European governments that frantically assembled plans to help their economies weather the coronavirus lockdowns are starting to focus on a cliff edge: how to prevent cascading bankruptcies that could derail the rebound.
The next big idea gaining traction among officials and economists is potentially taking stakes in small and medium-sized businesses, in contrast to early efforts that relied heavily on loans to keep corporations afloat.
The European Commission and the Bank of England have both floated the concept, and France’s finance ministry is examining the option. So is Germany’s economy ministry, according to a spokesman. The nation’s DIHK business association, which says almost half of its members have seen their capital depleted, is supportive.
Equity support in itself isn’t new — banks were bailed out during the global financial crisis and Germany still holds a more than 15 per cent stake in Commerzbank.
But efforts that focused on large companies triggered a backlash against authorities for ignoring struggling smaller businesses that employ the vast majority of workers.
Now, the disruptions from the pandemic mean many of those businesses face a cashflow squeeze that could see them fail even as they resume operations.
Such intervention would thrust the state into an even-deeper role in managing the economy, and would inevitably lead to accusations of picking winners and losers. The economists backing such proposals, however, say relying on yet more loans could weigh so heavily on businesses that it sucks the life out of the economy.
“There’s a risk that companies will have to ramp up debt to such an extent during the crisis that aggressive investments afterward become unlikely,” said Jan Krahnen, director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE in Frankfurt, and one of the authors of a proposed European Union-wide equity proposal. “This would be counteracted directly with another form of financing.”
The EU Commission identified corporate solvency as a key risk this week, warning that a rise in bankruptcies “could amplify and lengthen the pandemic shock while raising non-performing loans.”
It estimates as much as €720 billion ($811bn/Dh3bn) will be needed this year alone to ensure the survival of otherwise-viable firms in the EU. Officials have proposed a “solvency support instrument” — as part of the bloc’s recovery fund that leaders will debate this month — which would leverage a small public budget to mobilize €300bn in private equity investment.
“We’re entering a phase where corporate solvency may be shaken as national governments could start reducing the policy support put in place in the first phase of the crisis,” OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone told a European Parliament hearing in June. “Where state aid has taken the form of equity injections, corporates will be more resilient.”
The proposal by Krahnen and five economists from other universities argues for a “European Pandemic Equity Fund” that would make an initial cash investment in return for a share in future earnings. It would be open to companies of all sizes, and firms could ultimately buy themselves out of the scheme at a pre-set price.
Similar to the EU proposal, it would leverage a smaller public budget by selling bonds or take investments from institutional investors such as pension funds and insurers.
In the UK, the BOE sees the cash-flow deficit at companies reaching £50bn ($63bn/Dh232bn), and Governor Andrew Bailey has pledged to work with the government on ways to boost equity finance to plug that gap.
Such plans would throw up some dilemmas. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says the crisis will probably accelerate preexisting trends toward less globalization, more digitisation and greener industries. Governments may feel not all parts of the economy should be restored to their pre-virus standing.
Researchers at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels wrote in an opinion piece that any publicly-backed equity fund should set a “clear political direction” with post-virus goals such as climate neutrality and social cohesion.
“I imagine this is very hard to do in practice,” Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch, head of economic research at debt collector Creditreform, said. “How do you want to select companies that only got in trouble because of the crisis, and ideally be all about green technologies? The devil is in the details.”
Others say publicly-backed loans that were handed out in recent months could be the starting point for equity support. Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon and Jean Pisani-Ferry wrote a paper for the Peterson Institute said that firms could get the option to convert debt into “equity or quasi-equity in the form of preferred shares or, for privately held firms, higher profit taxes.”
If that were to happen in Germany, for example, where companies have applied for more than €50bn worth of loans from the state-back development bank KfW, thousands of firms could find that the state has joined their shareholder roster.
“These loans have not been used before during times of economic crisis — nobody knows what will happen now,” said Dirk Ehnts, a Berlin-based economist who co-founded Pufendorf Gesellschaft, an NGO focusing on political economy education. “The German government, without initially intending it, could become a very, very big business owner."
Match info
Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
UAE SQUAD
Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri
RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Sour%20Grapes
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZakaria%20Tamer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESyracuse%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E176%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Small Victories: The True Story of Faith No More by Adrian Harte
Jawbone Press
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Results
Men's finals
45kg:Duc Le Hoang (VIE) beat Zolfi Amirhossein (IRI) points 29-28. 48kg: Naruephon Chittra (THA) beat Joseph Vanlalhruaia (IND) TKO round 2.
51kg: Sakchai Chamchit (THA) beat Salam Al Suwaid (IRQ) TKO round 1. 54kg: Veerasak Senanue (THA) beat Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) 30-25.
57kg: Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) RSC round 3. 60kg: Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 30-27.
63.5kg: Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE) 29-28. 67kg: Narin Wonglakhon (THA) beat Mohammed Mardi (UAE) 29-28.
71kg: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) w/o Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ). 75kg: Youssef Abboud (LBN) w/o Ayoob Saki (IRI).
81kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Khaled Tarraf (LBN) 29-28. 86kg: Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Emil Umayev (KAZ) 30-27.
91kg: Hamid Reza Kordabadi (IRI) beat Mohamad Osaily (LBN) RSC round 1. 91-plus kg: Mohammadrezapoor Shirmohammad (IRI) beat Abdulla Hasan (IRQ) 30-27.
Women's finals
45kg: Somruethai Siripathum (THA) beat Ha Huu Huynh (VIE) 30-27. 48kg: Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Colleen Saddi (PHI) 30-27.
51kg: Wansawang Srila Or (THA) beat Thuy Phuong Trieu (VIE) 29-28. 54kg: Ruchira Wongsriwo (THA) beat Zeinab Khatoun (LBN) 30-26.
57kg: Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Zahra Nasiri Bargh (IRI) 30-27. 60kg: Kaewrudee Kamtakrapoom (THA) beat Sedigheh Hajivand (IRI) TKO round 2.
63.5kg: Nadiya Moghaddam (IRI) w/o Reem Al Issa (JOR).
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UK%20-%20UAE%20Trade
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ovasave%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Majd%20Abu%20Zant%20and%20Torkia%20Mahloul%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Healthtech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Three%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
