GCC governments are set to ease up on fiscal austerity in 2018, benefiting from higher oil prices and from the measures they have taken in the past few years to restrain spending, reform subsidies and raise non-oil revenue.
However, by raising government spending and focusing on social stability and economic diversification, governments risk returning to the pro-cyclical policies of recent years, leaving themselves ill-prepared for the next oil price downturn.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are elevated after a whirlwind of events in 2017.
Average Brent oil prices, at around $70 per barrel so far this year, are approaching the fiscal break-even level in Saudi Arabia (A+/stable) and Oman (BBB-/negative). Fitch Ratings estimates that, under current forecasts for spending, both would post budget surpluses if Brent averages above $80 per barrel in 2018.
However, this more benign fiscal environment could prompt both countries to loosen the purse strings, preventing stabilisation of their external reserve levels and leading to a continued build-up of debt. Saudi Arabia, facing lacklustre non-oil growth, already introduced a new stimulus programme just days after announcing an expansionary 2018 budget. It has also pushed out its target of reaching fiscal balance to 2023 (from 2020 originally).
Oman’s 2017 budget deficit was in excess of what had been budgeted, despite higher-than-expected oil prices. Having to diversify the economy and provide jobs to a young, rapidly-growing and underemployed population of Omanis, the government will find it tough to let spending drop off as existing projects are completed. Whether Oman sticks to its spending targets, thereby helping stabilise its public and external debt ratios, will be key to any resolution of the negative outlook on its ratings.
_______________
Read more:
S&P affirms Abu Dhabi's ratings and forecasts economic growth for 2018
Saudi non-oil sector regains momentum in May
_______________
Bahrain, which Fitch Ratings recently downgraded to BB-/stable, is facing a challenging year even if the recent strength in oil prices is sustained, with a fiscal break-even Brent price of around $100 per barrel. Some subsidy reforms and spending restraint notwithstanding, the government has yet to identify a clear medium-term strategy to tackle high deficits. With government debt approaching 90 per cent of gross domestic product and interest costs eating up savings elsewhere on expenditure, investors are reportedly demanding clearer expressions of support from other GCC countries before committing additional funds. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings estimates that the recent $1 billion sukuk covered only around 30 to 40 per cent of Bahrain’s external financing needs this year.
In both Oman and Bahrain, concerns about social stability limit the government’s ability to rein in fiscal deficits. More broadly, the GCC countries remain exposed to the risk of terrorism as a result, to varying degrees, of regional tensions, speed of social change, and earlier oil-driven austerity measures.
In the geopolitical arena, tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran will persist and risks escalating proxy conflicts, particularly in Yemen. Increased assertiveness on the part of Saudi Arabia; Iranian influence across the region; and the direction (or sometimes perceived lack thereof) of US foreign policy under the US President Donald Trump administration including its opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran have heightened risks in this area.
We do not expect an imminent resolution to the dispute between Qatar (AA-/stable) and the Saudi/UAE-led coalition. Our recent stabilisation of Qatar’s outlook partly reflected the government’s management of the fallout from the rupture of relations with neighbours.
In Saudi Arabia, the threat of domestic challenges to reforms remains even as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has strengthened his position.
In conclusion, Fitch views the current level of oil prices as temporary. Our June Global Economic Outlook has prices moderating to an average of $65 per barrel in 2019 and $57.5 per barrel in 2020. The scale of the oil price shock, deterioration of fiscal and external balance sheets and the insufficiency of policy responses in the past years has led to rating downgrades in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Geopolitical developments directly contributed to the downgrade of Qatar’s rating last year.
Of the seven GCC sovereigns that Fitch rates, only Oman remains on a negative outlook, but geopolitics and the further deterioration of fiscal and external positions are risk factors for the ratings of all GCC sovereigns. Only Abu Dhabi and Kuwait (AA/stable) have maintained their ratings owing to the strength of their balance sheets and small fiscal deficits.
Jan Friederich is Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings and Krisjanis Krustins a director in the MEA team at Fitch Ratings, which is a member of The Gulf Bond and Sukuk Association.
The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
The%20specs
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
TOP 5 DRIVERS 2019
1 Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 10 wins 387 points
2 Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 4 wins, 314 points
3 Max Verstappen, Red Bull, 3 wins, 260 points
4 Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 2 wins, 249 points
5 Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1 win, 230 points
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Company%20profile
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The%20Kitchen
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Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Tuesday (UAE kick-off times)
Leicester City v Brighton (9pm)
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United (11.15pm)
Wednesday
Manchester United v Sheffield United (9pm)
Newcastle United v Aston Villa (9pm)
Norwich City v Everton (9pm)
Wolves v Bournemouth (9pm)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (11.15pm)
Thursday
Burnley v Watford (9pm)
Southampton v Arsenal (9pm)
Chelsea v Manchester City (11.15pm)
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The line up
Friday: Giggs, Sho Madjozi and Masego
Saturday: Nas, Lion Bbae, Roxanne Shante and DaniLeigh
Sole DXB runs from December 6 to 8 at Dubai Design District. Weekend pass is Dh295 while a one day pass is Dh195. Tickets are available from www.soledxb.com
Company%20Profile
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