Once the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India is set to post the steepest quarterly decline in gross domestic product in Asia as it quickly becomes the global hotspot for coronavirus infections.
With more than 65,000 new infections a day and total cases topping 3 million in a country of 1.3 billion people, India’s road to recovery appears to be a long and hard one. A mix of monetary and fiscal measures to prop up the economy have fallen short, leaving millions of people jobless and destitute, and businesses on the brink of bankruptcy.
Data due to be released on Monday is expected to show GDP declined 18 per cent in the quarter to June from the same period in 2019, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the sharpest contraction since the nation started publishing quarterly figures in 1996, and is worse than any of the main Asian economies tracked by Bloomberg.
Even before the pandemic struck, Asia’s third-largest economy was in the middle of a slowdown as a crisis in the shadow bank sector hurt new loans and took a toll on consumption, which accounts for about 60 per cent of India’s GDP.
The lockdown from mid-March to contain the pandemic was a blow to the economy like no other. It brought activity to a virtual halt as businesses shut down and millions of workers fled cities for their rural homes. That has put GDP on course for the first annual contraction in more than four decades – a full-year decline of 5.6 per cent, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.
Rahul Bajoria, the chief India economist at Barclays, is estimating a 25.5 per cent contraction in GDP for the last quarter, given the “unprecedented blow to the economy” from the lockdown.
“With the national lockdown measures being extended through all of April and May, and most states extending their own partial restrictions through all of June, the rural economy, government spending and essentials will likely be the only sectors mitigating some of the decline,” Mr Bajoria, who's based in Mumbai, said.
According to the Reserve Bank of India, transport services, hospitality, recreation and cultural activities are particularly affected in the $2.8 trillion (Dh10.27tn) economy. The shock to demand is so severe that “it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-Covid-19 momentum”, the RBI said in its annual report.
"Our analysis shows some sectors of the economy – agriculture, information technology services and central government expenditure –recorded year-on-year growth despite the disruptions due to the pandemic," Abhishek Gupta, Bloomberg India economist, said.
"These sectors have slightly ameliorated the negative impact of the lockdown, but the drop in GDP is still expected to be large and only marginally better than our earlier expectation."
In addition, there is a higher level of uncertainty around last quarter’s data, given the lack of field surveys conducted by the statistics office during the lockdown, which led to incomplete inflation and industrial production reports in April and May.
With activity in India’s vast informal sector, which makes up almost half of the GDP, unlikely to be reported, output in the formal sector could be used as a proxy and overestimate growth.
“The statistics office could announce GDP contraction of 17.5 per cent year-on-year, which could subsequently be revised to a 25 per cent contraction when the informal sector survey is available,” said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC in Mumbai.
What I am worried about is the structural fault lines that this extreme economic shock will expose over the longer term, and how many years it will take for the economy to get back where it was
The pandemic has caused historic GDP contractions in economies around the world. In India, the situation is made worse by limited fiscal support, leaving the onus on the central bank to provide the bulk of the stimulus. The RBI has cut interest rates by 115 basis points so far this year, boosted liquidity and transferred billions of rupees in dividends to the government. But with inflation above the central bank’s target, it is probably reaching the end of its easing cycle, leaving little scope for more support.
Economists expect growth to rebound to above 7 per cent next year, mostly led by pent-up domestic demand, and a recovery in farming and exports. Yet, that is likely to fall short of the recovery that followed the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, when growth averaged 8.2 per cent in the two fiscal years after the crisis, boosted by massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and a swift global rebound.
The pandemic aside, India still has deep-rooted structural problems – from a struggling and weak banking sector to high public debt – which will divert government resources away from responding to the current crisis.
“What I am worried about is the structural fault lines that this extreme economic shock will expose over the longer term, and how many years it will take for the economy to get back where it was,” said Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, an economist at TS Lombard, which is based in Gurugram, near New Delhi.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
