The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) slashed growth forecasts on Thursday for Turkey, its biggest lending market, but left the rest of its region largely unscathed despite growing pressures.
The development bank still expects all 38 of the economies where it works to grow this year and next, but cutting Turkey's forecast a combined 4 percentage points, along with a possible recession there, will lower the region's overall growth rate by 0.6 per cent points to 2.6 per cent next year.
The cut comes after turmoil in Turkey, where the lira has lost about a third of its value and forced the country's central bank to nearly double domestic interest rates to fend off a full-blown currency crisis.
"We have downgraded our Turkey forecasts to 1 per cent [for 2019] and that of course has a major impact on our overall forecast for the whole region," said Sergei Guriev, EBRD's chief economist.
Turkey has seen tentative signs of stabilisation in recent weeks, Mr Guriev said, the year ahead was still going to be "very difficult". Growth is set to nosedive and the hike in interest rates will make it far more expensive for companies to refinance any loans that are coming due.
Elsewhere, the picture was more stable. Excluding Turkey, growth for the EBRD's region of operation, which stretches from Morocco to Mongolia, is forecast to stay around 3 per cent. Direct spillovers from Turkey's troubles are expected to be limited.
Economies including Poland, Hungary, Armenia, Mongolia and Turkmenistan all received forecast upgrades for 2018 and 2019. Russia is expected to grow 1.5 per cent in both years. Romania, Jordan and the Kyrgyz Republic all saw small or medium-sized reductions for both years. The EBRD also echoed the International Monetary Fund's recent warning of a growing set of pressures. "Escalation of trade conflicts is a major risk to the outlook," it said.
"Other risks include disruption to cross-border supply chains in the case of a no-deal Brexit, high levels of corporate indebtedness and geopolitical instability." An escalation in the trade war between the United States and China that slowed the global economy could cut "several decimal points" of growth from the EBRD's region, Mr Guriev said.
If big European economies like Germany get dragged into the feud, it would be significantly worse. "The good news for our countries is that they are part of European value chains ... and there is no foreseeable risk of a trade war within Europe or against Europe," he said.
_______________
Read more:
Turkey's inflation rate soars to 24.5% in September as lira slides
Turkey's massive new Istanbul airport faces a rough take-off
_______________
"But if for some reason Europe's trading partners introduce tariffs against Europe, or even west Europe, our countries will be very badly hit."
A no-deal Brexit, where Britain exits the European Union without a replacement trade deal, would hit south-eastern European countries hardest, the report said. Unless other member states increased their contributions to the EU, Brexit would lead to a 10 to 15 per cent decline in structural and accession funds available to countries in central and southeastern Europe. That would amount to a reduction of up to 0.4 percentage points of GDP in EU-supported investment.
Slovakian and Hungarian exports to the UK add an estimated 1.5 to 3 per cent to their gross domestic product, mainly in the automotive and machinery sectors.
Poland and Lithuania also have sizwable exports of food products, worth 1 to 2 per cent of their GDP.
"An additional impact may arise due to disruption in value chains that link the EBRD regions’ economies with advanced economies in Europe, which are in turn linked to the UK," the report said.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The Energy Research Centre
Founded 50 years ago as a nuclear research institute, scientists at the centre believed nuclear would be the “solution for everything”.
Although they still do, they discovered in 1955 that the Netherlands had a lot of natural gas. “We still had the idea that, by 2000, it would all be nuclear,” said Harm Jeeninga, director of business and programme development at the centre.
"In the 1990s, we found out about global warming so we focused on energy savings and tackling the greenhouse gas effect.”
The energy centre’s research focuses on biomass, energy efficiency, the environment, wind and solar, as well as energy engineering and socio-economic research.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RESULTS
Catchweight 63.5kg: Shakriyor Juraev (UZB) beat Bahez Khoshnaw (IRQ). Round 3 TKO (body kick)
Lightweight: Nart Abida (JOR) beat Moussa Salih (MAR). Round 1 by rear naked choke
Catchweight 79kg: Laid Zerhouni (ALG) beat Ahmed Saeb (IRQ). Round 1 TKO (punches)
Catchweight 58kg: Omar Al Hussaini (UAE) beat Mohamed Sahabdeen (SLA) Round 1 rear naked choke
Flyweight: Lina Fayyad (JOR) beat Sophia Haddouche (ALG) Round 2 TKO (ground and pound)
Catchweight 80kg: Badreddine Diani (MAR) beat Sofiane Aïssaoui (ALG) Round 2 TKO
Flyweight: Sabriye Sengul (TUR) beat Mona Ftouhi (TUN). Unanimous decision
Middleweight: Kher Khalifa Eshoushan (LIB) beat Essa Basem (JOR). Round 1 rear naked choke
Heavyweight: Mohamed Jumaa (SUD) beat Hassen Rahat (MAR). Round 1 TKO (ground and pound)
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammad Ali Musalim (UAE beat Omar Emad (EGY). Round 1 triangle choke
Catchweight 62kg: Ali Taleb (IRQ) beat Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR). Round 2 KO
Catchweight 88kg: Mohamad Osseili (LEB) beat Samir Zaidi (COM). Unanimous decision
Pakistanis%20at%20the%20ILT20%20
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBhuvan%20Bam%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fbhuvan.bam22%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%2016.1%20million%3Cbr%3EBhuvan%20Bam%20is%20a%2029-year-old%20comedian%20and%20actor%20from%20Delhi%2C%20who%20started%20out%20with%20YouTube%20channel%2C%20%E2%80%9CBB%20Ki%20Vines%E2%80%9D%20in%202015%2C%20which%20propelled%20the%20social%20media%20star%20into%20the%20limelight%20and%20made%20him%20sought-after%20among%20brands.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKusha%20Kapila%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkushakapila%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%203.1%20million%3Cbr%3EKusha%20Kapila%20is%20a%20fashion%20editor%20and%20actress%2C%20who%20has%20collaborated%20with%20brands%20including%20Google.%20She%20focuses%20on%20sharing%20light-hearted%20content%20and%20insights%20into%20her%20life%20as%20a%20rising%20celebrity.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDiipa%20Khosla%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fdiipakhosla%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EDiipa%20Khosla%20started%20out%20as%20a%20social%20media%20manager%20before%20branching%20out%20to%20become%20one%20of%20India's%20biggest%20fashion%20influencers%2C%20with%20collaborations%20including%20MAC%20Cosmetics.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKomal%20Pandey%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkomalpandeyofficial%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EKomal%20Pandey%20is%20a%20fashion%20influencer%20who%20has%20partnered%20with%20more%20than%20100%20brands%2C%20including%20Olay%20and%20smartphone%20brand%20Vivo%20India.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENikhil%20Sharma%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fnikkkhil%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.4%20million%3Cbr%3ENikhil%20Sharma%20from%20Mumbai%20began%20his%20online%20career%20through%20vlogs%20about%20his%20motorcycle%20trips.%20He%20has%20become%20a%20lifestyle%20influencer%20and%20has%20created%20his%20own%20clothing%20line.%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Hireinfluence%2C%20various%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
The National photo project
Chris Whiteoak, a photographer at The National, spent months taking some of Jacqui Allan's props around the UAE, positioning them perfectly in front of some of the country's most recognisable landmarks. He placed a pirate on Kite Beach, in front of the Burj Al Arab, the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland at the Burj Khalifa, and brought one of Allan's snails (Freddie, which represents her grandfather) to the Dubai Frame. In Abu Dhabi, a dinosaur went to Al Ain's Jebel Hafeet. And a flamingo was taken all the way to the Hatta Mountains. This special project suitably brings to life the quirky nature of Allan's prop shop (and Allan herself!).
Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Match info:
Wolves 1
Boly (57')
Manchester City 1
Laporte (69')
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
WITHIN%20SAND
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Moe%20Alatawi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Ra%E2%80%99ed%20Alshammari%2C%20Adwa%20Fahd%2C%20Muhand%20Alsaleh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20EA%20Vancouver%2C%20EA%20Romania%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20EA%20Sports%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio:
Favourite holiday destination: I really enjoyed Sri Lanka and Vietnam but my dream destination is the Maldives.
Favourite food: My mum’s Chinese cooking.
Favourite film: Robocop, followed by The Terminator.
Hobbies: Off-roading, scuba diving, playing squash and going to the gym.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
RACECARD
6pm Emaar Dubai Sprint – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
6.35pm Graduate Stakes – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm Al Khail Trophy – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,810m
7.45pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
8.20pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,000m
8.55pm Downtown Dubai Cup – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 1,400m
9.30pm Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
10.05pm Dubai Sprint – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
Rashid & Rajab
Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib
Stars: Shadi Alfons, Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab
Two stars out of five
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Floward%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulaziz%20Al%20Loughani%20and%20Mohamed%20Al%20Arifi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EE-commerce%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbout%20%24200%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAljazira%20Capital%2C%20Rainwater%20Partners%2C%20STV%20and%20Impact46%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C200%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
