It's probably not what US President Donald Trump had in mind when imposing tariffs on aluminium imports, but it looks likely that some of the big winners from the 10 per cent import tax will be China's producers.
While Chinese aluminium companies now face the same tariff obstacle as other exporters to the United States, they appear better placed to benefit from some of the (most likely) unintended consequences of the Trump administration's policies.
The Trump tariffs and measures against major Russian producer Rusal, along with a strike at Alcoa's alumina and bauxite operations in Western Australia are combining to roil aluminium markets.
Throw in Mr Trump's move to double the tariff on aluminium from Turkey and the result is a market that was most likely in a small supply deficit this year is now more concerned about the risk of supply disruptions.
Rusal, which produced 1.87 million tonnes of aluminium in the first half, is a major supplier not only to the US, but also to other countries around the world.
It is reportedly concerned that it will have to halt production or stockpile output if an agreement on US sanctions against it cannot be reached.
The Trump administration has given Rusal's US customers until October 23 to end their business with the Russian company.
If no deal is reached to extend, or amend, that deadline, the aluminium market is likely to face severe disruptions as Rusal's output is blocked from world markets.
The Trump tariffs are also hurting the US aluminium producers they are designed to help, with Alcoa asking for an exemption from the tariffs because it imports essential aluminium products from its facilities in Canada.
Alcoa said in July it will incur as much as $14 million (Dh51m) a month in extra expenses, mainly from tariffs levied on aluminium imported from Canada, its biggest supplier.
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Read more:
Rusal's profit rockets despite US sanctions on Russian aluminium giant
Often ignored alumina having a spell in the spotlight
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If Rusal is largely blocked from the global aluminium market, and if strikes do translate into supply disruptions, there are very few producers currently able to take advantage.
China's aluminium producers do have spare capacity, and assuming they can work their way around some of the pollution measures, they are able to make more of the lightweight metal, used in products such as beverage cans and motor cars.
Global aluminium output was 5.321mt in June, down 2.2 per cent from the previous month, according to figures released on July 20 by the International Aluminium Institute.
However, China's aluminium output, which is more than half of the global total, ramped up in June to 2.83mt, up 1.6 per cent from the prior month, according to official figures.
Daily production in June was about 94,000 tonnes, the second-highest on record, according to Reuters calculations based on data available from the National Bureau of Statistics.
China's smelters are responding to rising domestic prices, with benchmark Shanghai futures up 5 per cent from the recent low in mid-July to the close of 14,520 yuan (Dh7,748) a tonne on August 10.
While the US tariffs on aluminium imports have only been in effect since the start of June, they don't appear to be hurting Chinese exports as yet.
Exports of unwrought aluminium and products surged to the second-highest on record in July, coming in at 519,000 tonnes, according to preliminary trade data released on August 8.
This was up 18 per cent from the same month in 2017, and year-to-date exports are 13.6 per cent higher than for the first seven months last year.
This data doesn't suggest the Chinese aluminium sector is struggling, the main issue for them will be attempting to maximise output while complying with a new round of pollution restrictions.
However, newer and more efficient smelters may help China produce more aluminium at a lower cost, while also reducing the emissions intensity per unit.
When Mr Trump launched his initial steel and aluminium tariffs he tweeted that "trade wars are good, and easy to win".
For aluminium, his actions have so far disrupted supply chains, angered the top producer in his own country, increased manufacturing costs in the US and elsewhere, and possibly made his number one target, China, the main beneficiary.
Reuters
Company%20profile
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Liverpool 4-1 Shrewsbury
Liverpool
Gordon (34'), Fabinho (44' pen, 90' 3), Firmino (78')
Shrewsbury
Udoh (27'minutes)
Man of the Match: Kaide Gordon (Liverpool)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
Bharat
Director: Ali Abbas Zafar
Starring: Salman Khan, Katrina Kaif, Sunil Grover
Rating: 2.5 out of 5 stars
The%20specs
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Company%20Profile
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Honeymoonish
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