The protectionist stance of the current US administration has been evident since US President Donald Trump took office: the ongoing re-negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), non-participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the tariff hikes – which began with solar panels and washing machines (in January) to the latest threat of potential additional tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese exports.
The nationalism-protectionism of "America First" is coupled with an isolationist view of regional and international agreements on trade, investment, climate, human rights and even defence agreements (Nato). We are witnessing the demise of multilateralism and rule-based international cooperation built since the Second World War.
We have entered the phase of Trumpian Trade Wars, from the imposition of steep tariffs on steel and aluminium in early March this year, to the latest (July 6) announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on about $34bn worth of Chinese goods. China, the EU and others have announced retaliatory tariffs, which does not bode well for global trade. The Financial Times estimates that, should countries retaliate, the value of trade covered by the measures and countermeasures resulting from Mr Trump's trade policies could reach more than $1 trillion (some 6 per cent of world trade), which would derail global growth and recovery in the EU. The escalating economic tension between the US and Europe, after China has already rattled global stock markets, could lead to a financial crisis given the headwinds of monetary policy tightening and geopolitical turmoil.
Why is the US running large trade deficits? The main answer is that the US has a low level of savings compared to the level of investment. The personal savings rate in the US is running around 3.2 per cent compared to the thrifty Chinese rate of about 35 per cent. The US is spending more than the income it generates, running both a fiscal and a current account deficit, attracting capital inflows and borrowing to finance these deficits. The deficits look set to increase given the US fiscal stimulus package and tax cuts passed in 2017, which encourage consumption and imports at a time when the US economy is overheating.
Tariffs on solar panels, steel and aluminium or cars will raise the cost to US businesses and consumers and disrupt global supply chains. A 25 per cent tariff on all cars and parts would raise US consumer prices by $1,400 to $7,000 for high-end vehicles. For the proposed auto tariffs, nearly 98 per cent of the targeted car and truck imports by value would hit key US allies: the European Union, Canada, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. Trumpian Trade Wars are not only beggar-thy-neighbour policies, they are beggar-thy-allies.
Cars and phones are prime examples of highly globally integrated industries. Many of the goods that the US imports (such as electrical and electronics) are US designed but manufactured in China, Mexico and other countries with an advantage of lower costs, but relatively low value added in global value chains. The profits, however, are made by US businesses like Apple, Amazon and others. Economists look at "trade value added", but unscrupulous politicians broadcast headline grabbing total trade numbers.
Although the highlighted US-China trade deficit was at $375bn last year, the US runs trade deficits with 102 nations (not just China) and has run deficits since 1975, averaging $535bn per annum since 2000. The trade deficit on goods was $810bn in 2017 but substantially less at $566bn on goods and services: the US is a major exporter of services and tends to run a large services surplus.
The notion that imposing tariffs on Chinese imports would erase US trade deficits is flawed, absent macroeconomic developments and policies that would change the saving-investment gap. On the other hand, trade retaliation might be costly for export-led China and tit-for-tat tariff hikes between the two largest economies of the world would result in slowing global trade, severe disruption of global supply chains, lower investment, derail economic growth and result in a sharp correction of financial markets.
The announcement of a widening of the scope of tariffs signals that US strategy is shifting away from the protection of local industries (solar, steel) based on "national security" to one based on intellectual property and the acquisition of new tech. The wider, more strategic objective is an attempt to prevent China’s declared ambitions of moving up the activity and trade complexity ladder, with higher value tech goods and services, the “Made in China 2025” horizon.
_______________
Read more:
G20 calls for more dialogue on rising trade tensions
IMF maintains global growth forecasts but warns of trade war troubles
_______________
China is inching closer to developing an edge in AI, blockchain, Big Data, FinTech, life sciences (Crispr) and related technologies. Indeed, the EU might join the US to rein in the emergence of China as a tech frontrunner.
With the US imposing tariffs on a variety of goods, trade will be diverted to other countries. Already, China is buying soya beans from Brazil, shifting from the US. China will shift and develop new markets for its exports, reorienting its trade towards the EU, Asia, and the Middle East, leading to lower prices of affected commodities (which could lead to potential retaliation by the EU and Japan). China has other options: it could retaliate through non-tariff barriers to trade rather than imposition of tariffs; raise informal barriers to US investment in China; diminish the flow of investment in US Treasuries; as well as allow a depreciation of the yuan (justified by lower export and overall growth as a result of US tariffs). We could be entering a phase of currency wars.
The bottom line is that growing US trade protectionism will lead to a shift in global trade patterns and international alliances away from the US and the creation of new trade blocs. Already, the EU and Japan have signed a major trade agreement eliminating most tariffs, covering a market of some 600 million people and a third of the global economy.
China is likely to seek a similar free trade and investment agreement with the EU (which is already China’s most important trade partner) and seek strategic partnerships with Germany and other European countries. It will likely also want to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. China will likely accelerate implementation of its Belt & Road initiative leading to a deeper integration of B&R countries into its economy and its global value chains, opening new markets. China will also accelerate and increase its investments in robotics, AI, Blockchain, Big Data, FinTech, and high tech to bring forward its ambitious “Made in China 2025” strategy. The Chinese dragon will not be contained.
What does all this mean for the GCC? The GCC exported $9.4bn of aluminium in 2017, (of which the UAE provided $5.6bn worth, representing 10.1 per cent of world exports) and is the largest exporter to the US after Canada and Russia. Already adversely affected by aluminium tariffs, the region would be additionally hurt by a decline in world trade and world growth which would lower oil prices, and particularly if China were hard-hit.
The GCC’s total trade with China was close to $110bn last year, with the largest export from the region being crude oil, and accounts for more than two thirds of China’s trade with the Middle East.
Given growing US protectionism, the time is right for the GCC to reorient their international trade agreements and pivot towards Asia, including the long delayed Free Trade Agreement with China.
Nasser Saidi is the former chief economist of DIFC and has served as Lebanon’s economy minister
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%205%2C%201994%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jeff%20Bezos%20founds%20Cadabra%20Inc%2C%20which%20would%20later%20be%20renamed%20to%20Amazon.com%2C%20because%20his%20lawyer%20misheard%20the%20name%20as%20'cadaver'.%20In%20its%20earliest%20days%2C%20the%20bookstore%20operated%20out%20of%20a%20rented%20garage%20in%20Bellevue%2C%20Washington%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%2016%2C%201995%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20formally%20opens%20as%20an%20online%20bookseller.%20%3Cem%3EFluid%20Concepts%20and%20Creative%20Analogies%3A%20Computer%20Models%20of%20the%20Fundamental%20Mechanisms%20of%20Thought%3C%2Fem%3E%20becomes%20the%20first%20item%20sold%20on%20Amazon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1997%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20goes%20public%20at%20%2418%20a%20share%2C%20which%20has%20grown%20about%201%2C000%20per%20cent%20at%20present.%20Its%20highest%20closing%20price%20was%20%24197.85%20on%20June%2027%2C%202024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1998%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20IMDb%2C%20its%20first%20major%20acquisition.%20It%20also%20starts%20selling%20CDs%20and%20DVDs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2000%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Marketplace%20opens%2C%20allowing%20people%20to%20sell%20items%20on%20the%20website%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2002%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20forms%20what%20would%20become%20Amazon%20Web%20Services%2C%20opening%20the%20Amazon.com%20platform%20to%20all%20developers.%20The%20cloud%20unit%20would%20follow%20in%202006%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2003%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20turns%20in%20an%20annual%20profit%20of%20%2475%20million%2C%20the%20first%20time%20it%20ended%20a%20year%20in%20the%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2005%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Prime%20is%20introduced%2C%20its%20first-ever%20subscription%20service%20that%20offered%20US%20customers%20free%20two-day%20shipping%20for%20%2479%20a%20year%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2006%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Unbox%20is%20unveiled%2C%20the%20company's%20video%20service%20that%20would%20later%20morph%20into%20Amazon%20Instant%20Video%20and%2C%20ultimately%2C%20Amazon%20Video%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2007%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20first%20hardware%20product%2C%20the%20Kindle%20e-reader%2C%20is%20introduced%3B%20the%20Fire%20TV%20and%20Fire%20Phone%20would%20come%20in%202014.%20Grocery%20service%20Amazon%20Fresh%20is%20also%20started%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2009%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20introduces%20Amazon%20Basics%2C%20its%20in-house%20label%20for%20a%20variety%20of%20products%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2010%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20foundations%20for%20Amazon%20Studios%20were%20laid.%20Its%20first%20original%20streaming%20content%20debuted%20in%202013%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2011%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Appstore%20for%20Google's%20Android%20is%20launched.%20It%20is%20still%20unavailable%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Echo%20is%20launched%2C%20a%20speaker%20that%20acts%20as%20a%20personal%20digital%20assistant%20powered%20by%20Alexa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2017%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20Whole%20Foods%20for%20%2413.7%20billion%2C%20its%20biggest%20acquisition%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2018%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20market%20cap%20briefly%20crosses%20the%20%241%20trillion%20mark%2C%20making%20it%2C%20at%20the%20time%2C%20only%20the%20third%20company%20to%20achieve%20that%20milestone%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Fixtures
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Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
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What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
