Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia. The firm's IPO is set to be the country's largest ever. Reuters
Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia. The firm's IPO is set to be the country's largest ever. Reuters

Kingdom predicts wave of foreign funds to ease path of Aramco IPO



Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange expects an influx of foreign funds to smooth the listing of national oil company Saudi Aramco, despite concern among some analysts about whether the market can absorb the huge offer, the exchange’s chief executive said on Sunday.

“Foreign investors are putting in more money — every day we have improved liquidity capacity,” said Khalid Al Hussan.

The government has plans to sell about 5 per cent of Aramco, hoping to raise some $100 billion or more in what is likely to be the world’s biggest initial public offer. Saudi officials have said that in addition to Riyadh, Aramco may list on one or more foreign markets such as New York, London and Hong Kong.

Many private analysts think the $100bn target is too ambitious, but even a $50bn IPO could strain the Saudi market, which has a capitalisation of about $500bn — especially if the burden is not shared with a foreign exchange.

Saudi Arabia’s biggest IPO so far, the sale of a stake in National Commercial Bank in 2014, raised just $6bn. In January this year, an advisory council to the government asked the securities regulator to study whether the Aramco sale might destabilise the market.

Mr Al Hussan insisted, however, that from technical and regulatory perspectives, the Tadawul was fully prepared to handle the Aramco IPO, alone if necessary.

He said that foreign investors were not permitted to buy shares directly in the NCB offer. Now, rules have been changed to permit foreigners to take part in local IPOs.

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Read more:

Aramco considers expansion of biggest US refinery

Foreign investors pile into Saudi Arabia in March amid kingdom's FTSE upgrade

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Mr Al Hussan also said last month’s decision by equity index compiler FTSE Russell to upgrade Saudi Arabia to emerging market status, and a similar decision which fund managers expect MSCI to make in June, would attract billions of dollars of fresh foreign money to the local market.

Regional investment bank EFG Hermes estimates Saudi Arabia could see fund inflows totalling $30bn to $45bn in the next two years if it reaches the foreign ownership levels of markets such as the UAE.

Some foreign money has started to enter the Saudi market in anticipation of a positive impact from the FTSE and MSCI decisions. Foreign investors, including qualified foreign institutions, have been buyers of stocks every week this year, purchasing a net $2.17bn, exchange data shows.

“What we have seen at the beginning of this year from foreign investor participation and the cash inflows and the number of registered QFIs in the market, gives us a very comfortable state,” Mr Al Hussan said.

He did not comment on the timing of the Aramco IPO. Officials originally said it would take place by the end of this year, but Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Reuters last month that it could occur at the end of 2018 or in early 2019, depending on market conditions.

If Saudi officials are relying on foreign fund inflows to facilitate the Aramco IPO, they may be tempted to wait until early 2019.

“Passive” funds benchmarked to FTSE indexes will only enter Saudi Arabia when its upgrade takes effect, in stages between March 2019 and December that year. Similarly, if MSCI decides to upgrade Riyadh, the decision would probably only take effect in mid-2019.

Passive funds may account for roughly a third to a half of foreign mutual funds entering Saudi Arabia in the next couple of years, fund managers estimate.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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