A near decade-long war in Syria has led to increased poverty, higher debt burdens, deteriorating labour markets and worsening access to public services in neighbouring Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, according to the World Bank.
The Syria conflict reduced economic output by 1.2 percentage points in Iraq, 1.6 percentage points in Jordan, and 1.7 percentage points in Lebanon, from 2011 onwards, the Washington-based lender said in "The fallout of war: The regional consequences of the conflict in Syria" report released on Thursday.
The cumulative reductions correspond to 11.3 per cent of the combined pre-conflict gross domestic product across the three countries.
The conflict in Syria "has imposed a heavy economic and social toll on the country's neighbours in the Mashreq [countries in the east of the Arab world]," the bank said in the 228-page report. "The overall impact of the Syrian conflict on Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon has been disproportionately high compared to similar situations elsewhere in the world in the last few decades."
Syria is grappling with its own deepening economic crisis as the US imposes its toughest sanctions yet on the war-torn country this month. The Syrian pound which used to trade at 47 to the dollar before the conflict started in 2011, sank to a record low of 3000 against the greenback this month, ahead of a new wave of US sanctions on the country.
Syria is in the midst of a grim economic plight worsened by a decade of war and western sanctions, resulting in an exodus of millions of refugees to neighbouring countries and Europe.
The conflict in Syria has "far-reaching" consequences for its three neighbours, pushing up poverty rates by 4 percentage points in Jordan, 7.1 percentage points in Lebanon and 6 per centage points in Iraq, the report found.
Labour market conditions for locals in these three countries, particularly women, have deteriorated after 2011 due to the overall economic slowdown and arrival of refugees.
"Unambiguously, the tragic forced displacement since 2011 has been the most dramatic consequence of the Syrian conflict for others in Mashreq," the World Bank said.
For example, in Iraq, Syrian refugees have higher labour force participation than their Iraqi peers, but they have also been more likely to be unemployed.
In Jordan, Syrian refugees, especially females, are less economically active than their Jordanian peers.
In Lebanon, the labour force participation of Lebanese and of Syrian refugees were similar, while the the unemployment rates of Syrian men and women were about 20 percentage points higher than those of their Lebanese peers.
The influx of Syrian refugees also resulted in a sudden 20 per cent increase in demand for public services – such as transportation, education, health care, water and sanitation, and utilities – creating "monumental challenges" for governments of these countries.
The channels through which this economic fallout was transmitted from Syria to its neighbours include decreased transit trade through Syria, stalled export of services such as tourism, and the "demographic" shock of refugee arrivals. This influx of people boosted GDP by 0.9 percentage points in Lebanon and Jordan by increasing demand and labour supply.
Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon have been particularly affected by the Syrian war because of three major factors, according to the World Bank. First, the sheer scale and duration of the conflict, which made it an outlier among all global civil conflict cases, with the scale of the economic collapse in Syria being much larger than average.
Second, the high exposure of Mashreq economies to the Syrian crisis – including dependence for transit trade, sensitivity of major economic sectors such as tourism to regional instability, and a large demographic shock – increased the scale of impact.
Third, the low "institutional resilience" of Mashreq economies, meaning low state capacity and policy space, magnified the impact of the conflict.
Looking forward, the World Bank provided three scenarios on how a future recovery in Syria could impact neighbouring economies.
In all three scenarios, economic recovery in Syria remains "modest" with limited effects on neighbouring countries, not exceeding a percentage point, even in the best-case situation.
"Any positive fallout from Syrian recovery will be through regional stability rather than immediate economic opportunities," the lender said. "The muted economic recovery in Syria will translate into a slow reversal of the adverse effects on Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon."
In the baseline scenario, where Syrian GDP growth increases by 0.8 percentage points annually in the next five-year period, the additional GDP growth in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon is estimated to be limited to 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
In the other two scenarios, where security improvements and service restoration are both more significant, the growth increments are 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points in the second scenario. They range at 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points in the third scenario.
For the top five materials required for the reconstruction of Syria – concrete structure, rebar steel, wood, concrete block and waterproofing – the three neighbouring countries are net importers of them.
"In the medium term, a strong economic recovery in Syria and an associated positive fallout are unlikely," the lender said.
The World Bank recommends policies that take a regional approach between the three countries to improve the current situation.
The lender highlighted potential gains from service market integration and infrastructure co-operation between the countries in energy, transport and communications technology. It also called for easing protectionist barriers between them.
"A balance between intra-regional competition and co-operation is essential for a dynamic regional economy," it said.
The lender said it is optimistic about regional solutions backed by international support.
"Can a regional perspective that is owned locally but supported internationally help stabilise the region? Our answer is affirmative, albeit cautiously so," it said. "If and when a consensus is established, the international community has the means to facilitate such a vision. Will there ever be such a consensus? We are optimistic because the alternative is in no one’s interest."
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21', 51'
Ferran Torres 67'
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3' (P), 43' (P), 71', 82'
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Command%20Z
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Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THREE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENTS
Khalfan Mubarak
The Al Jazira playmaker has for some time been tipped for stardom within UAE football, with Quique Sanchez Flores, his former manager at Al Ahli, once labelling him a “genius”. He was only 17. Now 23, Mubarak has developed into a crafty supplier of chances, evidenced by his seven assists in six league matches this season. Still to display his class at international level, though.
Rayan Yaslam
The Al Ain attacking midfielder has become a regular starter for his club in the past 15 months. Yaslam, 23, is a tidy and intelligent player, technically proficient with an eye for opening up defences. Developed while alongside Abdulrahman in the Al Ain first-team and has progressed well since manager Zoran Mamic’s arrival. However, made his UAE debut only last December.
Ismail Matar
The Al Wahda forward is revered by teammates and a key contributor to the squad. At 35, his best days are behind him, but Matar is incredibly experienced and an example to his colleagues. His ability to cope with tournament football is a concern, though, despite Matar beginning the season well. Not a like-for-like replacement, although the system could be adjusted to suit.
Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
POWERWASH%20SIMULATOR
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Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
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UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The years Ramadan fell in May
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch (captain), Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, David Warner, Adam Zampa
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
About Seez
Company name/date started: Seez, set up in September 2015 and the app was released in August 2017
Founder/CEO name(s): Tarek Kabrit, co-founder and chief executive, and Andrew Kabrit, co-founder and chief operating officer
Based in: Dubai, with operations also in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon
Sector: Search engine for car buying, selling and leasing
Size: (employees/revenue): 11; undisclosed
Stage of funding: $1.8 million in seed funding; followed by another $1.5m bridge round - in the process of closing Series A
Investors: Wamda Capital, B&Y and Phoenician Funds
Rebel%20Moon%20%E2%80%93%20Part%20Two%3A%20The%20Scargiver%20review%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zack%20Snyder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sofia%20Boutella%2C%20Charlie%20Hunnam%2C%20Ed%20Skrein%2C%20Sir%20Anthony%20Hopkins%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
The National selections
6.30pm: Chaddad
7.05pm: Down On Da Bayou
7.40pm: Mass Media
8.15pm: Rafal
8.50pm: Yulong Warrior
9.25pm: Chiefdom
Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The line up
Friday: Giggs, Sho Madjozi and Masego
Saturday: Nas, Lion Bbae, Roxanne Shante and DaniLeigh
Sole DXB runs from December 6 to 8 at Dubai Design District. Weekend pass is Dh295 while a one day pass is Dh195. Tickets are available from www.soledxb.com
