Economies in the Middle East and Central Asia will shrink by 4.7 per cent this year due to Covid-19 and lower oil prices, the International Monetary Fund said.
The contraction is two percentage points more than what it forecast in April, the fund said in its latest economic outlook for the region.
It is also in line with the revised outlook for the world economy, which will shrink by 4.9 per cent this year, according to the IMF.
The fund said the pandemic will continue to test the resilience of Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies, given the “unusually high uncertainty” of its impact on businesses and the risk posed by potential oil market volatility.
Although the region’s response to the pandemic was swift and saved lives, the fund said the impact on domestic economic activity was significant.
“A sharp decline in oil prices, together with production cuts among oil exporters and disruptions in trade and tourism added further headwinds,” it said.
Oil prices, which fell by more than 70 per cent this year, recovered after the Opec+ group of oil exporters, led by its biggest producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to output cuts to curtail supply.
However, crude prices remain significantly lower than the peak they reached last year.
While several countries in the region have begun to reopen their economies, the fund said rising infection numbers could pose risks.
The virus has infected more than 12.8 million people worldwide and killed more than 568,000, according Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking the outbreak.
The fund projects a cumulative loss of more than $12 trillion (Dh44tn) to the global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the 1930s.
Governments worldwide, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE – the two biggest Arab economies, have pumped in an additional $11tn (Dh40.4tn) into their economies to limit the economic damage caused by the pandemic. The size of fiscal support stood at $8tn (Dh29.38tn) in April.
Despite this, the IMF said downside risks remain. It expects a sluggish global recovery of 5.4 per cent next year.
Within the broader Middle East and Central Asia region, the pull back is largely driven by economies in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, where growth this year is expected to be two percentage points weaker than what the IMF forecast in April.
The fund expects the Menap region's real gross domestic product to shrink by 5.1 per cent this year, before expanding next year by 3.1 per cent.
In contrast, growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region was revised down by half a percentage point on the back of strong policy responses in some countries and lower oil production cuts than those observed in the Menap region, the fund said.
“Despite supportive policies, growth revisions appear to be linked to lockdowns and mobility,” the IMF said.
“Countries with the highest lockdown stringency or lower workplace mobility also showed bigger real GDP revisions since the April 2020 [estimates].”
The fund said the economies of oil-exporting nations in the Menap region are expected to contract by 7.3 per cent this year and expand by 3.9 per cent in 2021.
The downward revisions reflect the “double whammy” caused by oil price fluctuations and pandemic-linked restrictions.
The non-oil sectors of these economies also had their growth forecasts lowered due to Covid-19 restrictions that disrupted the tourism, hospitality, transportation and retail sectors, the fund said.
The economies of oil-importing nations in the Menap region are projected to contract by 1.1 per cent as forecast in April. However, there are substantial differences across countries.
This year's growth forecast has been lowered for several economies including Afghanistan, Djibouti, Jordan, Morocco and Sudan as sluggish growth in their trading partners is expected to have a “stronger-than-previously-projected impact on manufacturing and tourism exports”, the fund said.
Economic conditions in Lebanon, which is facing its worst financial crisis in three decades, continue to deteriorate, with a double-digit contraction expected this year, the IMF said.
Lebanon's annual inflation rate stood at 56 per cent in May while its currency has lost about two thirds of its value against the US dollar despite the imposition of informal capital controls.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The five pillars of Islam
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
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Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi
April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi
April 5: T20I, Rawalpindi
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Race results:
1. Thani Al Qemzi (UAE) Team Abu Dhabi: 46.44 min
2. Peter Morin (FRA) CTIC F1 Shenzhen China Team: 0.91sec
3. Sami Selio (FIN) Mad-Croc Baba Racing Team: 31.43sec
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
The five pillars of Islam
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Day 4, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Not much was expected – on Sunday or ever – of Hasan Ali as a batsman. And yet he lit up the late overs of the Pakistan innings with a happy cameo of 29 from 25 balls. The highlight was when he launched a six right on top of the netting above the Pakistan players’ viewing area. He was out next ball.
Stat of the day – 1,358 There were 1,358 days between Haris Sohail’s previous first-class match and his Test debut for Pakistan. The lack of practice in the multi-day format did not show, though, as the left-hander made an assured half-century to guide his side through a potentially damaging collapse.
The verdict As is the fashion of Test matches in this country, the draw feels like a dead-cert, before a clatter of wickets on the fourth afternoon puts either side on red alert. With Yasir Shah finding prodigious turn now, Pakistan will be confident of bowling Sri Lanka out. Whether they have enough time to do so and chase the runs required remains to be seen.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
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Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier
Results
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by 12 runs
Kuwait beat Iran by eight wickets
Oman beat Maldives by 10 wickets
Bahrain beat Qatar by six wickets
Semi-finals
UAE v Qatar
Bahrain v Kuwait
High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Need to know
Unlike other mobile wallets and payment apps, a unique feature of eWallet is that there is no need to have a bank account, credit or debit card to do digital payments.
Customers only need a valid Emirates ID and a working UAE mobile number to register for eWallet account.
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Racecard
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
