China notched its slowest expansion since the 2009 financial crisis last quarter amid a debt clean up and trade woes, while signs of stabilisation in December suggest government efforts to cushion the deceleration are beginning to take hold.
Gross domestic product rose 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier compared with 6.5 per cent in the previous three-month period. In December, gauges of consumption and factory output accelerated, while investment held up.
The world’s second-largest economy is on a long-term slowing trajectory as it shifts from the investment-led model of the past while carrying a heavy debt load. The government’s response with targeted stimulus measures is being tested by the standoff with US President Donald Trump over trade at a time when the global expansion is already looking shakier.
"Growth will improve from the second quarter onwards," said Morgan Stanley's chief China economist Robin Xing in Hong Kong. "The greater the downward pressure on growth, the stronger the policy response will be."
The data contributed to a continued rally in Asian stocks. Shares in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney climbed after the S&P 500 Index hit its highest since early December on Friday.
___________
Read more:
China to double foreign investment programme quota to $300bn
Slump in China's foreign trade turns screw on deal with Trump
China’s engine of growth could finally run out of steam in 2019
___________
For the full year, the economy expanded 6.6 per cent, the slowest pace since 1990 and in line with estimates. Although it has moderated significantly from the years of double-digit growth, China is still one of the fastest growing large economies and its larger size now means it remains the world’s growth engine.
A breakdown of the data indicates modest signs that government stimulus may be working, albeit slowly. Investment in infrastructure continued its pickup from a nadir reached in September. Industrial output data signal stronger activity in construction, with glass and cement output both accelerating.
The retail sales breakdown also went some way to counter fears of a slump in consumer confidence, showing that the decline in auto sales far outpaces any weakening in other items. Sales of household electronics, furniture, clothing and food all accelerated.
“More crucial than the GDP figure for me was that retail sales didn’t see any further deterioration,” said James Laurenceson, deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney. “As long as services and retail sales are holding up, generally speaking China can get by. But if those remaining drivers of growth start to tank, then the trouble becomes very significant indeed.”
So far, the government and central bank have tried to stimulate the economy without resorting to a massive credit flood and infrastructure binge like in 2009. The People’s Bank of China has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates, and the fiscal authorities have pressed on with tax cuts and expedited government bond sales, among other policies.
With President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide Liu He heading to the US this month, the challenging economic background adds pressure to reach a deal on trade. According to people close to the discussions, the two sides have so far made little progress on the issue any deal Mr Trump strikes with China may ultimately be judged on: ending what the US has dubbed as decades of state-coordinated Chinese theft of American intellectual property.
Due to the massive size of its market, China’s slowdown is also bringing pain to companies and industries worldwide. Auto sales in the most populous nation dropped for the first time in three decades last year, hurting prospects of not only local manufacturers but also of companies such as Volkswagen and Toyota Motor.
Meantime, a downturn in iPhone sales in China has hurt Apple’s share price this month and raised question marks over whether the consumer can keep cushioning the economy’s re-balancing away from the old smokestack industries.
If the slowdown deepens, authorities may resort to more aggressive easing such as relaxing property purchasing curbs in the biggest cities, economists have speculated. Following the data, analysts were split over how much confidence the most recent numbers inspire, though most agreed the government will react if data worsen.
"There will be more stimulus, more monetary easing, more infrastructure investment, which will support the jobs in the manufacturing sector even if the business activities are low,” said Iris Pang, an analyst at ING Bank in Hong Kong.
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
%3Cp%3EFirst%20ODI%20-%20Sunday%2C%20June%204%20%0D%3Cbr%3ESecond%20ODI%20-%20Tuesday%2C%20June%206%20%0D%3Cbr%3EThird%20ODI%20-%20Friday%2C%20June%209%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMatches%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Stadium.%20All%20games%20start%20at%204.30pm%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Adithya%20Shetty%2C%20Ali%20Naseer%2C%20Ansh%20Tandon%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Ethan%20D%E2%80%99Souza%2C%20Fahad%20Nawaz%2C%20Jonathan%20Figy%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Lovepreet%20Singh%2C%20Matiullah%2C%20Mohammed%20Faraazuddin%2C%20Muhammad%20Jawadullah%2C%20Rameez%20Shahzad%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Sanchit%20Sharma%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
World%20Food%20Day%20
%3Cp%3ECelebrated%20on%20October%2016%2C%20to%20coincide%20with%20the%20founding%20date%20of%20the%20United%20Nations%20Food%20and%20Agriculture%20Organisation%2C%20World%20Food%20Day%20aims%20to%20tackle%20issues%20such%20as%20hunger%2C%20food%20security%2C%20food%20waste%20and%20the%20environmental%20impact%20of%20food%20production.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The biog
Simon Nadim has completed 7,000 dives.
The hardest dive in the UAE is the German U-boat 110m down off the Fujairah coast.
As a child, he loved the documentaries of Jacques Cousteau
He also led a team that discovered the long-lost portion of the Ines oil tanker.
If you are interested in diving, he runs the XR Hub Dive Centre in Fujairah
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
