As investors around the world brace for an uncertain 2019 that will test the steeliest of nerves, the outlook for debt markets in the GCC is a much brighter one, with the potential for strong risk-adjusted returns.
We expect GCC debt to outperform US and Emerging Market peers again in 2019, as it has done for much of the previous five years. Since 2013, GCC bonds have delivered stronger risk-adjusted returns than many traditional bond sectors. By adding GCC bonds, investors would have, in fact, improved portfolio returns and, perhaps more importantly today, reduced portfolio risk, a common misconception among some investors.
With many of the key ingredients for local market outperformance still in place, we expect the GCC to side step angst-filled global events like potential trade wars, new taper tantrums or emerging-market meltdowns.
One major factor supporting a positive outlook for next year is our view that the US Federal Reserve won’t aggressively raise interest rates as it trims its expectations of rate increases to two from the previous forecast of three in 2019. We don’t see rates being an important driver of returns in 2019 as they were in 2018.
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Read more:
2018 in review – how the GCC outperformed peers in bond markets
Moody's says Gulf banks' 2019 outlook stable as oil prices boost state spending
Foreigners return to pump money into Mena equity markets in November
Veteran investor Mark Mobius bullish on emerging markets in 2019
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Inflation, after all, isn’t a pressing issue, while the outlook for economic growth is more uncertain. All of this makes a case for US interest rates rising marginally, not aggressively.
One of the big themes last year was that we were at the early stage of a “credit cycle” in the GCC. We think this has further to run in next year. We have come out of three-to-four tough years and we are now entering a period where governments in the region are moving their focus to growth, from a previous fixation on fiscal consolidation. We started seeing signs of this change at the end of 2018 with several governments announcing expansionary budgets.
On top of this, the likes of Abu Dhabi this year announced a raft of stimulus measures aimed at jump-starting growth. Overall, we expect on average of 2 to 3 per cent expansion in economic activity across the GCC in 2019. This means, that as we push through next year, the region is very much on an improving trajectory.
While a stable economic backdrop remains supportive for GCC debt, perhaps the most significant event for local bonds next year is the GCC’s inclusion in JP Morgan’s emerging market bond indexes.
From late January, Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf states will enter JP Morgan’s emerging market government bond indexes, bringing with it billions of dollars of foreign investment. The move is significant as the indexes are closely followed by international investors and inclusion will not only assist GCC countries in selling bonds, but also potentially help reduce borrowing costs.
We expect more demand from international and emerging-market buyers to rise next year, helping to rectify what has traditionally been a chronic underweight stance on the region’s debt.
Another factor that underlines our constructive view on GCC debt next year is value. Relative valuations are better right now than they were 12 to 18 months ago. This makes us want to maintain significant corporate exposure, as well as high-yield exposure, an area of interest we expect to resonate with investors in 2019. Regardless, the risk versus reward proposition remains attractive. Even when conditions deteriorated during the past five years, annualised returns for GCC debt have been upwards of 5 per cent, underscoring the region’s resilience and stability.
While the outlook for GCC debt in 2019 is promising, there are potential speed bumps that could unsettle investors and markets. For instance, there is a risk that that the pace of fiscal reform across the GCC will slow, a situation that could dampen investor sentiment.
In 2018, we saw the likes of Bahrain make a significant breakthrough in terms of securing financial support from its GCC neighbours. Investors, however, need reassurance that Bahrain and others can follow through with fiscal reform measures to maintain confidence that the change is real. Fiscal “slippage” will remain a big concern next year.
Lastly, any major break down in oil prices will have repercussions for the still hydrocarbon-dependent GCC region, especially when you consider the ambitious spending plans currently under way. Our view remains that co-operation between Opec and Russia will persist. Earlier this month, Opec along with Russia and its allies reached a deal to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day, a move that helped stabilise oil prices, giving GCC government coffers a welcome fillip as well.
As we head into 2019, we are still in an environment where GCC bonds are under-represented in most investment portfolios. But as the list of worries for investors grows, GCC debt can provide the type of resilience and stability that mitigates an uncertain global backdrop.
Mohieddine Kronfol is the chief investment officer of Global Sukuk and Mena fixed income at Franklin Templeton Investments
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Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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MATCH INFO
Barcelona 5 (Lenglet 2', Vidal 29', Messi 34', 75', Suarez 77')
Valladolid 1 (Kiko 15')
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency in the world. It was created in 2009 as a new way of paying for things that would not be subject to central banks that are capable of devaluing currency. A Bitcoin itself is essentially a line of computer code. It's signed digitally when it goes from one owner to another. There are sustainability concerns around the cryptocurrency, which stem from the process of "mining" that is central to its existence.
The "miners" use computers to make complex calculations that verify transactions in Bitcoin. This uses a tremendous amount of energy via computers and server farms all over the world, which has given rise to concerns about the amount of fossil fuel-dependent electricity used to power the computers.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
PREMIER LEAGUE RESULTS
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2
Watford 0 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Newcastle United 3 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Southampton 0
Crystal Palace 0 Swansea City 2
Manchester United 2 Leicester City 0
West Bromwich Albion 1 Stoke City 1
Chelsea 2 Everton 0
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Burnley 1
Liverpool 4 Arsenal 0
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Find the right policy for you
Don’t wait until the week you fly to sign up for insurance – get it when you book your trip. Insurance covers you for cancellation and anything else that can go wrong before you leave.
Some insurers, such as World Nomads, allow you to book once you are travelling – but, as Mr Mohammed found out, pre-existing medical conditions are not covered.
Check your credit card before booking insurance to see if you have any travel insurance as a benefit – most UAE banks, such as Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, have cards that throw in insurance as part of their package. But read the fine print – they may only cover emergencies while you’re travelling, not cancellation before a trip.
Pre-existing medical conditions such as a heart condition, diabetes, epilepsy and even asthma may not be included as standard. Again, check the terms, exclusions and limitations of any insurance carefully.
If you want trip cancellation or curtailment, baggage loss or delay covered, you may need a higher-grade plan, says Ambareen Musa of Souqalmal.com. Decide how much coverage you need for emergency medical expenses or personal liability. Premium insurance packages give up to $1 million (Dh3.7m) in each category, Ms Musa adds.
Don’t wait for days to call your insurer if you need to make a claim. You may be required to notify them within 72 hours. Gather together all receipts, emails and reports to prove that you paid for something, that you didn’t use it and that you did not get reimbursed.
Finally, consider optional extras you may need, says Sarah Pickford of Travel Counsellors, such as a winter sports holiday. Also ensure all individuals can travel independently on that cover, she adds. And remember: “Cheap isn’t necessarily best.”
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
