Iran’s economy is expected to slow this year as oil exports and foreign investment inflows ebb after the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and subsequent expected re-imposition of sanctions on the country, according to BMI Research.
“Already-limited foreign investment inflows will be further discouraged by elevated political uncertainty and risks of US penalties and reputational damage,” said the report by BMI Research, part of the Fitch Group.
BMI Research downgraded its Iranian real GDP growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 0.8 per cent in 2019, from 4.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent previously, following President Donald Trump’s decision to end US participation in the nuclear deal that came into effect in 2016.
Iran is likely to experience depreciatory pressures on the rial and rising inflation as a result of lower foreign currency inflows that will constrain domestic investment and consumption.
US sanctions are also likely to cause a drop in Iranian oil exports by around 500,000 barrels per day from late 2018, after having averaged 2.5 million bpd in 2017, BMI Research said.
Iran is home to the world’s largest reserves of gas and is the Middle East’s third-largest oil producer. When some US-European sanctions on Iran were lifted in 2016, it managed to reinstate its production capacity to pre-sanctions levels and boost its exports to Europe and Asia.
But President Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement is set to cause Iranian economic growth to decelerate. Barely a fortnight since the decision was announced, French oil major Total said this week it may have to sell its stake in a $4.8 billion Iranian gas deal to avoid being penalised by the US sanctions.
Total has a 50.1 per cent stake in the 20-year South Pars project, alongside China National Petroleum Corporation, which holds a 30 per cent and Iran’s Petropars which has a 19.9 per cent stake.
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Total said in a statement on Wednesday it would “unwind all related operations” before the 180-day period for companies to stop engaging with Iranian entities, unless it obtained an exemption from US authorities. The possible exit would come as a blow to Iran’s slowly expanding energy industry.
Meanwhile, general elevated political and security risks will act as major deterrents to many other existing or prospective foreign investors in Iran, as they seek to avoid sanctions-related penalties and reputational damage, BMI Research said.
“European governments may take steps to encourage and/or protect domestic businesses with exposure to Iran from US sanctions. These steps, however, are unlikely to prove sufficient to convince firms that also have exposure to the US to maintain or expand their Iranian presence,” the report said.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The advice provided in our columns does not constitute legal advice and is provided for information only. Readers are encouraged to seek independent legal advice.
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Los Angeles, from Dh4,975 return, including taxes. The flight time is 16 hours. Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico and Southwest all fly direct from Los Angeles to San Jose del Cabo from Dh1,243 return, including taxes. The flight time is two-and-a-half hours.
The trip
Lindblad Expeditions National Geographic’s eight-day Whales Wilderness itinerary costs from US$6,190 (Dh22,736) per person, twin share, including meals, accommodation and excursions, with departures in March and April 2018.
The%20specs
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