The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic forecast for a second time this year as a result of quicker Covid-19 vaccination campaigns and fiscal and monetary support provided by governments and central banks, But it warned policymakers about wider income gaps and an uneven recovery as richer countries rebound faster from the pandemic.
The global economy is now set to grow by 6 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 5.5 per cent, the Washington lender said in its latest update to its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.
The revision comes after a 3.3 per cent contraction last year as Covid-19 disrupted trade, hindered travel and caused lockdowns worldwide as unemployment and poverty rose.
Next year's growth is projected at 4.4 per cent, compared with an earlier estimate of 4.2 per cent.
The fund issues its growth forecasts every three months and is holding its spring meetings this week alongside the World Bank. The growth outlook depends on success of vaccination programmes and how effectively economic policies can limit lasting damage from the world's deepest recession since the Great Depression, the fund said.
While medium-term losses for the global economy were expected to be smaller than during the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, "the cross-country pattern of damages is, however, likely to be different this time," the IMF's chief economist Gita Gopinath said.
Poor countries and emerging markets were set to endure more hardship, compared to a decade earlier when advanced economies were hit hard hit by the global financial crisis, Ms Gopinath said.
“These divergences, however, are not just occurring between countries but also within them," she said.
Income inequality within countries is set to increase due to young workers and those with relatively lower skills being more heavily affected in not only advanced but also emerging markets and developing economies, according to the fund.
The fund said 150 economies are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, with the figure dropping to 110 countries next year.
Female employment rates remain below those of men and continues to exacerbate disparities, Ms Gopinath said.
Employment declined in sectors with larger concentrations of younger or lower-skilled workers and in sectors that are more vulnerable to automation. Many of the jobs lost amid the pandemic are unlikely to return due to hastened digitisation and automation, she said.
The divergent recovery paths of countries are poised to create wider gaps in living standards, compared with pre-pandemic expectations.
The average annual loss in per capita gross domestic product from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 5.7 per cent in poor countries and 4.7 per cent in emerging markets, while losses in advanced economies are expected to be smaller at 2.3 per cent.
The losses are reversing gains recorded in efforts to reduce poverty, Ms Gopinath said. An additional 95 million people were considered extremely poor last year, compared with pre-pandemic projections.
On Monday, the fund extended $238m in debt service relief to 28 poor countries through to October 15.
The revision in global growth is largely underpinned by advanced economies expanding about 5.1 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 4.3 per cent, after they contracted 4.7 per cent last year.
The US, the world’s largest economy, is set to benefit from the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion recovery package that has been compared to former president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal economic programme, which helped the country out of the Great Depression.
Growth in the US is now projected at 6.4 per cent this year after it contracted shrank 3.5 per cent last year.
European growth will be more muted as countries on the continent face challenges with the distribution of vaccines.
Several European countries have had to lock down amid looming second and third waves of Covid-19 infections.
Germany, Europe’s largest and the world’s fourth-biggest economy, is now expected to grow 3.6 per cent this year.
France’s economy is expected to rebound by 5.8 per cent while Italy, which was hard hit by the pandemic and had the second-highest number of coronavirus deaths last April, will rebound by a modest 4.2 per cent.
China will grow 8.4 per cent this year. The world's second-biggest economy introduced strict movement restrictions to contain the pandemic and was able to reopen its economy and grow 2.3 per cent last year. Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is projected to grow 3.3 per cent after it contracted by a similar degree last year.
India, which has the third-highest rate of infections in the world after the US and Brazil, is set to grow by 12.5 per cent after contracting 8 per cent last year.
The UK, the world’s sixth-largest economy, is projected to grow 5.3 per cent after a 9.9 per cent contraction last year.
Mena economies are expected to grow an average 4 per cent this year after shrinking 3.4 per cent.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is set to grow 2.9 per cent after shrinking about 4.1 per cent. The UAE's economy is set to expand by 3.1 per cent. Egypt, the Arab world’s third-largest economy, is set to grow 2.5 per cent.
Global trade is set to improve after a rebound in the second half of last year due to pent-up demand for consumer durables from advanced economies such as cars and the resumption of supply chains in emerging markets, the fund said.
Trade is now set to expand 8.4 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year after shrinking 8.5 per cent in 2020, according to the fund’s estimates.
Inflation in advanced economies is this year set to remain below central bank targets of 1.6 per cent and average 4.9 per cent in emerging market and developing economies.
The fund raised its projections on oil prices. It now expects the price of oil to be about $58.52 a barrel this year and $54.83 a barrel next year. The average price of oil was $41.29 a barrel last year.
Much still depends on the race between the virus and vaccines
Ms Gopinath repeated her cautionary remarks in January regarding persistent uncertainty about growth and the pace of recovery around the world.
“Much still depends on the race between the virus and vaccines. Greater progress with vaccinations can uplift the forecast, while new virus variants that evade vaccines can lead to a sharp downgrade," she said.
"Large divergences in recovery speeds also raise the prospect of divergent policy stances.”
The IMF said last year’s “severe collapse could have been about at least three times as large had it not been for the swift policy support worldwide”.
Globally, governments provided $16tn in fiscal support last year, backed by $9tn in monetary accommodation from central banks.
Last year’s downturn saddled emerging market and developing countries with more debt and limited their capacity to address rising poverty and inequality levels.
Looking ahead, Ms Gopinath said “averting divergent outcomes will require, above all, resolving the health crisis everywhere”.
“Economic policies will need to limit persistent damage, secure the recovery and prepare for the post-Covid world, while being mindful of available policy space,” she said.
Given the limitations of countries and higher debt levels, policies need to be “better targeted to maintain the ability to support economic activity through this uncertain period as the race between the virus and vaccines unfolds”, Ms Gopinath said.
“A tailored approach will be necessary, with policies well-calibrated to the stage of the pandemic, strength of the economic recovery and social and economic circumstances of individual countries," she said.
“Once the health crisis is over, policy efforts can focus more on building resilient, inclusive and greener economies, both to bolster the recovery and to raise potential output.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20OneOrder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tamer%20Amer%20and%20Karim%20Maurice%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E82%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Match info
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
Sterling (14'), Bernardo Silva (64')
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 (Gundogan 56')
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 (Solomon 69')
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Kathmandu.%20Fares%20with%20Air%20Arabia%20and%20flydubai%20start%20at%20Dh1%2C265.%3Cbr%3EIn%20Kathmandu%2C%20rooms%20at%20the%20Oasis%20Kathmandu%20Hotel%20start%20at%20Dh195%20and%20Dh120%20at%20Hotel%20Ganesh%20Himal.%3Cbr%3EThird%20Rock%20Adventures%20offers%20professionally%20run%20group%20and%20individual%20treks%20and%20tours%20using%20highly%20experienced%20guides%20throughout%20Nepal%2C%20Bhutan%20and%20other%20parts%20of%20the%20Himalayas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on Quran memorisation:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
SPECS
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Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS: 2018 WORLD CUP QUALIFYING - EUROPE
Albania 0 Italy 1
Finland 2 Turkey 2
Macedonia 4 Liechtenstein
Iceland 2 Kosovo 0
Israel 0 Spain 1
Moldova 0 Austria 1
Serbia 1 Georgia 0
Ukraine 0 Croatia 2
Wales 0 Ireland 1
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rob%20Marshall%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHalle%20Bailey%2C%20Jonah%20Hauer-King%2C%20Melissa%20McCarthy%2C%20Javier%20Bardem%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: James Mullan
Nationality: Irish
Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470hp%2C%20338kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20620Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh491%2C500%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
