The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain this month its projection that the economy will gradually recover from the damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic in the latter half of this year, sources said.
Such a view would reinforce market expectations that it will forgo bold monetary easing steps at its June rate review, after the BOJ and the government unveiled a slew of support measures for businesses in the last few months.
But it would contrast with the European Central Bank's move on Thursday to offer a bigger-than-expected expansion of its stimulus package to prop up the economy.
The BOJ's optimism reflects its growing conviction that the world's third-largest economy hit bottom in April or May, when lockdown steps kept citizens home and businesses shut, said four sources familiar with the central bank's thinking.
"There aren't enough factors that would force the BOJ to alter its view the economy will emerge from the doldrums in latter half of this year as the pandemic subsides," one of the sources said, a view echoed by three other sources.
That stance would reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts or a massive increase in asset purchases at the BOJ's June 15-16 rate review.
Still, many central bankers warn of risks that could slow the pace of recovery, such as a renewed spike in infections, rising job losses and a bigger-than-expected slump in emerging economies.
"The April-June quarter is probably the bottom for Japan's economy. But the slump in growth may become bigger and the rebound slower than initially thought," a second source said.
Fund aid, not stimulus
The BOJ eased monetary policy for two straight months in April, joining government efforts to cushion the blow from the pandemic on an economy already sliding into deep recession.
Steps so far have focused on easing corporate funding strains, such as increased purchases of corporate debt and the creation of lending facilities to help small firms.
While its US and European counterparts are shifting from crisis response towards steps to reflate growth, the BOJ remains wary of using tools directly aimed at stimulating demand - such as rate cuts - too hastily, the sources said.
That means the BOJ's most likely option, even if it were to act in coming months, would be to expand its lending facility or take new steps to ease stress on companies, they said.
"There's no point trying to stimulate the economy now when the government is still asking people to stay home as much as possible to contain the pandemic," a third source said.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a state of emergency in April requesting citizens to stay home and businesses to close, hammering an economy that was already suffering from the hit from a sales tax hike last year and the US-China trade war.
While Japan lifted lockdown measures in May, analysts expect the economy to contract by an annualised 22 per cent in the current quarter and recover only modestly in the second half of this year.
"Japan's economy will rebound in July-September if there's no renewed spike in infections. Even so, it may take until 2023 or 2024 for the economy to climb back to levels before the pandemic hit," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"The BOJ may not need to act now. But if job losses start to spike, it may come under pressure to loosen policy again."
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
FIGHT%20CARD
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TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
MATCH INFO
Everton 2 Southampton 1
Everton: Walcott (15'), Richarlison (31' )
Southampton: Ings (54')
Man of the match: Theo Walcott (Everton)
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Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
Company%20Profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2
Vinicius Junior (71') Mariano (90 2')
Barcelona 0
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What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
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White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
