The expected re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran will dent its consumer outlook in 2018 and beyond, as the country’s economy stalls, and high unemployment holds back domestic consumption.
“The consumer outlook in Iran had already been under pressure prior to the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal and will only deteriorate further,” BMI Research, a Fitch Group company, said in a report.
Consumer-facing companies are also less likely to want to do business in Iran following President Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Iran nuclear agreement earlier this month, hampering the sector’s growth.
“The US sanctions will make Iran’s business environment more difficult to operate in as not only does the withdrawal block American firms from doing business in the country, but it also bars other foreign firms who are doing business in Iran from accessing the US banking and financial systems,” BMI said. “Firms that also have exposure to the US market are therefore unlikely to want to maintain or expand their Iranian presence for fear of US sanction-related penalties and backlash in the US market.”
Iran is one of the largest consumer markets in the Middle East and North Africa, with a sizeable young consumer base. However, political tensions have delayed regulatory reforms to develop the private sector, and deteriorating economic conditions, high inflation along with rising unemployment have led to widespread protests. The country's economy made saw some improvement following the removal of US and EU sanctions after the nuclear deal was inked in 2015. However the economy is expected to contract this year as oil exports and foreign investment ebb after the US withdrawal and subsequent re-imposition of American sanctions.
Iran's economy will grow 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 0.8 per cent in 2019, BMI said in a revised forecast last week. It had estimated growth at 4.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent previously.
________________
Read more:
Iran’s economy to deteriorate following the re-imposition of US sanctions, BMI says
Total may need to offload Iran gas stake amid looming US sanctions, analysts
Exclusive: Total to apply for waiver if US withdraws from Iran deal
________________
Unemployment in Iran rose to 11.8 per cent of the labour force as of March 2018, as recent upticks in hydrocarbon exports and foreign investment failed to spur job creation. Youth unemployment is especially high, standing at 28.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017, up from 27.3 per cent in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the rial is expected to place inflationary pressure on Iran’s consumer sector. Inflation reached 8.3 per cent year-on-year in March 2018 and is expected to average 10.5 per cent in 2018, up from 10 per cent in 2017, according to BMI. This week, Iran sought to halt the rial's decline by lowering its official value versus the dollar implying it is likely to let the value of the currency shift against the greenback based on supply and demand but avoid a free-fall, Reuters reported. The move follows a crackdown by Tehran last month aimed at stamping out a free currency market and the government unifying official and free-market rates for the currency at a single value of 42,000 rial to the dollar.
BMI expects domestic investment and consumption will remain restricted by limited credit availability. Interest rates are in the double digits and many banks are reluctant to lend to the private sector, after efforts to recapitalise and restructure the banking sector failed amid political tensions, the report said.
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
The biog
Marital status: Separated with two young daughters
Education: Master's degree from American Univeristy of Cairo
Favourite book: That Is How They Defeat Despair by Salwa Aladian
Favourite Motto: Their happiness is your happiness
Goal: For Nefsy to become his legacy long after he is gon
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Q&A with Dash Berlin
Welcome back. What was it like to return to RAK and to play for fans out here again?
It’s an amazing feeling to be back in the passionate UAE again. Seeing the fans having a great time that is what it’s all about.
You're currently touring the globe as part of your Legends of the Feels Tour. How important is it to you to include the Middle East in the schedule?
The tour is doing really well and is extensive and intensive at the same time travelling all over the globe. My Middle Eastern fans are very dear to me, it’s good to be back.
You mix tracks that people know and love, but you also have a visually impressive set too (graphics etc). Is that the secret recipe to Dash Berlin's live gigs?
People enjoying the combination of the music and visuals are the key factor in the success of the Legends Of The Feel tour 2018.
Have you had some time to explore Ras al Khaimah too? If so, what have you been up to?
Coming fresh out of Las Vegas where I continue my 7th annual year DJ residency at Marquee, I decided it was a perfect moment to catch some sun rays and enjoy the warm hospitality of Bab Al Bahr.
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Read more about the coronavirus
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SMG%20Studio%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Team17%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
US%20federal%20gun%20reform%20since%20Sandy%20Hook
%3Cp%3E-%20April%2017%2C%202013%3A%20A%20bipartisan-drafted%20bill%20to%20expand%20background%20checks%20and%20ban%20assault%20weapons%20fails%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20July%202015%3A%20Bill%20to%20require%20background%20checks%20for%20all%20gun%20sales%20is%20introduced%20in%20House%20of%20Representatives.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2012%2C%202016%3A%20Orlando%20shooting.%20Barack%20Obama%20calls%20on%20Congress%20to%20renew%20law%20prohibiting%20sale%20of%20assault-style%20weapons%20and%20high-capacity%20magazines.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20October%201%2C%202017%3A%20Las%20Vegas%20shooting.%20US%20lawmakers%20call%20for%20banning%20bump-fire%20stocks%2C%20and%20some%20renew%20call%20for%20assault%20weapons%20ban.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20February%2014%2C%202018%3A%20Seventeen%20pupils%20are%20killed%20and%2017%20are%20wounded%20during%20a%20mass%20shooting%20in%20Parkland%2C%20Florida.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20December%2018%2C%202018%3A%20Donald%20Trump%20announces%20a%20ban%20on%20bump-fire%20stocks.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20August%202019%3A%20US%20House%20passes%20law%20expanding%20background%20checks.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20April%2011%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20announces%20measures%20to%20crack%20down%20on%20hard-to-trace%20'ghost%20guns'.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20May%2024%2C%202022%3A%20Nineteen%20children%20and%20two%20teachers%20are%20killed%20at%20an%20elementary%20school%20in%20Uvalde%2C%20Texas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2025%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20first%20federal%20gun-control%20bill%20in%20decades.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Victims%20of%20the%202018%20Parkland%20school%20shooting
%3Cp%3EAlyssa%20Alhadeff%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EScott%20Beigel%2C%2035%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMartin%20Duque%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ENicholas%20Dworet%2C%2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAaron%20Feis%2C%2037%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJaime%20Guttenberg%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EChris%20Hixon%2C%2049%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELuke%20Hoyer%2C%2015%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECara%20Loughran%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EGina%20Montalto%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJoaquin%20Oliver%2C%2017%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlaina%20Petty%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMeadow%20Pollack%2C%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EHelena%20Ramsay%2C%2017%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20Schachter%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECarmen%20Schentrup%2C%2016%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPeter%20Wang%2C%2015%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20RB%20Sarab%2C%20Allaia%20Tiar%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.30pm%3A%20Mamsha%20Alkhair%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mutaqadim%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Emirates%20Fillies%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Almotajalliah%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.30pm%3A%20Emirates%20Colts%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fadwaan%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh2%2C500%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mujeeb%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.30pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Western%20Writer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Results
2pm Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,800m
Winner AF Al Baher, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Alla Mahlak, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner Davy Lamp, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 1,400m
Winner Ode To Autumn, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner Arch Gold, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
4.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,800m
Winner Meqdam, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
5pm Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner Native Appeal, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
5.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Amani Pico, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Company%20Profile
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Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
