As parts of the global economy move slowly toward reopening, it is becoming clearer that a full recovery from the worst slump since the 1930s will be impossible until a vaccine or treatment is found for the coronavirus.
Consumers will stay on edge, and companies will be held back as temperature checks and distancing rules remain in workplaces, restaurants, schools, airports, sports stadiums and more.
China – the first major economy consumed by the virus and the first to re-emerge – has been able to revive production but not demand. The lesson for other economies: there will be a stop-start path back toward normal.
There is also the risk of more flare-ups of the virus. About 108 million people in northeast China have been put back under varying degrees of lockdown as a new cluster of infections was reported. Doctors said the coronavirus has manifest differently, suggesting that it may be changing.
In South Korea – where the virus was controlled without a hard lockdown – consumer spending remains weak as infections continue emerge.
Sweden’s highly contested response left much of the economy open, yet the country is still headed for its worst recession since the Second World War.
That means policy makers – who have announced trillions of dollars of fiscal and monetary support – will need to keep the stimulus flowing to avoid more company failures and job losses. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said that a full recovery will need to wait until the scientists deliver, a warning echoed by his Australian counterpart.
“If we don’t get breakthroughs on the medical front, then I think it’s going to be quite a slow recovery,” Australia’s central bank chief, Philip Lowe, said last week. “We’ve got a lot resting on the shoulders of the scientists here.”
Harvard University professor Carmen Reinhart, the incoming chief economist of the World Bank, had a similar message. “We’re not going to have something akin to full normalisation unless we (a) have a vaccine and (b) – and this is a big if – that vaccine is accessible to the global population at large,” she told the Harvard Gazette.
With global infections exceeding 5.4 million and a death toll of about 345,000, there is an air of desperation for good news on either a vaccine or effective anti-viral.
Shares in US-based pharmaceuticals company Moderna hit a record on Monday on early data from a small trial of its coronavirus vaccine. It gave up some of those gains as investors weighed the early nature of the vaccine data.
A survey of money managers by Bank of America found the biggest tail risk is a second wave of the virus that means restrictions will have to be re-imposed. Only 10 per cent expect a rapid rebound, the bank said in a note titled V Is For Vaccine.
The race for a cure has a geopolitical edge, too. US President Donald Trump has vowed a Manhattan Project-style effort dubbed Operation Warp Speed to develop a cure, while Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to make one universally available once it is developed.
The fusion of when successful drugs can be found and when economies can get back to normal is dominating sentiment in financial markets.
“There is a global bounty on the virus,” said Stephen Jen, who runs hedge fund and advisory firm Eurizon SLJ Capital in London. “I don’t see how it is wiser for investors to bet on the virus than to bet on science, technology, and unlimited political and financial capital in the world to contain and defeat the virus.”
Health experts said that the process for developing an effective immunity will take time – possibly years. And even then, it will need distribution on an unprecedented scale, according to Anita Zaidi, director of vaccine development and surveillance at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
“I am optimistic we can develop a vaccine by the end of 2020,” she said during a discussion hosted by Bloomberg New Economy. “I am not very hopeful that we can deploy a vaccine for mass use by the end of 2020 because of the scale needed to immunise the whole world.”
Deutsche Bank economists are working on the basis that a vaccine or a cure will not be widely available for the next 18 months.
In the meantime, the cogs of global commerce are all but still. The International Monetary Fund said the Great Lockdown recession would be the steepest in almost a century. More than a billion workers are at high risk of a pay cut or losing their job, the International Labour Organisation said in April. World merchandise trade volume is likely to fall “precipitously” in the first half of 2020, according to the World Trade Organisation.
Critically, consumer confidence is shattered. One example: UK retail sales dropped by almost a fifth in April.
Bloomberg Economics estimated that the lockdowns triggered a drop in activity of about 30 per cent and its research found that the first steps to relax controls will have a more positive impact on activity than later ones.
Central bank chiefs, who have had to resort to considering scenarios instead of hard forecasts, are staying in crisis mode.
Mr Powell has pledged to keep using the Fed’s tools. The Bank of Japan, in an emergency meeting on Friday, launched a lending programme worth 30 trillion yen (Dh1tn/$279 billion) to support small businesses as a key inflation gauge slid below zero in April for the first time in more than three years. India’s central bank cut interest rates in an unscheduled announcement on Friday to their lowest level since 2000.
While the world waits for a vaccine, workers employed in areas such as tourism will need to be re-skilled and shifted to where there is demand, a process that will take time, said Shaun Roache, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
“Without a medical solution, either a vaccine or effective therapy, persistent behaviour change would lead to large structural shifts in the economy,” he said.
Big employers are already adapting to the new, new normal.
Facebook planned to hire more remote workers in areas where the company does not have an office, and allow some current employees to work from home permanently. JPMorgan Chase expected to keep its offices half occupied at the most for the “foreseeable future.”
The circuit breaker to all of this would be a scientific breakthrough, said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist.
“A vaccine would change everything,” he said.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
MATCH INFO
Borussia Dortmund 0
Bayern Munich 1 (Kimmich 43')
Man of the match: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich)
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
match info
Athletic Bilbao 1 (Muniain 37')
Atletico Madrid 1 (Costa 39')
Man of the match Iker Muniain (Athletic Bilbao)
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
The%20specs
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What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
RESULTS
5pm: Rated Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Abubakar Daud
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Tair, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner: Son Of Normandy, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
SCHEDULE
December 8: UAE v USA (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 9: USA v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 11: UAE v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 12: UAE v USA (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 14: USA v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 15: UAE v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
All matches start at 10am
The specs: Audi e-tron
Price, base: From Dh325,000 (estimate)
Engine: Twin electric motors and 95kWh battery pack
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Power: 408hp
Torque: 664Nm
Range: 400 kilometres
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
Results
International 4, United States 1
Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods (US) beat Marc Leishman and Joaquin Niemann (International) 4 and 3.
Adam Hadwin and Sungjae Im (International) beat Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay (US) 2 up.
Adam Scott and Byeong Hun An (International) beat Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau (US) 2 and 1.
Hideki Matsuyama and C.T. Pan (International) beat Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed (US) 1 up.
Abraham Ancer and Louis Oosthuizen (International) beat Dustin Johnson and Gary Woodland (US) 4 and 3.
In%20the%20Land%20of%20Saints%20and%20Sinners
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERobert%20Lorenz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Liam%20Neeson%2C%20Kerry%20Condon%2C%20Jack%20Gleeson%2C%20Ciaran%20Hinds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
