Emerging market economies may find it more difficult to refinance debt as countries look to raise interest rates to tackle higher inflation, the Institute of International Finance said.
Central banks in most major emerging markets – except for Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine – are yet to increase interest rates even though rhetoric has turned more hawkish in recent months, the Washington-based institute said in a report authored by its deputy chief economist Elina Ribakova and economist Benjamin Hilgenstock.
“Yet a look at a broader EM and FM (Frontier Market) universe of 40 inflation-targeting central banks shows that the hiking cycle has clearly begun in the first quarter and second quarter of 2021,” it said.
Globally, central banks and governments have pumped $25 trillion into economies to cushion the impact of the pandemic and protect companies and industries. That flow of money has raised concerns in the US and Europe about rising inflation. Surging oil prices are also having an impact on the cost of manufacturing and transportation, the IIF said.
“Historically low inflation in EM and FM allowed for supportive monetary policies during the pandemic, which, via lower yields, helped finance larger deficits. While many economists think that higher debt accumulation is warranted in developed markets due to exceptionally low rates, we believe that the argument in the case of EM and FM is more nuanced.”
In Central and Eastern Europe, April inflation numbers point to rising price pressures across the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania which, if sustained, would likely force monetary policy makers’ hands sooner than the market was expecting, the IIF said.
In Russia and Ukraine, the IIF expects further hikes as inflation is set to remain above targets, while South Africa’s SARB is likely to keep its accommodative policy stance as inflation remains subdued.
“In Turkey, we project that a lagged effect of a weaker lira will keep inflation at elevated levels, leaving the CBRT little choice but to postpone easing to the fourth quarter.”
In Asean (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries, accommodative monetary policies will remain in place as inflationary pressures are moderate, except in the Philippines, it added.
Indonesia’s central bank eased monetary policy in February and has kept rates on hold since, while in India the RBI will likely continue its accommodative stance due to domestic Covid1-9 pressures.
India, Asia's third-largest economy, has been recording a large number of coronavirus cases in the last two months. However, infection rates have reduced in the last two weeks due to movement restrictions introduced in a number of states.
In Latin America, surging commodity prices have fuelled inflationary pressures despite negative output gaps, reducing the scope to maintain accommodative monetary policies, the IIF said in the report. In addition, relative price shifts due to pandemic-induced changes in consumer behaviour and base effects have made inflation dynamics more challenging.
“We expect the BCB (Brazil Central Bank) to tighten policy further in the coming months to contain above-target inflation and anchor expectations.”
In Mexico, higher-than-expected inflation due to supply shocks, agricultural and energy price pressures, and the reduction of slack in the economy have prompted Banxico to pause easing.
“Rising inflationary pressures have prompted a number of EM and FM central banks to tighten monetary policy conditions,” it said.
“While the cost of funding in the local currency remains relatively low in historical comparison, some countries are more prone to shocks. Among key EMs, we are especially concerned about Brazil and South Africa – due to large fiscal deficits – as well as Turkey.”
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Celta Vigo 2
Castro (45'), Aspas (82')
Barcelona 2
Dembele (36'), Alcacer (64')
Red card: Sergi Roberto (Barcelona)
ENGLAND WORLD CUP SQUAD
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wicketkeeper), Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
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Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
Facebook | Our website | Instagram
Law%2041.9.4%20of%20men%E2%80%99s%20T20I%20playing%20conditions
%3Cp%3EThe%20fielding%20side%20shall%20be%20ready%20to%20start%20each%20over%20within%2060%20seconds%20of%20the%20previous%20over%20being%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3EAn%20electronic%20clock%20will%20be%20displayed%20at%20the%20ground%20that%20counts%20down%20seconds%20from%2060%20to%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20clock%20is%20not%20required%20or%2C%20if%20already%20started%2C%20can%20be%20cancelled%20if%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09A%20new%20batter%20comes%20to%20the%20wicket%20between%20overs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09An%20official%20drinks%20interval%20has%20been%20called.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20umpires%20have%20approved%20the%20on%20field%20treatment%20of%20an%20injury%20to%20a%20batter%20or%20fielder.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20time%20lost%20is%20for%20any%20circumstances%20beyond%20the%20control%20of%20the%20fielding%20side.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20third%20umpire%20starts%20the%20clock%20either%20when%20the%20ball%20has%20become%20dead%20at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20previous%20over%2C%20or%20a%20review%20has%20been%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20team%20gets%20two%20warnings%20if%20they%20are%20not%20ready%20to%20start%20overs%20after%20the%20clock%20reaches%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09On%20the%20third%20and%20any%20subsequent%20occasion%20in%20an%20innings%2C%20the%20bowler%E2%80%99s%20end%20umpire%20awards%20five%20runs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Omar%20Hilal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhammad%20Farrag%2C%20Bayoumi%20Fouad%2C%20Nelly%20Karim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
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%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m, Winner: ES Rubban, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Al Mobher, Sczcepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Jabalini, Tadhg O’Shea, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: AF Abahe, Tadgh O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Makerah, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Law Of Peace, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
