Global trade was more resilient during the pandemic than expected and will rebound strongly in 2021, according to the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, though the recovery will be uneven and dependent on the roll out of vaccines and easing geopolitical tensions.
Feryal Ahmadi, chief operating officer at the DMCC, which presides over companies involved in the trade of commodities that range from pulses to diamonds, said fears global trade would collapse by 13 to 32 per cent last year “did not materialise”.
However, the future of global trade is dependent on the global vaccine drive and governments’ ability to respond quickly to new waves and variants of Covid-19, according to DMCC’s The Future of Trade report.
Also key to the outlook is the relationship between the US and China, expected to be the leading drivers of global economic growth this year, and the adoption of new technologies in ports and the shipping industry to facilitate the rise of e-commerce.
“It's estimated that global trade and goods dropped by just 5.3 per cent during 2020 and was supported in part by the unprecedented policy measures implemented by governments to shore up their economies, so we're actually seeing a much brighter picture than predicted,” Ms Ahmadi said.
“This is the start of the global economic recovery underpinned by trade growth, which is very positive.”
Global trade is expected to increase by 8 per cent this year, according to the World Trade Organisation, helping to drive economic growth of 5.6 per cent which is boosted by US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion spending package. Trade growth of 4 per cent is expected in 2022.
Roberta Piermartini, chief of trade cost analysis at the WTO, said a comparison with the trade data seen after the global financial crisis demonstrates the resilience of the global economy during the pandemic.
“At that time, trade collapsed by about 10 per cent against a fall in [gross domestic product] of just 0.6 per cent,” said Ms Piermartini in a panel discussion hosted by the DMCC.
“What we observe now is a fall in GDP of 3.5 per cent – the biggest fall since the Second World War – and a much lower reduction on trade."
Ms Piermartini said the global economy has learnt from "what happened in the global financial crisis".
"The reaction in terms of fiscal stimulus has been fast and co-ordinated, but it has also been much more extensive – reaching an average of about 15 per cent of GDP, which is impressive," she added.
Ms Ahmadi said Dubai is an example of a destination where trade defied negative forecasts with volumes jumping 6 per cent in the second half of 2020. The emirate’s overall export values jumped 8 per cent in 2020, on an annual basis.
Of course, there are still uncertainties for international trade ahead.
While a strong rebound was also recorded in the US, UK and China, Ms Ahmadi said prospects in developing nations are weaker against the backdrop of new waves of coronavirus.
Insufficient production and distribution of vaccines could lead to regional growth disparities, with the spread of vaccine-resistant strains of coronavirus potentially reducing global GDP by 1 per cent and removing up to 2 per cent from global goods trade growth this year, the DMCC said.
“Of course, there are still uncertainties for international trade ahead,” said Ms Ahmadi.
“The future of trade growth will depend largely on a successful and evenly distributed roll out of Covid-19 vaccines, as well as maximising supply chain efficiencies.”
Looking ahead, while global trade has shown its resilience, it is simultaneously in the midst of profound change, said Ahmed Bin Sulayem, executive chairman and chief executive of the DMCC.
“Technology, changing consumer behaviours, the drive to combat climate change, and geopolitics will all be key contributors to its reshaping in the years ahead,” he said.
Although tensions in the US-China trading relationship are not new, the extent to which the two nations can decouple their investment and trade relationship is still an area of concern, the DMCC said.
While a “new age of protectionism” is a key risk, outright protectionism will be kept at bay because it is costly, unpredictable, and affects jobs, the trade zone said, with economic nationalism more likely to occur.
To counter rising protectionism, the DMCC urges companies to take advantage of free trade zones for commercial trading contracts, while governments should adopt macroeconomic and financial tools to promote mutually beneficial trading relationships to avoid falling back on tariffs.
"International policy co-ordination to boost trade for the more vulnerable economies is critical," said Ms Ahmadi. "This is a topic that should be the focus of international forums, such as the G7 summit taking place in the UK."
Another key focus for the future of global trade is sustainability, with China, Japan, the US, South Korea and Canada among nations to have unveiled more aggressive net zero carbon emissions targets.
At the G7 Summit in Cornwall this week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will urge members to commit to a new deal to help developing countries decarbonise their economies as he looks to lead ambitious global action on climate change.
While global efforts to ramp up climate change commitments are on track, the DMCC said the global energy transition away from fossil fuels requires investment in new technology and closer co-ordination with the private sector.
Technology can also have a “game-changing impact” on trade flows by realising efficiencies across supply chains after the pandemic shifted the acceleration towards e-commerce in the retail sector.
Mainstream businesses are now recognising the revolutionary potential of blockchain, the DMCC said, to boost efficiency and reduce costs with blockchain, decentralised finance (DeFi) and other disruptive technologies set to further accelerate trade growth.
“Since the start of 2021 alone, the total value locked into DeFi has tripled from approximately $20bn to $60bn," said DMCC.
"As digital infrastructures grow, they will continue to accelerate a ground-breaking shift in trade from the national to the global."
The resilience of global trade during the pandemic was partly due to high demand for medical goods and personal protective equipment, said Ms Piermartini.
Khatija Haque, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD, said the fiscal response from governments and the fact that people continued to be paid while they were stuck at home working or on furlough during lockdowns also helped to protect the trade industry.
With consumers in developed economies building up record levels of excess savings, they bought electronics, furniture and toys to entertain themselves.
"This is one of the reasons we saw such a sharp turnaround in the volume of global trade from the fourth quarter of last year, and particularly into Q1 2021,” said Ms Haque.
This will also fuel a much faster recovery for 2021 than the WTO expectation, she said.
“The volume of global trade in the first quarter of this year was up around 7 per cent, relative to the first quarter of last year, and that is only going to be even bigger when you go into Q2 because you're coming off a very low base,” Ms Haque said.
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20flag%20was%20first%20unveiled%20on%20December%202%2C%201971%2C%20the%20day%20the%20UAE%20was%20formed.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIt%20was%20designed%20by%20Abdullah%20Mohammed%20Al%20Maainah%2C%2019%2C%20an%20Emirati%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMr%20Al%20Maainah%20said%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20%3Cem%3EThe%20National%3C%2Fem%3E%20in%202011%20he%20chose%20the%20colours%20for%20local%20reasons.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20black%20represents%20the%20oil%20riches%20that%20transformed%20the%20UAE%2C%20green%20stands%20for%20fertility%20and%20the%20red%20and%20white%20colours%20were%20drawn%20from%20those%20found%20in%20existing%20emirate%20flags.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eamana%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Farra%20and%20Ziad%20Aboujeb%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERegulator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDFSA%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinancial%20services%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E85%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESelf-funded%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENetflix%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKris%20Fade%2C%20Ebraheem%20Al%20Samadi%2C%20Zeina%20Khoury%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadeera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERabih%20El%20Chaar%20and%20Reem%20Khattar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECleanTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHope%20Ventures%2C%20Rasameel%20Investments%20and%20support%20from%20accelerator%20programmes%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
INDIA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3ERohit%20Sharma%20(capt)%2C%20Shubman%20Gill%2C%20Cheteshwar%20Pujara%2C%20Virat%20Kohli%2C%20Ajinkya%20Rahane%2C%20KL%20Rahul%2C%20KS%20Bharat%20(wk)%2C%20Ravichandran%20Ashwin%2C%20Ravindra%20Jadeja%2C%20Axar%20Patel%2C%20Shardul%20Thakur%2C%20Mohammed%20Shami%2C%20Mohammed%20Siraj%2C%20Umesh%20Yadav%2C%20Jaydev%20Unadkat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
Profile of VoucherSkout
Date of launch: November 2016
Founder: David Tobias
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers
Sector: Technology
Size: 18 employees
Stage: Embarking on a Series A round to raise $5 million in the first quarter of 2019 with a 20 per cent stake
Investors: Seed round was self-funded with “millions of dollars”
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMay%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHusam%20Aboul%20Hosn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDIFC%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%E2%80%94%20Innovation%20Hub%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmployees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeight%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%20funding%20raised%20from%20family%20and%20friends%20earlier%20this%20year%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E660hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C100Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488km-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh850%2C000%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOctober%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
