As parts of the global economy move slowly toward reopening, it is becoming clearer that a full recovery from the worst slump since the 1930s will be impossible until a vaccine or treatment is found for the coronavirus.
Consumers will stay on edge, and companies will be held back as temperature checks and distancing rules remain in workplaces, restaurants, schools, airports, sports stadiums and more.
China – the first major economy consumed by the virus and the first to re-emerge – has been able to revive production but not demand. The lesson for other economies: there will be a stop-start path back toward normal.
There is also the risk of more flare-ups of the virus. About 108 million people in northeast China have been put back under varying degrees of lockdown as a new cluster of infections was reported. Doctors said the coronavirus has manifest differently, suggesting that it may be changing.
In South Korea – where the virus was controlled without a hard lockdown – consumer spending remains weak as infections continue emerge.
Sweden’s highly contested response left much of the economy open, yet the country is still headed for its worst recession since the Second World War.
That means policy makers – who have announced trillions of dollars of fiscal and monetary support – will need to keep the stimulus flowing to avoid more company failures and job losses. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said that a full recovery will need to wait until the scientists deliver, a warning echoed by his Australian counterpart.
“If we don’t get breakthroughs on the medical front, then I think it’s going to be quite a slow recovery,” Australia’s central bank chief, Philip Lowe, said last week. “We’ve got a lot resting on the shoulders of the scientists here.”
Harvard University professor Carmen Reinhart, the incoming chief economist of the World Bank, had a similar message. “We’re not going to have something akin to full normalisation unless we (a) have a vaccine and (b) – and this is a big if – that vaccine is accessible to the global population at large,” she told the Harvard Gazette.
With global infections exceeding 5.4 million and a death toll of about 345,000, there is an air of desperation for good news on either a vaccine or effective anti-viral.
Shares in US-based pharmaceuticals company Moderna hit a record on Monday on early data from a small trial of its coronavirus vaccine. It gave up some of those gains as investors weighed the early nature of the vaccine data.
A survey of money managers by Bank of America found the biggest tail risk is a second wave of the virus that means restrictions will have to be re-imposed. Only 10 per cent expect a rapid rebound, the bank said in a note titled V Is For Vaccine.
The race for a cure has a geopolitical edge, too. US President Donald Trump has vowed a Manhattan Project-style effort dubbed Operation Warp Speed to develop a cure, while Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to make one universally available once it is developed.
The fusion of when successful drugs can be found and when economies can get back to normal is dominating sentiment in financial markets.
“There is a global bounty on the virus,” said Stephen Jen, who runs hedge fund and advisory firm Eurizon SLJ Capital in London. “I don’t see how it is wiser for investors to bet on the virus than to bet on science, technology, and unlimited political and financial capital in the world to contain and defeat the virus.”
Health experts said that the process for developing an effective immunity will take time – possibly years. And even then, it will need distribution on an unprecedented scale, according to Anita Zaidi, director of vaccine development and surveillance at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
“I am optimistic we can develop a vaccine by the end of 2020,” she said during a discussion hosted by Bloomberg New Economy. “I am not very hopeful that we can deploy a vaccine for mass use by the end of 2020 because of the scale needed to immunise the whole world.”
Deutsche Bank economists are working on the basis that a vaccine or a cure will not be widely available for the next 18 months.
In the meantime, the cogs of global commerce are all but still. The International Monetary Fund said the Great Lockdown recession would be the steepest in almost a century. More than a billion workers are at high risk of a pay cut or losing their job, the International Labour Organisation said in April. World merchandise trade volume is likely to fall “precipitously” in the first half of 2020, according to the World Trade Organisation.
Critically, consumer confidence is shattered. One example: UK retail sales dropped by almost a fifth in April.
Bloomberg Economics estimated that the lockdowns triggered a drop in activity of about 30 per cent and its research found that the first steps to relax controls will have a more positive impact on activity than later ones.
Central bank chiefs, who have had to resort to considering scenarios instead of hard forecasts, are staying in crisis mode.
Mr Powell has pledged to keep using the Fed’s tools. The Bank of Japan, in an emergency meeting on Friday, launched a lending programme worth 30 trillion yen (Dh1tn/$279 billion) to support small businesses as a key inflation gauge slid below zero in April for the first time in more than three years. India’s central bank cut interest rates in an unscheduled announcement on Friday to their lowest level since 2000.
While the world waits for a vaccine, workers employed in areas such as tourism will need to be re-skilled and shifted to where there is demand, a process that will take time, said Shaun Roache, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
“Without a medical solution, either a vaccine or effective therapy, persistent behaviour change would lead to large structural shifts in the economy,” he said.
Big employers are already adapting to the new, new normal.
Facebook planned to hire more remote workers in areas where the company does not have an office, and allow some current employees to work from home permanently. JPMorgan Chase expected to keep its offices half occupied at the most for the “foreseeable future.”
The circuit breaker to all of this would be a scientific breakthrough, said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist.
“A vaccine would change everything,” he said.
more from Janine di Giovanni
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The rules of the road keeping cyclists safe
Cyclists must wear a helmet, arm and knee pads
Have a white front-light and a back red-light on their bike
They must place a number plate with reflective light to the back of the bike to alert road-users
Avoid carrying weights that could cause the bike to lose balance
They must cycle on designated lanes and areas and ride safe on pavements to avoid bumping into pedestrians
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
India squads
T20: Rohit Sharma (c), Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Rishabh Pant, Washington Sundar, Krunal Pandya, Yuzvendra Chahal, Rahul Chahar, Deepak Chahar, Khaleel Ahmed, Shivam Dube, Shardul Thakur
Test: Virat Kohli (c), Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Hanuma Vihari, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant
RESULTS
6pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $40,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
6.35pm: Race of Future – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Global Storm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Azure Coast, Antonio Fresu, Pavel Vashchenko
7.45pm: Business Bay Challenge – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Storm Damage, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
20.20pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed (TB) $100,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Appreciated, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill
8.55pm: Singspiel Stakes – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O'Meara
9.30pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Meraas, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
More from Aya Iskandarani
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The details
Colette
Director: Wash Westmoreland
Starring: Keira Knightley, Dominic West
Our take: 3/5
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 63 17 63
2 Liverpool 25 17 6 2 64 20 57
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 49 18 50
4 Man Utd 26 13 7 6 44 34 46
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5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 45 34 42
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6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 36 26 42
7 Wolves 24 12 4 8 23 18 40
8 Tottenham 23 12 4 8 31 31 39
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct to Kolkata from Dh1,504 and Dh1,450 return including taxes, respectively. The flight takes four hours 30 minutes outbound and 5 hours 30 minute returning.
The trains
Numerous trains link Kolkata and Murshidabad but the daily early morning Hazarduari Express (3’ 52”) is the fastest and most convenient; this service also stops in Plassey. The return train departs Murshidabad late afternoon. Though just about feasible as a day trip, staying overnight is recommended.
The hotels
Mursidabad’s hotels are less than modest but Berhampore, 11km south, offers more accommodation and facilities (and the Hazarduari Express also pauses here). Try Hotel The Fame, with an array of rooms from doubles at Rs1,596/Dh90 to a ‘grand presidential suite’ at Rs7,854/Dh443.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How do Sim card scams work?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards by claiming to be the victim, often pretending their phone has been lost or stolen in order to secure a new Sim.
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
South Africa squad
: Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wkt), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
T20 WORLD CUP QUALIFIER
Results
UAE beat Nigeria by five wickets
Hong Kong beat Canada by 32 runs
Friday fixtures
10am, Tolerance Oval, Abu Dhabi – Ireland v Jersey
7.30pm, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi – Canada v Oman
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Levante v Getafe (5pm), Sevilla v Real Madrid (7.15pm), Atletico Madrid v Real Valladolid (9.30pm), Cadiz v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday Granada v Huesca (5pm), Osasuna v Real Betis (7.15pm), Villarreal v Elche (9.30pm), Alaves v Real Sociedad (midnight)
Monday Eibar v Valencia (midnight)
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
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MATCH INFO
Red Star Belgrade v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight (Thursday), UAE
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
england euro squad
Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Man Utd), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Defenders: John Stones (Man City), Luke Shaw (Man Utd), Harry Maguire (Man Utd), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Man City), Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa), Reece James (Chelsea), Conor Coady (Wolves), Ben Chilwell (Chelsea), Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid)
Midfielders: Mason Mount (Chelsea), Declan Rice (West Ham), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Kalvin Phillips (Leeds)
Forwards: Harry Kane (Tottenham), Marcus Rashford (Man Utd), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Phil Foden (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Leganes v Getafe (12am)
Levante v Alaves (4pm)
Real Madrid v Sevilla (7pm)
Osasuna v Valladolid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Eibar v Atletico Madrid (12am)
Mallorca v Valencia (3pm)
Real Betis v Real Sociedad (5pm)
Villarreal v Espanyol (7pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Barcelona v Granada (12am)
Crime%20Wave
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Age 26
Born May 17, 1991
Height 1.80 metres
Birthplace Sydney, Australia
Residence Eastbourne, England
Plays Right-handed
WTA titles 3
Prize money US$5,761,870 (Dh21,162,343.75)
Wins / losses 312 / 181
AS IT STANDS IN POOL A
1. Japan - Played 3, Won 3, Points 14
2. Ireland - Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1, Points 11
3. Scotland - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Points 5
Remaining fixtures
Scotland v Russia – Wednesday, 11.15am
Ireland v Samoa – Saturday, 2.45pm
Japan v Scotland – Sunday, 2.45pm
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SEMI-FINAL
Monterrey 1
Funes Mori (14)
Liverpool 2
Keita (11), Firmino (90 1)
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
