Independence flags selling for €1 Barcelona. The crisis with Catalonia and ECB moves have pushed the currency down. Emilio Morenatti/AP
Independence flags selling for €1 Barcelona. The crisis with Catalonia and ECB moves have pushed the currency down. Emilio Morenatti/AP

Euro falls most this year on ECB bond decision and Spanish woes



The euro fell on Friday, marking its biggest weekly loss of the year a day after the European Central Bank decided to prolong its bond purchases and signaled its willingness to stick with an ultra-loose policy stance.

The tension between Madrid and Catalonia’s secessionists also stoked selling in the single currency after the Catalan parliament on Friday declared independence from Madrid following a secret ballot. The Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy retaliated by sacking the Catalan government and set elections on December 21.

“The dovish surprise from the ECB was its openness to extend the duration of its bond purchase programme,” said Omer Esiner, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

On Thursday, the ECB said it will extend its bond purchases into September 2018 while reducing its monthly purchases by half to €30 billion (Dh127.88bn) starting in January.

The move raised bets the ECB was unlikely to raise interest rates until 2019 as the US Federal Reserve has remained on its path to hike US rates further.

The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where policy-makers are expected to leave rates unchanged.

The euro was down 0.5 per cent at US$1.1595, bringing its weekly loss against the dollar to 1.6 per cent for the biggest in 11 months.

Against the yen, the common currency was 0.6 percent lower at ¥131.98 after touching its weakest level in nearly two weeks.

The Catalan parliament vote revived some safe-haven demand for the yen and Swiss franc.

Even in the aftermath of Friday’s political turmoil, “the situation in Spain seemed largely contained for now”, Mr Eisner said.

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As the euro wobbled this week, the dollar strengthened on upbeat economic data, hopes for a tax cut and speculation about the US president Donald Trump’s selection of someone who favours a faster pace of rate increases than current Fed chairman Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February.

The US government reported on Friday that the economy grew at a 3 per cent annual rate in the third quarter, faster than the 2.5 per cent forecast among economists polled by Reuters.

Earlier Friday, Bloomberg reported that Mr Trump leans toward nominating Fed governor Jerome Powell as the next Fed chief, but has not made up his mind.

The dollar pared gains briefly on that report as Mr Powell is seen less hawkish than the Stanford University economist John Taylor, another potential nominee to lead the central bank.

Mr Trump, who is expected to announce his Fed chief candidate this week, is also considering Ms Yellen, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and his economic adviser, Gary Cohn, for the Fed’s top job.

The index that tracks the dollar against six currencies was up 0.3 per cent at 94.919 after hitting a three-month high at 95.150. It gained 1.3 per cent for its biggest weekly increase so far this year.

NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

Tuesday's fixtures
Group A
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Iran v Uzbekistan, 8pm
N Korea v UAE, 10.15pm
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Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa

Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong

Rating: 3/5

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

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Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
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  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

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The Bio

Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity

Results

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2.45pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m

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3.15pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,000m

Winner: Leading Spirit, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.

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4.45pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh125,000 1,200m

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