The eurozone economy is set for a sharp recovery in the second half of 2021, as economic sentiment surged in April after the region’s vaccination programme finally gained momentum.
The European Commission's monthly sentiment survey for the 19 countries sharing the euro was more optimistic on Thursday, rising to 110.3 points in April from 100.9 in March.
The upbeat mood came as European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy was set for rapid growth in the second half of the year thanks to faster distribution of vaccines, which will allow life to return to normal.
UBS Global Wealth Management said vaccination progress suggests the eurozone will not be far behind the US and UK when it comes to easing restrictions.
“We continue to expect the eurozone economy to experience a sharp recovery in the second half of this year,” UBS said.
“An additional boost for eurozone activity is likely to come from its exposure to the global economic rebound.”
This sentiment was backed up by Ms Lagarde, who told an online event of the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday that she was optimistic for the economy.
"By all accounts it seems that by the end of June, about 70 per cent of the population should be vaccinated at least with the first jab," Ms Lagarde said.
Eurozone output contracted 6.6 per cent in 2020 after the region was hammered by the pandemic. The economic bloc's recovery was hampered by a third wave of the coronavirus and a haphazard start to its vaccination campaign.
But Ms Lagarde said vaccines provide the "light at the end of the tunnel", so there was no reason to alter the ECB's projections for 4 per cent growth over the full year.
Europe’s ambitious Nest Generation EU plan is now ramping up with a number of member states submitting their national recovery plan to the European Commission this week, to receive the first disbursements from the EU’s €750bn ($908.06bn) Recovery and Resilience Plan.
Italy's economy and health system was severely affected by the pandemic, with the country set to receive one of the largest shares of the fund unveiled last year to support member states in recovering from the crisis.
This week, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi said the destiny of the country depended on the success on the €248bn package of investments and reforms to repair his country's economy, of which €191.5bn is coming from EU funds.
Morgan Stanley said on Thursday that Italy's Recovery Plan can set its economy on a sustained higher growth track, although the near-term effects are more uncertain.
“The package has the potential to significantly raise Italian GDP growth in the medium term for at least two reasons. First, the plan is aimed at financing new investment projects with a high long-term return, namely infrastructure investments with a green or a digital tag," Morgan Stanley said.
“Second, the potential of the plan is further reinforced by the significant slack in the Italian economy. We think that increase in public investment has the ability to crowd-in private investment and consumption, especially if the government succeeds in passing the supply side structural reforms included in the plan, which aim at cutting red tape and making the country more business-friendly.”
France and Germany jointly presented their national recovery plan with grants of about €25bn and €40bn respectively, which will largely focus on greener economy and progress in digitalisation.
“With Germany dedicating 90 per cent and France 75 per cent to these two matters, both countries exceed the requirement outlined by the European Commission,” UBS said.
“In the short term, we expect the market reaction to these plans to be largely favourable. The absence of a delay to the monies being deployed should lend greater credibility to Europe's expected economic recovery.”
However, the eurozone economy still has some work to do. Less than a quarter of the bloc’s population have received their first dose of a vaccine and much of Europe remains in lockdown.
Services, which incorporate the sectors most affected by lockdowns, have felt the brunt of the impact, while goods production has fared much better, helped in part by strong demand from overseas.
“Nevertheless, many parts of the manufacturing sector in the eurozone continue to operate below full capacity. Disruptions to supply chains, bottlenecks caused by shipping delays, and the ongoing impact of social distancing have all contributed,” UBS said.
With vaccine supply bottlenecks expected to ease in the coming months, the mood has become much more positive.
The European Commission's monthly sentiment survey found that industrial confidence rose to 10.7 points in April from 2.1 in March.
In services, the eurozone's biggest sector responsible for more than two thirds of GDP, the mood was also more upbeat with the reading rising to 2.1 points from minus 9.6 in March.
Consumer optimism increased to minus 8.1 from minus 10.8, while the manufacturing industry's selling price expectations rose to 24.1 points in April from 17.5 in March, nearing its highest reading since March 2011.
The rise in economic confidence added to signs that the region is starting to recover, with the German government this week raising its growth forecast for the year to 3.5 per cent and expressing confidence that consumer spending will take off once the pandemic is under control.
The positive mood will boost the euro’s prospects against a weaker US dollar this year. The euro was trading at $1.2119 against the dollar at 2.06pm London time on Thursday, with USB expecting the pairing to reach $1.25 by the end of the year.
“As the global economy heals, investors are likely to diversify their current exposure away from the US dollar," the bank said.
"The corresponding increase in demand for eurozone exports will create further demand for euros, which will be another factor pushing the currency higher."
More on the eurozone economy
ECB's Christine Lagarde: 'Our hope is that 2021 is still the year of recovery'
Eurozone unemployment unchanged at 8.3% in February
Eurozone GDP contracted 0.7% in fourth quarter of 2020
Company%20profile
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Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
Blonde
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAndrew%20Dominik%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAna%20de%20Armas%2C%20Adrien%20Brody%2C%20Bobby%20Cannavale%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Switch%20Foods%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Edward%20Hamod%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Plant-based%20meat%20production%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2034%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%246.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Based%20in%20US%20and%20across%20Middle%20East%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Fight card
1. Featherweight 66kg: Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg: Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg:Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg: Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg: Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg: Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg: Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Ahmed Abdelraouf of Egypt (EGY)
9. Featherweight 66kg: Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Read more about the coronavirus
The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PRO%20MAX
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Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
MATCH INFO
FA Cup fifth round
Chelsea v Manchester United, Monday, 11.30pm (UAE), BeIN Sports
The%20National%20selections
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Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Results
Stage Two:
1. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 04:20:45
2. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates
4. Olav Kooij (NED) Jumbo-Visma
5. Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
General Classification:
1. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix 09:03:03
2. Dmitry Strakhov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:04
3. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 00:00:06
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Bora-Hansgrohe 00:00:10
5. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates 00:00:12
The Bio
Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959
Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.
He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses
Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas
His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s
Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business
He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery
Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 435hp at 5,900rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,800-5,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Price: from Dh498,542
On sale: now
Second Test
In Dubai
Pakistan 418-5 (declared)
New Zealand 90 and 131-2 (follow on)
Day 3: New Zealand trail by 197 runs with 8 wickets remaining
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Fines for littering
In Dubai:
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
MANDOOB
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
