Two red lights have caused some investors to pause for thought on Turkey. Bloomberg
Two red lights have caused some investors to pause for thought on Turkey. Bloomberg

Global markets continue the bull-run but have they forgotten Turkey?



Economic stress in Turkey is usually the first warning signal for an abrupt shift in risk tolerance for global markets.

The fear is that despite alarm around the Turkey crisis being dialled back, and US markets continuing to stretch out the bull market, a full-blown market event could still be brewing, just like in the past when Turkey headwinds worked their way up into a storm for developed markets several months later.

Another beacon of market stress is Dr Copper, as it too has flashed warning signals about ailments in the global economy.

The two red lights have caused some investors to pause for thought, while others have taken pre-emptive action and de-risked portfolios finding safety in cash with US Treasury yields close to 3 per cent.

Markets have been uncomfortable this year for hedge funds, fund managers, retail investors… only a handful appear to be enjoying the ride. Uncertainty is elevated, even if it’s not reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the so-called fear gauge.

For instance, take the bipolar view on emerging markets– that anti-emerging market sentiment had risen to peak levels, and that was before the Turkey crisis hit. Yet others see the positioning as merely a buyer’s guide, a sign that EM is well and truly ripe for a short squeeze.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research told CNBC this week that EM should lead any bounce in risk assets. Diana Amoa, fixed income portfolio manager at JP Morgan Asset Management, is also optimistic, encouraged by the performance of EM bonds during the height of the Turkey crisis. She told CNBC recently that sentiment in EM bonds was not as bad as in 2015 when everyone just wanted to get out. What could spur risk on? The obvious catalyst is any breakthrough in the trade war between the US and China.

So the question remains: are the recent signals from Turkey and copper showing a false positive?

The underlying reason why EM has struggled this year is due to the retreat by the US Federal Reserve from extraordinary monetary policy, lifting the dollar and US yields. It has also made markets more sensitive to noise such as the political wrangling from the White House on trade and everything else.

_______________

Read more:

US Fed says Trump has little effect on decision making

Turkey back in investors' spotlight as holiday relief ends

_______________

It’s hard to see the Fed cooling its heels near-term as it keeps a keen eye on inflation and attempts to bank some ammunition for the next crisis. Any relief rally on a trade resolution may be short-lived and it’s the same for developed markets. Technical analysts are calling a short-term pop in stock prices on Wall Street, but struggle to see how longer-term gains can hold.

Consensus is growing that the end is near for the bull market, that 2019 or 2020 will bring an end to the economic expansion that means we are in the last heady times of market ascent. But, remember market timing is often a weak area for investors, hence the common advice, don’t try and time the markets.

So is Turkey telling us the party is over? The chances are high that it will have again served as an early warning signal for investors.

Karen Tso is an anchor on Squawk Box Europe, CNBC. Follow her on Twitter @cnbckaren

The National and CNBC International are global content sharing partners.

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Essentials

The flights

Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours. 

The package

Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The bio

Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.

Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.

Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.

Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

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The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
MATCH INFO

Real Madrid 2

Vinicius Junior (71') Mariano (90 2')

Barcelona 0

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle

Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

'The Batman'

Stars:Robert Pattinson

Director:Matt Reeves

Rating: 5/5

Find the right policy for you

Don’t wait until the week you fly to sign up for insurance – get it when you book your trip. Insurance covers you for cancellation and anything else that can go wrong before you leave.

Some insurers, such as World Nomads, allow you to book once you are travelling – but, as Mr Mohammed found out, pre-existing medical conditions are not covered.

Check your credit card before booking insurance to see if you have any travel insurance as a benefit – most UAE banks, such as Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, have cards that throw in insurance as part of their package. But read the fine print – they may only cover emergencies while you’re travelling, not cancellation before a trip.

Pre-existing medical conditions such as a heart condition, diabetes, epilepsy and even asthma may not be included as standard. Again, check the terms, exclusions and limitations of any insurance carefully.

If you want trip cancellation or curtailment, baggage loss or delay covered, you may need a higher-grade plan, says Ambareen Musa of Souqalmal.com. Decide how much coverage you need for emergency medical expenses or personal liability. Premium insurance packages give up to $1 million (Dh3.7m) in each category, Ms Musa adds.

Don’t wait for days to call your insurer if you need to make a claim. You may be required to notify them within 72 hours. Gather together all receipts, emails and reports to prove that you paid for something, that you didn’t use it and that you did not get reimbursed.

Finally, consider optional extras you may need, says Sarah Pickford of Travel Counsellors, such as a winter sports holiday. Also ensure all individuals can travel independently on that cover, she adds. And remember: “Cheap isn’t necessarily best.”

THE SPECS

2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE

Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors

Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode

Power: 121hp

Torque: 142Nm

Price: Dh95,900

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Anxiety and work stress major factors

Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.

A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.

Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.

One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.

It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."

Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.

“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi. 

“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."

Daniel Bardsley

The more serious side of specialty coffee

While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.

The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.

Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”

One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.

Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms. 

'Brazen'

Director: Monika Mitchell

Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler

Rating: 3/5

The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

Squid Game season two

Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk 

Stars:  Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun

Rating: 4.5/5

Smart words at Make Smart Cool

Make Smart Cool is not your usual festival. Dubbed “edutainment” by organisers Najahi Events, Make Smart Cool aims to inspire its youthful target audience through a mix of interactive presentation by social media influencers and a concert finale featuring Example with DJ Wire. Here are some of the speakers sharing their inspiration and experiences on the night.
Prince Ea
With his social media videos accumulating more half a billion views, the American motivational speaker is hot on the college circuit in the US, with talks that focus on the many ways to generate passion and motivation when it comes to learning.
Khalid Al Ameri
The Emirati columnist and presenter is much loved by local youth, with writings and presentations about education, entrepreneurship and family balance. His lectures on career and personal development are sought after by the education and business sector.
Ben Ouattara
Born to an Ivorian father and German mother, the Dubai-based fitness instructor and motivational speaker is all about conquering fears and insecurities. His talk focuses on the need to gain emotional and physical fitness when facing life’s challenges. As well managing his film production company, Ouattara is one of the official ambassadors of Dubai Expo2020.

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Racecard

6.35pm: American Business Council – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m 

7.10pm: British Business Group – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,200m 

7.45pm: CCI France UAE – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m 

8.20pm: Czech Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,400m 

8.55pm: Netherlands Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m 

9.30pm: Indian Business and Professional Council – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m  

The biog

Name: Younis Al Balooshi

Nationality: Emirati

Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn

Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

The Orwell Prize for Political Writing

Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include: 

  • Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
  • Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
  • Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
  • Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
  • Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
WIDE%20VIEW
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