Commodities took a kicking in 2018 - with deep losses in everything from oil, coal and copper to coffee and sugar - so what’s in store for the 12 months to come?
There is a busy period ahead. The US-China trade fight will be in the news next week, with a US delegation in Beijing for talks from Monday. In addition, there’ll be more pointers on the macroeconomic outlook, with the World Bank updating its Global Economic Prospects report on Tuesday and a speech from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.
Oil's well
The standout feature in commodity markets last quarter was crude’s swoon from four-year high into a bear market. The drivers of the reversal were record US shale output, a clutch of sanctions waivers on Iranian flows, and a supply cut from Opec+ deemed by some as too little. Concern about a deteriorating global economic outlook gave bears further ammunition. After that drama, prices may recover, with supply risks underappreciated.
In 2019, watch for more losses in crisis-hit Venezuela as supply risks tumbling below 1 million barrels a day. On top of that, US waivers on Iranian cargoes are temporary, and not all may be renewed in May, according to Bloomberg. And don’t underestimate Saudi Arabia's resolve to make the cuts stick. Opec’s next meeting is in April, and prices may have regained some ground by then. The median Brent forecast tracked by Bloomberg is $68 a barrel, compared with about $57 at present.
Golden Opportunity
Gold bulls seized the initiative in the final months of 2018 and there’s plenty to suggest the haven may hold up. Look for support for prices at a six-month high as the Federal Reserve goes way slower on rate increases, and investors seek protection from equity market turmoil and slowing global growth.
There may be more supportive headlines near term. A golden cross - as the 50-day moving average tops its 200-day counterpart - is close, and a few more tonnes added to exchange-traded funds will lift holdings to the highest since 2013. A December 11-19 survey of 20 analysts and traders reflected a positive tone, with the median estimate of $1,325 an ounce. Futures slipped Friday after topping $1,300.
Wired for success
Copper dropped every quarter last year in the worst run since 2015. The metal was hurt by concerns that global growth is slowing, and the US-China trade fight. Still, investors may this year focus more on the supportive backdrop offered by industry indicators. Among these are global stockpiles tracked by exchanges, with holdings in London Metal Exchange sheds at a decade-low.
That drop has come as demand tops supply by some margin: 595,000 tonnes in the nine months to September, according to the International Copper Study Group. Miners highlight lower grades. And just as trade-war swings hurt copper in 2018, the same could be true in 2019 - but in reverse. Should Washington and Beijing settle some issues, copper could gain. Prices recovered ground on confirmation of the talks. The median of forecasts tracked by Bloomberg puts the metal, which was last at $5,920 a metric ton, above $6,400.
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Read more:
Trump credits his ‘talent’ for oil price drop
Investors need to look out for 'doom loop' risks ahead
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Slowing ships of soya beans
Soyabeans get a boost from any inkling of improving trade relations between the US and China, and that narrative should continue to dominate trading in 2019. The oilseed rallied in late 2018 after a meeting between US and Chinese leaders resulted in the Asian nation resuming some imports of American beans. Traders, though, were disappointed by the extent of the purchases.
Farmers in America are hopeful the two nations will reach an accord before the end of a 90-day truce. The key question for trading desks remains whether China, the hitherto top US soyabean buyer, will agree to reduce tariffs on US agricultural products. Brazil’s coming harvest is also a major factor: farmers there are looking at yet another bumper year and that rush of supply would further suppress US prices, especially if China stays closed.
Last week, Cofco, China’s top food company, was asking for prices, according to four sources. The enquiries were for February and March delivery, three of the sources said.
Cofco didn’t make any purchases, according to another source and it’s still unclear if state stockpiler Sinograin bought any. Both companies declined to comment. While most traders say they haven’t heard of any sales, Chicago-based consultancy AgResource said state-run buyers probably purchased about 1.5 million tonnes.
“It was a good start to 2019 for the beans,” said Charlie Sernatinger, global head of grain futures for ED&F Man Capital Markets in Chicago. “Shorts covered off of talk that China was coming back in to buy US cargoes and forecasts for Brazil went drier.”
That sinking feeling
After averaging almost $70 a tonne last year, iron ore is at risk of a drop. The staple, dominated by flows from Brazil and Australia, will face headwinds from a slower pace of expansion in China, with steel output likely at best to plateau. Policy decisions from Beijing - especially additional stimulus amid the trade war and conduct of the anti-pollution drive - remain wild cards.
Adding to downward pressure, more supply is on the way, with Brazil’s Vale adding tonnes from the ramp-up of its S11D mine and as Anglo American restarts Minas Rio. Keep a close watch on China mills’ profitability and industry data from the mainland. Profitability tanked in the final quarter of 2018 and the purchasing managers index is back at depressed levels. Heading into the year, Morgan Stanley was among the bears, warning of a return to global oversupply and prices at $62 this year.
Old king coal
The slump in China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is likely to prove an unwelcome New Year's gift to the world's major exporters of coal.
The manufacturing gauge compiled by Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics dropped to 49.4 in December, dropping below the 50-level that demarcates growth from contraction, for the first time since July 2016.
The outcome was also below the 49.9 median forecast in a survey of analysts, and the weakest reading in almost three years.
The problem for coal producers shipping to the world's biggest commodity importer is that the PMI has a strong correlation to prices, once a lag of a month or two is factored in.
The Chinese PMI showed a solid uptrend from July 2016 to a peak of 52.4 in September 2017, a period that coincided with gains for the prices of thermal coal.
Thermal coal at Australia's Newcastle port, as assessed by Argus Media, enjoyed a strong run from June 2016 to November of that year, more than doubling to reach a peak of $110.73 a tonne, Reuters reported.
Coal reverted to the usual seasonal pattern of peaks in the northern hemisphere winter and troughs in the summer, but prices remained above the 2016 lows.
A slowing in the Chinese PMI to 50.3 in February 2018 was matched by lower coal prices by March. But a recovery in the PMI to 51.9 by May saw coal prices regain strength.
The issue for coal exporters such as Australia, Brazil and South Africa is that the Chinese PMI is now in an established downtrend, having peaked in May last year and fallen every month since, apart from a slight bump in August.
Coal has managed to hold up relatively well in that period, especially considering the rout in other commodities such as crude oil.
Newcastle coal did retreat from its seven-year high of $119.74 a tonne, reached in July last year, but it only fell as far as $97.50 in late November, and has since then actually managed to move higher, to $99.74 in the week ended December 28.
The optimistic view in the market is that the authorities will do what is necessary to ensure that economic growth remains above 6 per cent in China.
It may yet be the case that China does successfully stimulate its economy, or it may get a boost if its trade dispute with the United States is resolved in the coming months.
But unless there is some evidence to back up the optimistic scenario, coal prices would seem increasingly likely to weaken, in line with the PMI.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Women%E2%80%99s%20T20%20World%20Cup%20Qualifier
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Aggro%20Dr1ft
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Company%C2%A0profile
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
West Indies v England ODI series:
West Indies squad: Jason Holder (c), Fabian Allen, Devendra Bishoo, Darren Bravo, Chris Gayle, Shimron Hetmyer, Shai Hope, Evin Lewis, Ashley Nurse, Keemo Paul, Nicholas Pooran, Rovman Powell, Kemar Roach, Oshane Thomas.
Fixtures:
1st ODI - February 20, Bridgetown
2nd ODI - February 22, Bridgetown
3rd ODI - February 25, St George's
4th ODI - February 27, St George's
5th ODI - March 2, Gros Islet
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
Summer special
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
if you go
The flights
Fly direct to Kutaisi with Flydubai from Dh925 return, including taxes. The flight takes 3.5 hours. From there, Svaneti is a four-hour drive. The driving time from Tbilisi is eight hours.
The trip
The cost of the Svaneti trip is US$2,000 (Dh7,345) for 10 days, including food, guiding, accommodation and transfers from and to Tbilisi or Kutaisi. This summer the TCT is also offering a 5-day hike in Armenia for $1,200 (Dh4,407) per person. For further information, visit www.transcaucasiantrail.org/en/hike/
Moving%20Out%202
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SMG%20Studio%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Team17%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle
Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)
Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5