Economic growth in Oman is expected to accelerate this year and next, as the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer outside Opec boosts oil and gas exports, BMI Research said.
Real gross domestic product - GDP adjusted for inflation - is projected to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.6 per cent in 2019, from an estimated 0.6 per cent last year, BMI, a unit of Fitch Ratings said in a report released on Thursday. However, the outlook from 2020 and beyond is more bearish on oil and gas output and real GDP is expected to moderate, unless the sultanate makes new oil and gas discoveries, it said.
“We expect Oman to see a substantial uptick in real GDP growth over the coming quarters, on the back of rising hydrocarbon sector output," BMI said. "Oil and gas production gains will facilitate an increase in exports, as well as government revenue, which in turn will have knock-on effects on government consumption, fixed investment and private consumption.
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Read more:
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Overall, BMI estimates Oman’s production of crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent in 2019, from 2 per cent in 2017. The recently initiated production at the Khazzan tight gas field will offer a massive boost to gas output, driving overall hydrocarbon sector growth, with oil production in particular, set to climb in 2019.
BMI forecasts an average Brent price of $75 per barrel in 2019 and $67 in 2018, which are both higher than $54 per barrel in 2017. It expects 2018 will mark the end of Opec-stipulated oil supply cuts, facilitating an uptick in production levels for producers such as Oman.
Oil proceeds make up about 70 per cent of the Oman’s government revenue. The decline in oil prices has forced Muscat to raise debt and privatise some state assets. The sultanate, which is trying to diversify its economy and cut its dependence on hydrocarbons, does not have access to the large cash buffers enjoyed by some of its GCC peers, and therefore has to rely more heavily on capital markets to plug fiscal deficits.
Moody's Investors Service this week downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings of Oman by a notch to Baa3. The agency cited larger fiscal deficits and the ongoing weakening of its economy due to subdued growth in the coming years.
The rating agency forecasts Oman’s fiscal deficit to remain at 5 to 7 per cent of GDP in the next five years. The government’s debt burden will exceed 50 per cent of GDP by 2019 and rise above 60 per cent by 2021, up from 40.5 per cent at end-2017. The Omani government, which sold $5 billion worth of bonds a year ago, tapped the debt markets again in January via a $6.5bn bond, the country's largest.
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs: 2018 Jaguar F-Type Convertible
Price, base / as tested: Dh283,080 / Dh318,465
Engine: 2.0-litre inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 295hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.2L / 100km
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Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
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