Spain’s economy is going to pay a price for Catalonia’s bid for independence.
While the prime minister Mariano Rajoy has stepped in to take over the region, upcoming Catalan elections could prove another flashpoint for the independence movement. For Oxford Economics, that means lingering uncertainty, posing a risk to sentiment, share prices and bonds.
In their worst-case scenario, Spain’s expansion would be weaker and the economy would be €17 billion (Dh79.9bn) smaller in 2019 than would otherwise have been the case. That “adverse” view - not Oxford’s central projection - assumes a permanent increase in bond yields of 50 basis points and a 10 per cent decline in stocks in 2018 and 2019 compared with its baseline scenario.
“The economic impact of the Catalan independence crisis is still unknown, but the increased political tensions have already caused uncertainty to surge to the highest levels in over a decade,” said the senior euro-zone economist Angel Talavera.
_____________
Read more:
Uncertainty abounds for Catalonia's business community
Euro falls most this year on ECB bond decision and Spanish woes
_____________
The Catalan crisis erupted on October 1 when the former regional government held an illegal referendum on independence that it claimed as a mandate to declare independence from Spain. Mr Rajoy responded by invoking constitutional powers to disband Catalonia’s government, dissolve its parliament and call regional elections for December 21.
As hundreds of companies, led by CaixaBank, move their legal headquarters out of the area, the economy minister Luis de Guindos has warned that the crisis is taking its toll on both the Catalan and Spanish economies. Spain’s benchmark IBEX 35 stock index has dropped about 3.5 per cent since the end of September while the spread on 10-year Spanish debt over German bonds is little changed.
Oxford’s analysis also takes account of a so-called economic policy uncertainty index, which measures the number of news articles that contains the word “uncertainty” and related terms in Spain’s main newspapers as a gauge for political risk. It exceeded levels seen in 2016, when Spain was struggling to form a government, and household and business confidence will suffer if levels remain high, according to Ms Talavera.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Norway v Spain, Saturday, 10.45pm, UAE
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESupy%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDani%20El-Zein%2C%20Yazeed%20bin%20Busayyis%2C%20Ibrahim%20Bou%20Ncoula%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFood%20and%20beverage%2C%20tech%2C%20hospitality%20software%2C%20Saas%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%20for%20six%20months%3B%20pre-seed%20round%20of%20%241.5%20million%3B%20seed%20round%20of%20%248%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeco%20Capital%2C%20Cotu%20Ventures%2C%20Valia%20Ventures%20and%20Global%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
GROUPS
Group Gustavo Kuerten
Novak Djokovic (x1)
Alexander Zverev (x3)
Marin Cilic (x5)
John Isner (x8)
Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
match info
Maratha Arabians 138-2
C Lynn 91*, A Lyth 20, B Laughlin 1-15
Team Abu Dhabi 114-3
L Wright 40*, L Malinga 0-13, M McClenaghan 1-17
Maratha Arabians won by 24 runs
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
