The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the nationwide lockdown is raising concerns about the health of India's banking sector, which was wobbling under a mountain of bad debt even before the outbreak.
Analysts are now predicting a wave of loan defaults this year as companies go out of business because of pandemic-related shutdowns or struggle to service their debts amid reduced income.
“The economy is going through a very troubled time and I think we will see a lot more stress going forward,” says Jimeet Modi, founder and chief executive of Mumbai-based Samco Securities. “A lot of the stress will be contributed by small and medium-sized businesses and the banking and financial services sector. We expect a lot of SMEs will end up defaulting on their loan and interest repayments, which will create a vicious cycle and further difficulties for banks and non-banking financial companies.”
India's banking sector has been struggling with ever-increasing levels of bad loans, triggered by a series of defaults by corporations, individual clients, and other smaller businesses over the past few years.
Authorities had taken steps to strengthen the ailing banking sector and tighten lending practices in Asia's third-largest economy. These included mergers of state-run banks and placing several lenders on the watch list of the country's central bank – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The aim was to help struggling institutions improve their balance sheets. However, despite corrective measures, India, with its $190 billion (Dh697.3bn) of bad loans, overtook Italy to become the major global economy with the worst non-performing loan ratio, according to Bloomberg, which cited data from the RBI.
Now, with the coronavirus pandemic hitting the global and local economy and a nationwide lockdown, which has been in place since March 25, it is inevitable that there will be more pain in store for the country's financial institutions, analysts and business leaders say.
“The banking sector already grappled with many issues including rising NPAs [non performing assets], a liquidity crunch and under-capitalisation,” says DK Aggarwal, the president of India's PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “The onset of Covid-19 has further aggravated the issues and concerns for them as they may witness a hike in credit costs and limited disbursement of loans to various segments of economy.”
Some analysts say the slow progress made over the years to clean up India's banks could be derailed with the latest crisis.
“The pandemic has brought most businesses to a halt,” says George Alexander Muthoot, the managing director of Muthoot Finance, a Kerala-based gold financing company.
“Most people were forced to stay at home and demand for goods and services has dwindled. The banking sector has faced a certain amount of problems due to the credit crunch even before the pandemic [hit]. All businesses are [now] in the process of rewriting their business strategies.”
Prime Minister Narendra Mod's government last month unveiled a $266bn economic package, but economists say the stimulus is more focused on long-term measures, rather than putting cash directly into the hands of businesses. The government package also includes provision of credit for businesses, but that relies heavily on lending by state-run banks, and the government has yet to put money into those lenders.
Analysts agree that right now it is extremely difficult to estimate the impact on the banking sector given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. India reported 11,000 new Covid-19 cases in a single day on Saturday, brining the total in the country to more than 300,000. More than 8,800 deaths from the virus have also been reported according to the Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking its spread.
“I think no one knows the answer,” says Yuvraj Choudhary, a research analyst at Anand Rathi Securities in Mumbai. “Bankers, top management, even the customers themselves, they don't know what will be the end impact of this whole lockdown situation.”
In the case of some banks, 30 to 40 per cent of their customers have applied for moratoriums on their loans.
“These businesses may have applied for the moratorium out of financial distress or it may just be a precaution,” says Mr Choudhary. “There is a set of customers who have applied for moratoriums because their business is not doing well and that is a problem.”
In recent weeks, India has relaxed some restrictions that were part of its nationwide lockdown in a effort to revive the economy.
But many businesses have yet to reopen, and some that are open are struggling to get the labour they need after the vast majority of migrant workers fled cities to return to their home towns. Subdued consumer demand for all-but essential goods amid the pandemic is another factor hurting businesses.
Goldman Sachs expects India's GDP to contract by 5 per cent in the current financial year due to the pandemic. The economy could shrink by as much as 45 per cent in the April to June quarter, according to the investment bank.
With such a gloomy economic outlook, lenders are reluctant to start handing out loans to many sectors, which means that businesses will struggle to access much-needed credit, experts say.
“The Covid-19 and resultant lockdown has impacted the resilience of the banking sector in form of a liquidity crunch,” says Mr Aggarwal. “Going ahead, prolonged financial sector weakness could weigh on credit growth, economic output and investment and productivity in the coming times. The health of banking sector is going to be worrisome if their lending activities are not boosted.”
"We expect a lot of SMEs will end up defaulting on their loan and interest repayments, which will create a vicious cycle and further difficulties for banks and non-banking financial companies," says Jimeet Modi, founder and chief executive of Mumbai-based Samco Securities.
Mr Choudhary says that lenders are trying to be as prudent as possible. For example, pharmaceutical and fast-moving consumer goods sector companies are more likely to be able to secure loans than businesses in the travel and hospitality industries, which are the hardest hit by the pandemic.
The non-banking financial sector crisis that erupted in 2018 is another issue weighing heavy on banks. The extent of their troubles came to the fore with the collapse in March of India's fourth-largest private sector lender, Yes Bank, in March. The State Bank of India led a 100bn rupee (Dh4.87bn) bailout package to rescue the lender, which buckled under a heap of bad debts, when non-financial banking and real estate companies defaulted.
Analysts say in the current scenario more support will be needed from the authorities for the banking and broader financial services sector as India tries to revive its economy.
“Recapitalisation of banks will be required" to restore the balance sheets of under-pressure lenders, particularly publicly-owned banks, says Mr Aggarwal.
The RBI has already delivered two emergency interest rate cuts since the lockdown began and also announced measures to address liquidity constraints. But the help extended so far is not enough.
“I do believe the government will have to be ready to support public sector banks with capital,” said Uday Kotak, the founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bloomberg reported. “My advice to both private-sector banks and non-bank financial companies is: make yourself stronger, fortress your balance sheets. And if that means raising capital, go ahead and do it.”
Kotak Mahindra Bank has raised almost $1bn over the past few weeks through the sale of shares to boost its own balance sheet.
Work is also continuing to manage the long-term health of the sector.
On Thursday, the RBI proposed stricter governance rules for commercial banks. These proposals include limiting how long a major shareholder can serve as chief executive to 10 years, and drawing up clear divisions of responsibilities between a bank's board and management.
The RBI is also setting up an internal working group to review its guidelines on the ownership and governance structure of private sector banks.
In the near term, analysts say it is in the government and RBI's interest to do whatever it takes to support the banking sector through the pandemic.
“The financial sector is the heart of the economy,” says Mr Choudhary. “I don't think any of the banks in India will be allowed to fail.”
The%20specs
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ogram%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Kouatly%20and%20Shafiq%20Khartabil%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20On-demand%20staffing%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2050%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMore%20than%20%244%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%2C%20Aditum%20and%20Oraseya%20Capital%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
The biog
Age: 30
Position: Senior lab superintendent at Emirates Global Aluminium
Education: Bachelor of science in chemical engineering, post graduate degree in light metal reduction technology
Favourite part of job: The challenge, because it is challenging
Favourite quote: “Be the change you wish to see in the world,” Gandi
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.
The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?
My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.
The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.
So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
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