The prospects of a stronger global economic recovery are emerging, driven by Covid-19 vaccines and the new stimulus measures in the US but significant risks remain, according to a senior official from the International Monetary Fund.
Countries are currently rolling out coronavirus vaccines to stop the spread of the pandemic while the US, the world's largest economy, also approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to support its economy earlier this month.
"In January, we projected 2021 global growth at 5.5 per cent, but prospects of a stronger recovery are emerging, because of additional fiscal stimulus, especially in the US and the prospects of broader vaccination," Geoffrey Okamoto, first deputy managing director at IMF, told the China Development Forum on Saturday.
However, significant risks remain due to the unequal distribution of vaccines and the spread of resistant mutations that could delay recovery, he added.
"Access to vaccines remains very uneven, both across advanced and emerging economies. Low-income countries might not see significant vaccination well into 2022, and that is a problem.
“There are also uncertainties about the effectiveness of policy actions and differences in what countries can do. Some countries face limited fiscal space and higher debts. While China still has some room for manoeuvre, many others, especially low-income countries, do not.”
More than 430 million vaccines have been administered in 133 countries at a daily rate of 10 million doses, according to Bloomberg's vaccine tracker. In the US, more Americans have received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began.
China "has already completed its recovery, returning to its pre-pandemic growth levels ahead of all large economies”, Mr Okamoto said.
However, growth in the world’s second-biggest economy “still lacks balance, with private consumption lagging investment”.
Outside of China, there are worrying signs that the gap between advanced economies and emerging markets is growing, he said.
“We project that cumulative income per capita in emerging and developing countries, excluding China, between 2020 and 2022 will be 22 per cent lower than what it would have been without the pandemic.”
“That will translate into close to 90 million people falling below the extreme poverty threshold since the pandemic started.”
Many emerging markets witnessed large outflows in the early part of this month – a spillover effect from rising bond yields in the US and other developed markets, the Institute of International Finance said in a note last week.
"The fast reaction by many central banks helped to contain this effect greatly but our data shows that the tightening is still ongoing," the IIF said.
Tighter financial conditions could exacerbate vulnerabilities in countries with high public and private debt levels, Mr Okamoto said.
"We have seen recent increases in bond yields as the growth outlook of some advanced economies improves, leading markets to expect an earlier withdrawal of monetary stimulus."
Countries should "maintain economic support and calibrate it to the stage of their recovery and the pandemic" to overcome current challenges, Mr Okamoto said.
“Where the pandemic continues, the priority is to protect lives and livelihoods. As it wanes, support should become more targeted, focusing on mitigating scarring, supporting the reallocation of resources, and ensuring that the post-pandemic economy is an inclusive and sustainable one.”
The IMF has expanded concessional financing and provided debt relief to many of its poorest members to help them cope with the crisis. The fund's members are currently considering a new SDR (special drawing rights) allocation to address the need for long-term reserves, the official said.
Governments should also focus on ending the pandemic "swiftly" and ramp up vaccine production, he added.
"We must ensure that low-income countries have the financing to procure and distribute vaccines."
Efforts are being made to provide poorer nations with vaccines through the Covax initiative run by the Gavi vaccine alliance. So far, more than 30 million vaccines have been distributed to 54 countries by the organisation.
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Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
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War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Company%20profile
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Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Top 5 concerns globally:
1. Unemployment
2. Spread of infectious diseases
3. Fiscal crises
4. Cyber attacks
5. Profound social instability
Top 5 concerns in the Mena region
1. Energy price shock
2. Fiscal crises
3. Spread of infectious diseases
4. Unmanageable inflation
5. Cyber attacks
Source: World Economic Foundation
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
