Huge global debt not necessarily a major headache



Global debt has never been higher, the IMF said last week, urging countries to take advantage of current strong GDP growth rates and reduce it before economic and financial stability come under serious threat.

Certainly, some of the figures in the IMF's latest fiscal report were eye-catching: debt at the end of 2016 was $164 trillion, or 225 per cent of global GDP; almost half of the rise since 2007 has come from China alone; government debt-to-GDP in advanced economies has only ever been higher once in history, around the time of the Second World War.

And in a world of sub-par inflation and weak wage growth, higher nominal debt on both national and individual levels is a potential worry because the real value of that debt continues to rise.

"There is no room for complacency," the IMF warned.

But there are reasons why this warning may ring hollow.

Firstly, an increase in borrowing and credit to revive the world economy following the financial crisis is exactly what the IMF and global financial authorities wanted.

Interest rates have been floored at zero for a decade, central banks have pumped over $10tn of QE into the global financial system and governments have unleashed a tsunami of fiscal stimulus not seen since for decades.

Strong medicine, no doubt, but it was needed. And it worked. By and large, the world financial system is stronger now than it was in 2007, the world economy is posting its strongest synchronised growth since 2011, and inflation remains conspicuous by its absence.

For several years post-2008, a lack of demand for credit was policymakers' biggest big fear. Surely now, therefore, higher borrowing reflects a welcome increase in confidence among individuals and companies.

Rising debt is, in itself, not necessarily a bad thing.

Conservative orthodoxy holds that borrowing must be kept in check so future generations don't pay for the excesses of today, to avoid currency debasement, and prevent inflation from exploding.

But companies and governments need to borrow to expand and support growth. As Charlie Robertson at Renaissance Capital notes, most of the increase has been in the public sector. And of the growth in private sector borrowing, China accounts for 75 per cent.

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Read more:

Central banks nervous at prospect of a trade war

China's growth tops estimates supported by consumer demand

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He said the idea that governments might have borrowed more when interest rates are the lowest in a century is not that surprising. What is more interesting is why in so many countries, the private sector has not borrowed more, and when might that change.

Countries that borrow in their own currency are inured from exchange rate risk and imported inflation. Japan has long had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, but its bond yields and interest rates have long been the lowest in the world.

Even Italy, albeit backed by European Central Bank QE, has historically low borrowing costs despite shouldering the second-largest debt load in the world.

Of course, emerging market countries are different. They often borrow in dollars and so are exposed to fluctuations in exchange rates, US interest rates and Treasury bond yields.

And the borrowing binge over the past decade has been led by emerging markets. China alone has accounted for 43 per cent of the increase in global debt since 2007, or $21tn.

In the case of China, the growth in private sector debt has been an increasing tail risk for investors. The fear is this bubble bursts and the fallout spreads to the rest of the world.

But despite periodic scares in recent years, this hasn't happened. Many analysts say China's FX reserves of more than $3tn are a sufficiently large rainy day fund to ensure private sector debt poses little threat to the economy at large.

At the end of 2007, global FX reserves stood at $6.7tn. Central banks' FX reserves now are more than $11tn, the bulk of which is held by emerging market countries. That's a pretty big cushion.

Finally, global interest rates and bond yields may not rise much further from current levels. The historically long US economic expansion may not have much further to run, and parts of the US money market and swaps curves show investors now expect the Fed to start cutting rates in 2020.

The US bond yield curve is the flattest in over a decade, which gives credence to the view that a slowdown is looming. History shows that should the curve invert, recession will follow.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has been stuck below 3 per cent for seven years. While it could break above at any time there's little to suggest it will go too much higher, far less for a sustained period of time.

Few people anticipate a 4 per cent handle.

Reuters

MATCH INFO

What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany

Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

The specs

Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8

Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm

Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km

Price: Dh380,000

On sale: now 

The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

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THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

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Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

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THE LOWDOWN

Romeo Akbar Walter

Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher 

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

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PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP

Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)

Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)

'The Lost Daughter'

Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson

Rating: 4/5

Thanksgiving meals to try

World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.

Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as  well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.

Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.

The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.

Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.

If you go

The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Santiago, via Sao Paolo cost from Dh5,295 with Emirates


The trip
A five-day trip (not including two days of flight travel) was split between Santiago and in Puerto Varas, with more time spent in the later where excursions were organised by TurisTour.
 

When to go
The summer months, from December to February are best though there is beauty in each season

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

 

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The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company

Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas

Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa

Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong

Rating: 3/5

Dubai Women's Tour teams

Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport 
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club 
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team