Lebanon’s economy will contract far deeper than previously forecast, shrinking 24 per cent this year, compared with an earlier 15 per cent estimate, as a result of last week's Beirut port explosion, the Institute of International Finance said.
The explosion, blamed on 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored at the port, killed at least 158 people, and wounded more than 6,000. More than 300,000 people have been made homeless and the damage is estimated to exceed $7 billion (Dh25.7bn), or about 14 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product last year, the IIF said.
“Given the large contraction in output and the massive depreciation of the parallel exchange rate, GDP could shrink from $52bn in 2019 to $33bn in 2020,” Garbis Iradian, the IIF’s chief economist for the Mena region said shortly before Lebanon's government resigned on Monday.
“Wages are falling sharply in real terms as the pass-through effect from the large parallel exchange rate depreciation led prices to rise rapidly.”
Prior to the explosion Lebanon was already facing its worst economic crisis since its independence in 1943. It defaulted on $31bn in eurobonds in March which led its currency, pegged to the US dollar, to lose more than 80 per cent of its value against the greenback in the black market. Inflation surged, which led the government to turn to the International Monetary Fund in May for a $10bn bailout package.
With IMF talks stalled, inflation is likely to have exceeded 110 per cent in July, while unemployment and poverty rates climbed to 35 per cent and 50 per cent respectively, the Washington-based IIF said.
“The government and parliament have wasted much time on debating the scale of losses of the banking system and on blaming opposition political parties and foreign governments for the lack of international financial support,” Mr Iradian said.
Though Lebanon received pledges of $300m at a donor conference organised by France and the United Nations on Sunday, there are food security concerns after the explosion devastated its primary grain silos at the port.
The country’s ports in Tripoli and Sidon are much smaller than Beirut’s port, which handled at least 70 per cent of imports.
Lebanon’s current account deficit is projected to narrow because of the collapse in domestic demand to 12 per cent of GDP from 22 per cent, according to the IIF. Official reserves are expected to decline by about $7bn to $12bn by the end of 2020, it said.
Economic reform is a key perquisite for IMF assistance and the ability of the country to access $11bn pledged by donors at a 2018 conference. Reforming and limiting further deterioration will “require addressing Lebanon’s endemic corruption head-on”, Mr Iradian said.
“Doing so will require strong political will to create effective institutions that promote integrity and accountability throughout the public sector."
The adoption of new technologies could help strengthen key fiscal functions, including budget processes and revenue administration, as well as internal controls, according to the IIF.
"The independence of the Lebanese judicial system is often challenged by political interference. An anti-corruption legal framework should include legislation criminalising different types of corruption and provide a code of conduct and rules of disclosure for public officials," Mr Iradian said.
"However, it is unlikely that the current leadership will approve the necessary laws to fight corruption.”
Until Lebanon forms a new government that meets the demands of protesters the outgoing cabinet, according to the country's political system, serves as a caretaker government, but won't have a mandate to implement any reforms or advance talks with the IMF.
The IIF said there are two scenarios that could play out in the medium term. It assumed there is a 60 per cent probability that there will be significant political change and real economic reforms. That includes the formation of a new government, independent of sectarian allegiances, that have defined and held the country back from implementing necessary reforms since the end of its last civil war in 1990.
Under this scenario, IMF reforms are implemented, the aspirations of citizens are met, and early parliamentary elections are held.
“The state also needs to reduce its footprint in the economy by adopting a hands-off approach to managing vital sectors such as electricity and telecommunications and allowing private sector participation, including in the reconstruction of the Beirut port,” Mr Iradian said.
Under this scenario, the Lebanese pound could appreciate to below 6500 pounds to the dollars by early 2021 in the parallel exchange rate, with inflation gradually declining. The country would be able to access donor funds and secure financial assistance from the IMF, with the central bank shoring up its reserves, according to the IIF.
“Without political change and real economic reforms, the country will continue to sink,” Mr Iradian said.
Given the “magnitude” of the Lebanon’s problems, limited reforms erode confidence further and the currency will depreciate, while inflation will remain high, according to the IIF.
“With these headwinds, the economy will continue to contract, and debt will remain well above 120 per cent of GDP by 2024.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mobile phone packages comparison
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20RB%20Sarab%2C%20Allaia%20Tiar%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.30pm%3A%20Mamsha%20Alkhair%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mutaqadim%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Emirates%20Fillies%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Almotajalliah%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.30pm%3A%20Emirates%20Colts%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fadwaan%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh2%2C500%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mujeeb%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.30pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Western%20Writer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
More from UAE Human Development Report:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is Reform?
Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.
It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.
Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.
After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.
Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.
The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Messi at the Copa America
2007 – lost 3-0 to Brazil in the final
2011 – lost to Uruguay on penalties in the quarter-finals
2015 – lost to Chile on penalties in the final
2016 – lost to Chile on penalties in the final
