Britain and the eurozone are on course to enter a double-dip recession this winter, as business surveys show economic growth stalling amid rising coronavirus cases and heightened restrictions to contain the pandemic.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK fell to a four-month low of 51.4 in October from 56.1 in September, while Eurozone composite PMI dropped to 50 last month from September’s 50.4.
The UK economy seems on course for a double-dip recession this winter and a far more challenging path to recovery in 2021.
The eurozone figure was dragged down by the services PMI, which fell to 46.9 in October from 48.0 the previous month, its lowest reading since May when the first Covid-19 wave was peaking in Europe. The index is a gauge of economic health, with a reading above the neutral 50 mark indicating expansion, while a reading below points to contraction.
IHS Markit economist Tim Moore said the October data indicates that the UK service sector “was close to stalling even before the announcement of lockdown one in England”.
“The UK economy seems on course for a double-dip recession this winter and a far more challenging path to recovery in 2021," he added.
Meanwhile, Jessica Hinds, Europe economist at Capital Economic said the eurozone’s final composite PMIs show economic activity flatlined in October.
“With countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions in November, the eurozone economy is likely to contract once again in Q4,” she said.
“Overall, we expect the measures, which we assume will be in place for three months, to cause eurozone GDP to contract by about 3 per cent in Q4 and then stagnate in Q1.”
From Thursday, all non-essential shops, pubs and restaurants in England will close for four weeks, unless they serve takeaway food, with office staff encouraged to work from home.
The restrictions are less wide-ranging than the first lockdown, with schools and universities staying open, and the construction, manufacturing and property sectors still operating. This will cause a less severe hit on economic output, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
British GDP slumped by 20 per cent during the longer lockdown in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest decline of any major advanced economy, and could collapse by 12 per cent in November, according to the NIESR, leading to a W-shaped recovery.
In Germany and France – the eurozone's two biggest economies – tough lockdown measures have been re-imposed with restaurants, gyms and shops closed and residents staying at home.
The IHS Markit surveys were conducted largely before new restrictions were put in place across Europe but forward-looking indicators were already bleak.
Services firms cut headcount for an eighth successive month, demand dropped further, backlogs of work were again depleted and optimism waned. The euro zone's business expectations index – which generally has only been lower this year and during the last two financial crises – sank to 54.2 from 59.2.
The European Central Bank said last week it would take new action in December to contain the widening economic fallout, while the Bank of England is widely expected to boost its stimulus package on Thursday.
Today’s data “confirmed the deterioration of the bloc’s near-term outlook”, said Maddalena Martini, eurozone economist at Oxford Economics, with the worsening of the health situation and the re-imposed restrictions set to hit the services sector further.
In Italy, the services PMI dropped to 46.7 in October from 48.8 the previous month, as a decline in activity and new business weighed on the sector, with foreign demand suffering a particularly sharp fall and firms reducing their staff at the fastest pace since July.
Similarly, Spain, the worst hit economy, saw activity in the services sector suffer from the resurgence of Covid-19 and lack of tourist activity.
"Even though confidence about the year ahead reached its highest since June, we expect Spain’s services sector will take long time to recover," said Ms Martini.
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Places to go for free coffee
- Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day.
- La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
- Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
- Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
More on Quran memorisation:
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)
Fletcher 68 not out; Cutting 2-14
Sindhis 129-8 (10 ov)
Perera 47; Sohail 2-18
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
HOW TO WATCH
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%3Cp%3E-%20US%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20435%20members%20make%20up%20the%20House%2C%20and%20100%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20party%20needs%20control%20of%20218%20seats%20to%20have%20a%20majority%20in%20the%20House%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20Senate%2C%20a%20party%20needs%20to%20hold%2051%20seats%20for%20control%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20event%20of%20a%2050-50%20split%2C%20the%20vice%20president's%20party%20retains%20power%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BRIEF SCORES:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Fast%20X
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