A second wave of Covid-19 infections may deepen the decline in global trade and supply chains, reduce investment appetite, and limit financing of current account deficits for emerging market and developing economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
The global current account balance declined 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 per cent of the world's gross domestic product in 2019 and is expected to narrow further by some 0.3 per cent of world GDP in 2020, due to coronavirus-related large fiscal expansions, the IMF said in its annual External Sector Report on Tuesday.
However, the outlook remains highly uncertain with substantial variations across countries as the world grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Two thirds of governments globally have topped up their fiscal support to offset the effects of the pandemic, pumping about $11 trillion (Dh40tn) into their economies, compared with $8tn in April.
For economies dependent on severely affected sectors — such as oil and tourism, or those reliant on remittances — the impact of the crisis is "acute", with negative effects on external current account balances expected to exceed 2 per cent of GDP.
"A second wave of the crisis, with a renewed tightening in global financial conditions, could narrow the scope for emerging market and developing economies to run current account deficits, further reduce the current account balances of commodity exporters, and deepen the decline in global trade," the Washington-based lender said.
Another bout of global financial stress could trigger more capital flow reversals, currency pressures, and further raise the risk of an external crisis for economies with pre-existing vulnerabilities, such as large current account deficits, a high share of foreign currency debt, and limited international reserves.
Global current account balances in 2020 could be impacted by contracting economic activity, tightening in global financial conditions, lower commodity prices, the drop in tourism, and the decline in remittances.
The direct impact on current account balances for some tourism-reliant economies could exceed 2 per cent of GDP.
"The projected direct impact on tourism trade balances in 2020 will depend critically on the pace of tourism recovery, which is highly uncertain," the report said.
Remittances are particularly vulnerable to the Covid-19 crisis because migrant because migrant workers are more exposed to risk of unemployment and wage loss during recessions, it said. They also tend to work in sectors such as food and hospitality, retail and wholesale, and tourism and transportation, which have taken a hit from the crisis.
"The decline in remittance inflows in per cent of GDP is expected to be concentrated among a number of emerging market and developing economies," the IMF said.
Remittance flows are forecast to fall an average of 20 per cent in 2020, according to the World Bank.
This decline implies "significant hardship" for households and small businesses in economies where remittance inflows represent more than 5 per cent of GDP, such as Egypt, Guatemala, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, according the report.
Depending on the pace of economic recovery and risks of a second wave of infections, effects on current account balances may continue, with remittances expected to rebound only partially by 5 per cent in 2021.
In the world's top five biggest economies, the expected changes in current account balances in 2020 compared with 2019 are modest—below 0.5 per cent of GDP, the IMF said.
In the US, the current account deficit is projected to narrow by 0.3 percentage points to about 2 per cent of GDP. In China, the current account surplus is expected to increase by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3 per cent of GDP.
In the near-term, policy makers should continue to focus on providing emergency lifelines, ensuring adequate liquidity, and promoting economic recovery while also building strong social safety nets, the IMF's executive board of directors said.
Countries with flexible exchange rates should allow them to adjust in response to external shocks, with the extent of adjustment depending on each economy, they said. Exchange rate intervention, where needed and where reserves are adequate, could help "alleviate disorderly market conditions."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
Brief scores:
Pakistan (1st innings) 181: Babar 71; Olivier 6-37
South Africa (1st innings) 223: Bavuma 53; Amir 4-62
Pakistan (2nd innings) 190: Masood 65, Imam 57; Olivier 5-59
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
ATP China Open
G Dimitrov (BUL x3) bt R Bautista Agut (ESP x5)
7-6, 4-6, 6-2
R Nadal (ESP x1) bt J Isner (USA x6)
6-4, 7-6
WTA China Open
S Halep (ROU x2) bt D Kasatkina (RUS)
6-2, 6-1
J Ostapenko (LAT x9) bt S Cirstea (ROU)
6-4, 6-4
ATP Japan Open
D Schwartzman (ARG x8) bt S Johnson (USA)
6-0, 7-5
D Goffin (BEL x4) bt R Gasquet (FRA)
7-5, 6-2
M Cilic (CRO x1) bt R Harrison (USA)
6-2, 6-0
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
%3Cp%3EBy%202030%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%20aims%20to%20achieve%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2039.3%20million%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20nearly%2064%25%20up%20from%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20Dh90%20billion%20contribution%20to%20GDP%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2084%25%20more%20than%20Dh49%20billion%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20178%2C000%20new%20jobs%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20bringing%20the%20total%20to%20about%20366%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2052%2C000%20hotel%20rooms%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20up%2053%25%20from%2034%2C000%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%207.2%20million%20international%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20almost%2090%25%20higher%20compared%20to%202023's%203.8%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%203.9%20international%20overnight%20hotel%20stays%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2022%25%20more%20from%203.2%20nights%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Teams
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
MATCH INFO
South Africa 66 (Tries: De Allende, Nkosi, Reinach (3), Gelant, Steyn, Brits, Willemse; Cons: Jantjies 8)
Canada 7 (Tries: Heaton; Cons: Nelson)
Soldier F
“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.
“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.
“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”
Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Day 3, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Just three balls remained in an exhausting day for Sri Lanka’s bowlers when they were afforded some belated cheer. Nuwan Pradeep, unrewarded in 15 overs to that point, let slip a seemingly innocuous delivery down the legside. Babar Azam feathered it behind, and Niroshan Dickwella dived to make a fine catch.
Stat of the day - 2.56 Shan Masood and Sami Aslam are the 16th opening partnership Pakistan have had in Tests in the past five years. That turnover at the top of the order – a new pair every 2.56 Test matches on average – is by far the fastest rate among the leading Test sides. Masood and Aslam put on 114 in their first alliance in Abu Dhabi.
The verdict Even by the normal standards of Test cricket in the UAE, this has been slow going. Pakistan’s run-rate of 2.38 per over is the lowest they have managed in a Test match in this country. With just 14 wickets having fallen in three days so far, it is difficult to see 26 dropping to bring about a result over the next two.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Automatic
Power: 530bhp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh535,000
On sale: Now
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
