Myanmar risks losing billions of dollars of foreign direct investment and diminished growth prospects after the South East Asian slipped back into military rule this week.
The country, which is already reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that halted several projects, risks an exodus of international investors.
"We're going to get a situation where there's going to be a knee-jerk natural reaction where investors just stop. They don't need to be encouraged," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi.
"Any further investment is just going to halt and there will be outflows, people will be rushing to get their money out," said Mr Innes, who is based in neighbouring Thailand.
Capital flight will deal a significant blow to Myanmar's economy, which has been heavily reliant on foreign direct investment to revitalise certain critical sectors. Trading on the four-year old Yangon Stock Exchange, which has six listed companies, was suspended after the benchmark fell 6 per cent following the coup.
The power and infrastructure sectors have been the biggest beneficiaries of foreign investment following the end of the military junta rule in 2011. The sector drew more than $21.8 billion, accounting for a fifth of overall FDI in the financial year 2019-20, according to Fitch Analytics.
Myanmar, which also has significant gas reserves estimated at 23 trillion cubic feet risks $2bn worth of projects reaching final investment decision, according to consultancy WoodMackenzie.
Companies with longer-term infrastructure or exploration deals must be "nervous", said Tim Dobermann, an economist covering Myanmar.
"Renegotiating existing gas export contracts is likely to prove contentious and may not be a fight the military government wants to take up at this point in time," he added.
The country, formerly known as Burma, is likely to see a backlash from investors as international sanctions are likely to be applied against the military regime.
G7 foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US and the High Representative of the European Union, condemned the coup in Myanmar.
They called upon the military to immediately end the state of emergency, restore power to the democratically-elected government, to release all those unjustly detained including Aung San Suu Kyi and to respect human rights and the rule of law.
The 10-member Asean bloc, which comprises South East Asian nations that Myanmar belongs to, called for peaceful dialogue.
Most of the big investors in Myanmar come from the surrounding region as the country straddles both South and South East Asia.
China, for instance is the biggest foreign investor in the power and infrastructure sector, accounting for 29 per cent of all investments.
Other key foreign investors in the infrastructure space are India with a 14 per cent share, followed by Japan with an 11 per cent interest.
Following the end of the junta rule, Myanmar had become an exporter of gas to Thailand and China.
There may be pressure on the country's exports, Mr Innes said.
However, gas projects that are Chinese-led are unlikely to face cancellations as Beijing has previously co-operated with the military and Ms Suu Kyi, according to WoodMackenzie.
Myanmar's Asean neighbours are also likely to be cautious, factoring in the economic impact on the country and the region as a whole before taking a political stand, said Mr Innes.
"For Asean [countries], it becomes more of an economical impact because trade barriers are more closely linked in this area," Mr Innes said.
South East Asia's economy as a whole is set to have contracted by 4.4 per cent in 2020, according to the Asian Development Bank. The region is set to rebound to growth of 2.2 per cent in 2021, which is significantly lower than forecasts for South and Central Asia, which are expected to see 4.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent growth rates, respectively.
Myanmar, touted as Asia's last frontier economy managed to avoid a contraction last year, expanding 1.8 per cent. Prior to the coup, the ADB projected the economy would grow 6 per cent in 2021.
The political turmoil is likely to have a significant impact on the country's power and infrastructure sectors, which have already been weakened by the pandemic, making access to finance challenging.
The political unrest in the country has already led to the suspension of work across construction sites in Yangon, Myanmar's largest city and the former capital.
Fitch Solutions also warned of higher Covid-19 infections in the country following mass protests against the government. The analytics firm revised its forecasts for the power and infrastructure sectors over the near and medium term on the basis of significant headwinds.
Project developers and financiers are likely to withhold final investment decisions on projects due to the "elevated risks in the market", the report added.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Kibsons%20Cares
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COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Blah
Started: 2018
Founder: Aliyah Al Abbar and Hend Al Marri
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and talent management
Initial investment: Dh20,000
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 40
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Results
2pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: Mouheeb, Tom Marquand (jockey), Nicholas Bachalard (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Honourable Justice, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dark Silver, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Dark Of Night. Antonio Fresu, Al Muhairi.
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Habah, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
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MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
MATCH INFO
Schalke 0
Werder Bremen 1 (Bittencourt 32')
Man of the match Leonardo Bittencourt (Werder Bremen)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
