20Pakistani%20recruited%20to%20the%20ILT20.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMohammed%20Amir%20(Desert%20Vipers)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHas%20made%20himself%20unavailable%20for%20national%20duty%2C%20meaning%20he%20will%20be%20available%20for%20the%20entire%20ILT20%20campaign.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EImad%20Wasim%20(Abu%20Dhabi%20Knight%20Riders)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20left-handed%20allrounder%2C%2035%2C%20retired%20from%20international%20cricket%20in%20November%20and%20was%20subsequently%20recruited%20by%20the%20Knight%20Riders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”