The economies in the Middle East are forecast to grow at an average of 2.4 per cent this year as they recover from a challenging 2017, helped by rising oil prices and easing fiscal consolidation measures, a new study has found.
An improvement in security conditions and steady progress of economic reforms will also help gross domestic product growth expansion after three-year oil price slump and fiscal tightening hampered growth across the region, consultancy Oxford Economics and the regional chapter of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), said in the second quarter Economic Insight Middle East report released on Tuesday.
The regional economies are picking up pace of expansion, recovering from a difficult 2017 where GDP growth dropped to around 1 per cent, the report said.
"The key phrase to describe our sentiment is "cautiously optimistic", Mohamed Bardastani, ICAEW economic adviser and senior economist for the Middle East at Oxford Economics, told The National in a telephone interview on Tuesday.
Higher oil prices, which have risen to above $80 per barrel this year, their highest since November 2014 and a substantial uplift since the end of 2017, when oil prices averaged around $54 to $55 per barrel, is among the main pillars supporting the regional growth, Mr Bardastani said.
“Rising oil revenues will provide further economic assistance to predominantly oil-dependent economies,” he said.
An increase in government spending will also drive GDP growth after sovereigns were forced to tighten purse strings to compensate for dwindling hydrocarbon revenues. Government spending is expected to rise by an average of 5 per cent in the Arabian Gulf in 2018, mainly in the form of export financing, support to small and medium-sized enterprises and housing and development, he said.
In the UAE, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.6 per cent in 2018 after a seven-year low of 1.5 per cent in 2017, according to the economic outlook report.
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Increased public spending, coupled regional economic recovery and, more recently, the government’s announcement of a $13 billion (Dh47.75bn) stimulus package are among the factors that will drive growth in the UAE, the region's second biggest economy, Mr Bardastani said.
Despite the introduction of a 5 per cent VAT in January that will lift inflation to 4 per cent in 2018 weaker real estate market, UAE will still be one of the best performers in the Middle East in 2018, according to the report.
Lebanon and Iraq are each forecast to record GDP growth of 2.5 per cent, Kuwait and Jordan 2.4 per cent respectively, Bahrain 2.3 per cent and Saudi Arabia 1.8 per cent. Oman is projected to see the fastest growth of 3.6 per cent this year, although this is from a low of 0.2 per cent in 2017 and the sultanate continues to grapple with one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the Gulf, after Bahrain, Mr Bardastani added.
Average GDP growth across the GCC is forecast to reach 2.3 per cent in 2018, up from 0.1 per cent in 2017, the report said.
The key risks to pick in economic activity this year would be complacency about the rising price of oil on the part of oil-exporting GCC countries, which could cause them to shelve much-needed reforms to diversify their economies. A sharp decline in oil prices – although this is unlikely because of the Opec agreement to limit production is another risk to the GDP expansion, said Mr Bardastani.
Rising US interest rates and increased trade tensions between China and the United States are more remote causes of potential risk, as they could impact overall global GDP growth, he said.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
RIDE%20ON
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'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
Health Valley
Founded in 2002 and set up as a foundation in 2006, Health Valley has been an innovation in healthcare for more than 10 years in Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
It serves as a place where companies, businesses, universities, healthcare providers and government agencies can collaborate, offering a platform where they can connect and work together on healthcare innovation.
Its partners work on technological innovation, new forms of diagnostics and other methods to make a difference in healthcare.
Its agency consists of eight people, four innovation managers and office managers, two communication advisers and one director. It gives innovation support to businesses and other parties in its network like a broker, connecting people with the right organisation to help them further
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
