A weaker US dollar is needed to support higher oil prices and economic recovery across the GCC region, according to Saxo Bank.
Market turbulence will continue in the short-to-medium term, but the dollar will weaken in the long term and drive a reflationary recovery in global commodity prices, John Hardy, the Danish investment bank's head of FX strategy, said in a virtual briefing on Monday.
"The direction of the US dollar is critical for financial markets across the world, but particularly for oil and for GCC countries with the US dollar at the centre of gravity for the region," Mr Hardy said. "A weaker US dollar is needed to support the regional recovery, and we believe that eventually it will weaken, but this could take some time. In the meantime, there could be significant market turbulence until we can firmly state that we are on the other side of the Covid-19 crisis."
The coronavirus outbreak has claimed more than 433,000 lives and infected more than 7.9 million people worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Major economies are opening up gradually, following months of business closures, travel bans and movement restrictions to control its spread.
Governments and central banks have pumped about $10 trillion (Dh36.7tn) into the world economy to revive output, stem job losses and support small businesses, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates lower for longer to support an economic recovery from the pandemic, with almost all officials forecasting that interest rates would be kept near zero through to 2022. The central bank also said it will maintain the current level of bond purchases.
Meanwhile, the GCC's economies are being hit by the economic fallout from the virus outbreak, but also from low oil prices due to the decline in demand. Most GCC countries are also pegged to the dollar, which means "the worst risk for the GCC would be low oil prices [and a] strong US dollar", Mr Hardy said.
It will likely be a "rough ride for the rest of 2020" before the dollar weakens significantly and oil prices increase, he said.
The dollar tends to spike during a financial crisis "because tens of trillions of dollars in global financial assets are denominated in dollars", Mr Hardy said. "And when you have a crisis and liquidity goes south, you have everybody scrambling for dollars."
However, the dollar has weakened due to the Federal Reserve's vast and rapid response to the Covid-19 crisis; over a period of six weeks, it took more quantitative easing measures than during the whole of the 2008 global financial crisis.
"Because the Fed has managed to pump so much liquidity into the central bank and the global markets, they managed to turn what was a spiking dollar much lower," Mr Hardy said.
Now the question is whether dollar weakness is set to continue, but "a weak dollar tends to be associated often with quite positive conditions for the global economy", which is a long way from recovery, Mr Hardy said.
While "the total shutdown approach is going to be less likely from here", there will continue to be a "long-term suppression effect on various types of economic activity" as a result of the pandemic, he said.
Gloomy economic data and a rise in coronavirus cases in the US point to a U-shaped recovery, rather than a V-shaped recovery.
"There's been a strong, strong bid coming back in for safe haven US government treasuries all the way up to 30 years, which is to suggest the market is still on a very cautious footing here that tends to be dollar-supportive," Mr Hardy said.
With the massive oil supply overhang, it is difficult for oil prices to go much higher in the near term, for several months at least, he said.
Brent, the international benchmark, could pick up to between $50 to $70 per barrel by the first and second quarters of 2021, as demand increases and supply is balanced, Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, said in April.
However, Brent crude prices fell 2.48 per cent to $37.77 per barrel and US benchmark West Texas International dropped 3.78 per cent to $34.89 at 5.05pm UAE time due to fears that a second wave of the virus will dampen demand further.
"With our weaker dollar view, especially into 2021 – more so than this year – I would expect oil to be significantly higher in 2021," Mr Hardy said.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
WITHIN%20SAND
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
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More coverage from the Future Forum
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Carzaty%2C%20now%20Kavak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20launched%20in%202018%2C%20Kavak%20in%20the%20GCC%20launched%20in%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20140%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Automotive%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20raised%20%246m%20in%20equity%20and%20%244m%20in%20debt%3B%20Kavak%20plans%20%24130m%20investment%20in%20the%20GCC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The distance learning plan
Spring break will be from March 8 - 19
Public school pupils will undergo distance learning from March 22 - April 2. School hours will be 8.30am to 1.30pm
Staff will be trained in distance learning programmes from March 15 - 19
Teaching hours will be 8am to 2pm during distance learning
Pupils will return to school for normal lessons from April 5
This is an info box
- info goes here
- and here
- and here
The specs: Rolls-Royce Cullinan
Price, base: Dh1 million (estimate)
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 563hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 850Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 15L / 100km
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The biog
Favourite film: Motorcycle Dairies, Monsieur Hulot’s Holiday, Kagemusha
Favourite book: One Hundred Years of Solitude
Holiday destination: Sri Lanka
First car: VW Golf
Proudest achievement: Building Robotics Labs at Khalifa University and King’s College London, Daughters
Driverless cars or drones: Driverless Cars
UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Fixture
Friday, March 29, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, The Sevens, Dubai
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Fifa Club World Cup:
When: December 6-16
Where: Games to take place at Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi and Hazza bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain
Defending champions: Real Madrid
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ethree%20three%20212.7kWh%20motors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201%2C000bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E15%2C600Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20530km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh500%2C000%2B%20est%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eearly%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
RACECARD
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Land%20Forces%20-%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.35pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20Naval%20Forces%20-%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.10pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sharjah%20Air%20Force%20-%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAjman%20Presidential%20Guard%20-%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh95%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.20pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%20Creek%20Mile%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh132%2C500%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.55pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUmm%20Al%20Quwain%20and%20Ras%20Al%20Khaimah%20Joint%20Aviation%20-%20Rated%20Conditions%20(TB)%20Dh95%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fujairah%20National%20Service%20and%20Reserve%20-%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
AIR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBen%20Affleck%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMatt%20Damon%2C%20Jason%20Bateman%2C%20Ben%20Affleck%2C%20Viola%20Davis%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
RESULT
Huddersfield Town 1 Manchester City 2
Huddersfield: Otamendi (45' 1 og), van La Parra (red card 90' 6)
Man City: Agüero (47' pen), Sterling (84')
Man of the match: Christopher Schindler (Huddersfield Town)
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicola%20Coughlan%2C%20Luke%20Newton%2C%20Jonathan%20Bailey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
