The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for the year for the fourth time since October, saying trade tensions and continued Brexit uncertainty could impede a “precarious” recovery next year.
Global economic growth, already at the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, is estimated to slow to 3.2 per cent in 2019, a 0.1 percentage point drop from the IMF’s 3.2 per cent projection last April, as lower inflation and softer growth projections of economies around the world point to weaker economic activity.
The world economy will accelerate 3.5 per cent in 2020, slower than the April projection of 3.6 per cent, the international lender said in its latest World Economic Outlook.
“Policy actions and missteps have played an important role in shaping these outcomes, not least through their impact on market sentiment and business confidence,” the IMF said. Errors in policymaking and the associated uncertainties will have a “severely debilitating effect on sentiment, growth and job creation”.
The projected growth pickup next year also remains precarious and hinges on several factors, IMF's chief economist said.
“Close to 70 per cent of this improvement relies on an improvement in growth performance in stressed emerging markets and developing economies, and is therefore subject to high uncertainty,” Gita Gopinath, IMF economic counsellor and director of research, said.
The global output revision is the fourth by the IMF in the past nine months, mainly as a result of a trade war between the US and China, the two largest economies. Since the IMF's review last April, the US further increased tariffs on some Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising levies on a subset of American goods.
However, the two countries agreed to a temporary pause on imposing additional duties following the June G20 meeting, where President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade negotiations.
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, along with senior officials, will travel to China next Monday for a high-level, face-to-face negotiation with Chinese authorities. The meeting will involve a broad discussion of the issues outstanding and isn't expected to yield major breakthroughs, according to Bloomberg.
Global equities rallied after the IMF cut growth outlook, which comes a week before the US Federal Reserve is due to meet and expected to lower interest rates. The S&P 500 was up 0.6 per cent, the Dow 0.6 per cent and Nasdaq 0.5 per cent at the close of US trading late Tuesday.
Continued confusion over the UK’s divorce from the European Union is another cloud hanging over the global economy. Newly elected British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his government will leave the European bloc with or without a deal by the October 31 deadline. However, a disorderly Brexit will have implications for global trade, the IMF said.
“Global growth is sluggish and precarious but it does not have to be this way, because some of this is self-inflicted,” Ms Gopinath said.
Trade volume growth globally declined to around 0.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019 and is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent this year. Volumes are expected to bounce back, growing 3.7 per cent, which is at par with the pace of growth in 2018, but lower than 5.5 per cent in 2017, the IMF said.
“The principal risk factor to the global economy is that adverse developments –including further US-China tariffs, US auto tariffs, or a no-deal Brexit – sap confidence, weaken investment, dislocate global supply chains, and severely slow global growth below the baseline,” according to the fund.
Emerging and developing Asia is expected to grow 6.2 per cent this year and next. China’s GDP is forecast to expand 6.2 per cent in 2019 and 6 per cent in 2020, a 1 percentage point drop for each year, relative to April's projections.
India’s economy is set to grow 7 per cent this year, picking up to 7.2 per cent in the next. The downward 0.3 percentage point revision for both years reflects a weaker-than-expected outlook for domestic demand in Asia’s third largest economy, the IMF said.
For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.9 per cent in 2019 and 1.7 per cent in 2020, 0.1 percentage point higher than in April. The US is expected to see a 2.6 per cent growth GDP growth, a 0.3 percentage point jump from IMF’s last estimate, moderating to 1.9 per cent in 2020 as the fiscal stimulus unwinds. Growth in the euro area is projected at 1.3 per cent in 2019 and 1.6 per cent in 2020, the IMF said.
Economies in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan are forecast to expand by 1 per cent in 2019, a 0.5 percentage point drop from April estimates, largely due to the downward revision to the forecast for Iran, which is facing crippling US sanctions.
Growth in the region is expected to accelerate to about 3 per cent in 2020 on the improved prospects for Saudi Arabia’s economy, where the non-oil sector is expected to strengthen this year on the back of higher government spending and improved business confidence. The oil sector growth is also projected to grow next year.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
The Beach Bum
Director: Harmony Korine
Stars: Matthew McConaughey, Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg
Two stars
More from Neighbourhood Watch
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELong-range%20dual%20motor%20with%20400V%20battery%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E360kW%20%2F%20483bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E840Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20628km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh360%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
Dubai World Cup prize money
Group 1 (Purebred Arabian) 2000m Dubai Kahayla Classic - $750,000
Group 2 1,600m(Dirt) Godolphin Mile - $750,000
Group 2 3,200m (Turf) Dubai Gold Cup – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Turf) Al Quoz Sprint – $1,000,000
Group 2 1,900m(Dirt) UAE Derby – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Dirt) Dubai Golden Shaheen – $1,500,000
Group 1 1,800m (Turf) Dubai Turf – $4,000,000
Group 1 2,410m (Turf) Dubai Sheema Classic – $5,000,000
Group 1 2,000m (Dirt) Dubai World Cup– $12,000,000
FA%20Cup%20semi-final%20draw
%3Cp%3ECoventry%20City%20v%20Manchester%20United%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Chelsea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Games%20to%20be%20played%20at%20Wembley%20Stadium%20on%20weekend%20of%20April%2020%2F21.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v IRELAND
All matches start at 10am, and will be played in Abu Dhabi
1st ODI, Friday, January 8
2nd ODI, Sunday, January 10
3rd ODI, Tuesday, January 12
4th ODI, Thursday, January 14
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
