History may repeat itself for yellow metal demand as world economy looks set to slow. Reuters
History may repeat itself for yellow metal demand as world economy looks set to slow. Reuters

Gold may be about to embark on new extended rally



The three legs that supported gold's extended rally from just after the 2008 global recession until the all-time peak in 2011 may be making something of a comeback this year.

This is sparking hopes that the precious metal may finally break out of a fairly narrow five-year range, although it's still far from certain that the dynamics for a sustained rally are entrenched.

The 2008-11 rally that saw spot gold almost triple in value to reach a record of $1,920.30 an ounce was built on three pillars, namely strong physical demand from top buyers China and India, robust central bank purchases, and appetite for a safe haven investment amid the fallout from the global recession.

With all three of these factors working in concert, gold posted solid gains before likely entering a bubble market, with hot money chasing a trend that was fuelled by the usual outlandish forecasts of a never-ending spectacular rally.

However, while central bank buying remained solid, the two other legs of gold's rally, namely the largely western-driven investment buying and Indian and Chinese buying moderated after the September 2011 record.

The recovery in the global economy limited the fear-appeal of gold, while the high prices stymied physical demand in India and China.

This has meant that gold has effectively meandered in a rough range between $1,050 and $1,380 since the start of 2014.

Notwithstanding the recent 11 per cent rally from a low of $1,159.96 an ounce on August 16 to the close of $1,287.50 on January 11, gold remains within that range.

But there are some signs that gold may make an effort to challenge the upper reaches of its range in coming months.

A weaker US dollar is generally a boost to gold, especially if the reason for the lower greenback is the winding back of expectations for more interest rate increases and the ramping up of concerns about an economic slowdown.

This is currently the case, with the US Federal Reserve signalling it could be more patient with its monetary tightening.

Concern over the global economy is also increasing amid signs of softer growth in China amid the ongoing trade dispute with the administration of US President Donald Trump, and weaker manufacturing numbers in Europe and the United States.

If these concerns persist, or amplify, then western buying of gold as a hedge may increase.

Certainly there is evidence this is already occurring, with holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reaching a six-month high last week.

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Short-term drivers such as the US government shutdown and volatile equity markets are dove-tailing with the longer-term themes of slower world growth and mounting geopolitical tensions on the back of the Trump administration's upending of long-standing US foreign policies.

There are also signs that physical demand in China, the world's biggest buyer, is picking up, with net imports via the main conduit of Hong Kong rising 28 per cent in November from the prior month to the highest since July.

Net imports jumped to 37.871 tonnes in November from 29.633 tonnes in October, according to data released on December 27 by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

While not a full picture of China's gold demand, the Hong Kong data has been a reliable pointer to broader trends.

Gold demand in India may also be about to pick up as the second-biggest consumer enters the demand-heavy wedding season and exits Khar Mass, an inauspicious period in the Hindu calendar, from December 16 to January 14, during which people generally avoid holding weddings and buying gold or property.

Demand figures for the fourth quarter haven't yet been released by the World Gold Council, but third quarter numbers showed Chinese demand up 10 per cent from the same period in 2017, while India's was also 10 per cent higher.

Central bank buying has also been rising, according to the council, which reported net inflows of 148.4 tonnes in the third quarter of last year, up 22 per cent from the same period in 2017.

In fact, central bank buying for the first three quarters of 2018 is only 23.2 tonnes short of the 374.8 tonnes recorded for the whole of 2017.

As long as the three pillars of gold demand continue to work together, and supply remains steady, it's likely that gold can continue to gain.

The risk is that the many disputes and controversies surrounding the Trump administration start to resolve, thereby improving global economic sentiment.

Reuters

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final:

First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2

Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)

Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

'The worst thing you can eat'

Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines: 

Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.

Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.

Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.

Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.

Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)

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Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)

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25 under -  Antoine Rozner (FRA)

23 - Francesco Laporta (ITA), Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA), Andy Sullivan (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG)

21 - Grant Forrest (SCO)

20 - Ross Fisher (ENG)

19 - Steven Brown (ENG), Joakim Lagergren (SWE), Niklas Lemke (SWE), Marc Warren (SCO), Bernd Wiesberger (AUT)

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England (15-1)
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Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Ellis Genge, Will Stuart, George Kruis, Lewis Ludlam, Willi Heinz, Ollie Devoto, Jonathan Joseph

Top financial tips for graduates

Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:

1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.

2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.

3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.

4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.

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Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks

Following fashion

Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.

Losing your balance

You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.

Being over active

If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.

Running your losers

Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.

Selling in a panic

If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.

Timing the market

Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.

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