Economic distress and social discontent could increase around the world in the next 18 months unless leaders, policymakers and businesses work together to address problems created by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the World Economic Forum.
A survey by the organisation of 350 of the world’s leading risk professionals highlighted the issues caused by the pandemic, with a prolonged global recession the main concern, according to 68.6 per cent of respondents.
Economic fears dominated, with 56.8 per cent citing a surge in bankruptcies as the main risk after Covid-19. The failure of entire industries or sectors in certain countries was referred to by 55.9 per cent of risk professionals.
The response to Covid-19 "required trillions of dollars" in support that is likely to cause structural shifts in the global economy, the report said.
Governments have poured in close to $8 trillion in economic support to counter the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Public debt in the G20 economies had reached a high of 90 per cent of gross domestic product in 2019, meaning many countries already had little room for manoeuvre.
“A build-up of debt is likely to burden government budgets and corporate balances for many years, global economic relations could be reshaped, emerging economies are at risk of submerging into a deeper crisis, while businesses could face increasingly adverse consumption, production and competition patterns,” the report said.
A widening of the wealth gap between young and old, and the significant educational and employment challenges posed risk "another lost generation”, Peter Giger, group chief risk officer of Zurich Insurance, said at the report’s online launch on Tuesday.
“Social disruptions will be felt by people worldwide, hitting the poorest parts of our societies disproportionally,” Mr Giger said.
The report highlighted the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of a 3 per cent contraction in global GDP this year, the World Trade Organisation’s estimate of global trade shrinking 13to 23 per cent and the United Nations’ Conference on Trade and Development’s prediction that foreign direct investment will fall by 30 to 40 per cent.
The pandemic adds a risk of countries “turning in” on themselves, said Ngaire Woods, dean of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government.
“When people can’t physically travel, the risk that politicians use the crisis and the fear and anxiety caused by it to pursue a kind of xenophobic nationalism is present in every continent of the world,” she said, adding that such moves increase the risk of international conflict.
“With a public health crisis and an economic crisis, the world does not also need a security and conflict crisis. No government in the world can afford that at the moment,” Ms Woods said.
She said that after a decade of monetary easing, governments are set to become "investors of last resort", which could lead to them setting new standards for corporate behaviour.
Companies are “on the hook to adapt and innovate at great speed at a time of considerable uncertainty and great stress, as well as weaker finances,” said Richard Smith-Bingham, executive director of consultancy Marsh and McLennan Advantage. “Refashioning supply chains is hard work even at the best of times, even more so during a protracted crisis.”
He said that by probing the risks from the pandemic now, the WEF report “should help us to work towards a new normal that we want and avoid blundering into a weaker version of what we had before”.
Global GDP could be 5.3 per cent lower than it would otherwise have been as a result of the pandemic, equating to a loss of about $26.8 trillion, according to a mid-range consensus of economists polled by the Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.
Forecasts ranged from a $3.3tn loss, equivalent to 0.4 per cent of five-year GDP at the optimistic end of the scale, or an $82.4tn loss, or 16.3 per cent, at the pessimistic end.
The calculations “are not forecasts, but rather are projections based on various plausible scenarios that could unfold in the next five years related to the economic impact of Covid-19", said the centre’s chief scientist, Andrew Coburn.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Kanye%20West
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
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The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. The Intruder
Director: Deon Taylor
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Michael Ealy, Meagan Good
One star
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
One in four Americans don't plan to retire
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, according to a poll that suggests a disconnection between individuals' retirement plans and the realities of ageing in the workforce.
Experts say illness, injury, layoffs and caregiving responsibilities often force older workers to leave their jobs sooner than they'd like.
According to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 23 per cent of workers, including nearly two in 10 of those over 50, don't expect to stop working. Roughly another quarter of Americans say they will continue working beyond their 65th birthday.
According to government data, about one in five people 65 and older was working or actively looking for a job in June. The study surveyed 1,423 adults in February this year.
For many, money has a lot to do with the decision to keep working.
"The average retirement age that we see in the data has gone up a little bit, but it hasn't gone up that much," says Anqi Chen, assistant director of savings research at the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. "So people have to live in retirement much longer, and they may not have enough assets to support themselves in retirement."
When asked how financially comfortable they feel about retirement, 14 per cent of Americans under the age of 50 and 29 per cent over 50 say they feel extremely or very prepared, according to the poll. About another four in 10 older adults say they do feel somewhat prepared, while just about one-third feel unprepared.
"One of the things about thinking about never retiring is that you didn't save a whole lot of money," says Ronni Bennett, 78, who was pushed out of her job as a New York City-based website editor at 63.
She searched for work in the immediate aftermath of her layoff, a process she describes as akin to "banging my head against a wall." Finding Manhattan too expensive without a steady stream of income, she eventually moved to Portland, Maine. A few years later, she moved again, to Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Sometimes I fantasise that if I win the lottery, I'd go back to New York," says Ms Bennett.
The Vines - In Miracle Land
Two stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
