Middle East and North Africa policy makers need to remain accommodative with fiscal and monetary measures, while countries can accelerate their economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic by investing in green infrastructure, technology and digitalisation, a senior International Monetary Fund official said.
The recovery across countries is uneven and hinges on the vaccination roll out, containment measures and the ability of countries to limit the scarring from the pandemic, Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF said in an interview with The National.
"We see certain improvements in some of the fundamentals like oil price, the level of low interest rates, some countries bouncing back, but the fog of uncertainties of the second and third wave of the pandemic … are casting a shadow on this year," Mr Azour said.
"We need to accelerate the recovery … because to regain the levels of pre-Covid we need still more effort. We will not regain this before 2022 and we don’t want to have a lost decade whereby we will be slower with reforms and slower in recovery."
Mr Azour said 2021 is a year where the region finds itself in a "race between the virus and the vaccine, and a recovery … will hinge on three important factors; access to vaccines in terms of inoculation, the strength of the policy response; fiscal monetary all that has been deployed over the last few months and the impact of the global economy on the region, on the oil price, and the global outlook on interest rates".
The economies of the Mena region are projected to grow 3.1 per cent this year after contracting 3.8 per cent in 2020. Countries that have accelerated the vaccination could benefit from an additional 0.3 or 0.4 per cent growth this year. Those lagging could lose 0.3 per cent or 0.5 per cent.
For instance, Mr Azour said despite the challenges Palestinians faced in the first wave of the pandemic and the second, their economy, which relies largely on donor aid, managed the first wave "in a relatively good way".
But he added, "it’s important for Palestine to get access to the vaccine because we see the positive impact of vaccination in reducing the spreading of the virus and allowing the economy to recover".
Lebanon whose economy contracted 25 per cent in 2020, may see an additional contraction of 9 per cent this year depending on the capacity of forming a cabinet and implementing needed reforms, as it battles the pandemic, Mr Azour said.
Iran, which has the highest number of Covid-19 infections in the region at over 1.4 million, may see an economic recovery of between 3 to 3.3 per cent growth in 2021, after contracting 5.7 per cent last year.
While vaccinations are key to kickstarting growth and revitalising economies, continued fiscal and monetary support is critical to preventing socio-economic disparities from widening, protecting businesses and mitigating rising unemployment. Arab countries are projected to have the equivalent of one million fewer full-time jobs this year, compared to pre-crisis levels, according to the International Labour Organisation.
"Countries that still have fiscal space need to target further and focus on where the issues are in 2021. The capacity of countries to provide additional support explains the disparities that we see in terms of recovery," Mr Azour said.
"Countries who have lower level of debt are in better shape. Those who have limited or no fiscal space need to re-allocate their resources and redirect spending on the priorities and need to be much more proactive in their policy making."
Central banks across the Arab world rolled out a slew of monetary measures to provide liquidity, support banks and ease debt concerns for borrowers, by reducing interest rates and capital reserves requirements of lenders, as governments provided fiscal stimulus to cushion the impact of the pandemic on economies.
The Covid-19 pandemic which tipped the world economy last year into the worst recession since the 1930s saw governments and central banks globally pour more than $12 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus to stabilise financial markets, support their economies and protect jobs.
While banks in the Mena region are well capitalised with a good level of profitability and central banks have taken the necessary measures, the expanding health crisis means "there will be a risk of increase in non-performing loans," Mr Azour said. "This is why in terms of policy recommendations, countries that have the capacity, [should] extend the measures."
Mr Azour said policies that were put in place to combat Covid-19 and the treatment have helped countries battle the second wave, but there are areas and trends that countries need to seize upon moving forward.
The pandemic "showed that investment in good quality infrastructure paid off. Technology is not only to provide a platform for business, but also a platform for enablers; education, access to good quality remote education, access to healthcare, all these elements proved to be very important", he said.
"Those trends are going to accelerate and are going to divide communities and countries. This is why we are calling for a focus on accelerating these trends in order to close the gap between those who recover fast and those lagging."
He said technology was instrumental in providing access for those in the informal sector in countries like Morocco or Egypt. In Morocco, mobile technology was used to provide access for direct support for more than 5 million families. The harnessing of technology in GCC countries was notable and facilitated good remote education and telemedicine.
"Those are important elements and will play a big role in the future. The fact that countries of the GCC have invested in 5G, this is a very good step forward," Mr Azour said. "Technology will help accelerate the recovery but also reduce the gaps between social groups and help in the inclusion [of women and the youth]. Technology is also going to be very important for countries in terms of being able to participate in the value chain."
QUARTER-FINAL
Wales 20-19 France
Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2
France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)
Other key dates
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Finals draw: December 2
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Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
Everybody%20Loves%20Touda
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nabil%20Ayouch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nisrin%20Erradi%2C%20Joud%20Chamihy%2C%20Jalila%20Talemsi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
LIGUE 1 FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Nice v Angers (9pm)
Lille v Monaco (10.45pm)
Saturday
Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain (7pm)
Bordeaux v Guingamp (10pm)
Caen v Amiens (10pm)
Lyon v Dijon (10pm)
Metz v Troyes (10pm)
Sunday
Saint-Etienne v Rennes (5pm)
Strasbourg v Nantes (7pm)
Marseille v Toulouse (11pm)
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Pakistan Super League
Previous winners
2016 Islamabad United
2017 Peshawar Zalmi
2018 Islamabad United
2019 Quetta Gladiators
Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286
Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
The fake news generation
288,000 – the number of posts reported as hate speech that were deleted by Facebook globally each month in May and June this year
11% – the number of Americans who said they trusted the news they read on Snapchat as of June 2017, according to Statista. Over a quarter stated that they ‘rarely trusted’ the news they read on social media in general
31% - the number of young people in the US aged between 10 and 18 who said they had shared a news story online in the last six months that they later found out was wrong or inaccurate
63% - percentage of Arab nationals who said they get their news from social media every single day.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
