The Bank of England held interest rates on Thursday and said weak growth during a snowy start to 2018 was likely to be only temporary, but it wanted to see a pick-up in the economy in the next few months before raising borrowing costs.
In sharp contrast to widespread expectations just a few weeks ago that it would raise rates, the BoE said its nine rate-setters voted 7-2 to keep them at 0.5 per cent. That was in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.
Investors responded to the announcement by slightly pushing back their expectations of when the BoE was likely to raise rates for only the second time since the global financial crisis. Sterling fell to a day's low of $1.352, reversing earlier gains, and the yield on two-year British government bonds, which are sensitive to monetary policy expectations, fell modestly.
"Rate-setters have kicked the interest rate can down the road once more," Tom Stevenson, investment director for Personal Investing at Fidelity International said.
Britain's economy grew more slowly than most of its peers last year after a Brexit-driven jump in inflation hit consumer spending power and some businesses delayed long-term investment. Growth slowed even more sharply in the first quarter of 2018 due to a mix of unusually snowy weather and headwinds from Britain's impending exit from the European Union. Surveys have suggested little rebound last month.
The BoE on Thursday cut its forecasts for inflation and for growth, especially in 2018, reflecting the weak first-quarter figures, which the central bank said would probably be revised up. For now, most policymakers wanted to wait to be sure that the weakness passes quickly.
"The recent weakness in data for the first quarter had been consistent with a temporary soft patch, with few implications for ... the outlook for the UK economy," the majority of BoE Monetary Policy Committee members said.
"There was value in seeing how the data unfolded over the coming months, to discern whether the softness in Q1 might persist," they said. This potentially leaves the door open for a rate rise in August, the next time the BoE updates its economic forecasts.
Policymakers Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders, who again voted for a rate rise, agreed the weak growth so far this year reflected "temporary or erratic factors", but said delaying a rate hike risked more abrupt tightening later on.
BoE governor Mark Carney suggested in April that the central bank might not raise rates in May because of the mixed economic data, causing a sharp reversal in bets on a May hike.
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Read more:
BoE deputy says rates could rise sooner
Bank of England hints at earlier rate rises as economy picks up pace
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The central bank said on Thursday that inflation had fallen faster than it expected. But this was due to a faster fading of the impact of the plunge in sterling on the price of imports, and that domestic inflation pressures continued to rise. Inflation was seen dropping to 2.1 per cent in a year's time, and returning to target a year later - sooner than previously thought - but only if interest rates rose by 25 basis points about three times over the next three years, as markets expect.
Mr Carney said the bank's nine-member rate-setting body thinks the "underlying pace of growth remains more resilient than the headline data suggest", according to AP.
The BoE said it expected Britain's economy would grow by 1.4 per cent this year, down from the 1.8 per cent rate it predicted in February, which was a bit above what most economists thought likely at the time. The lower 2018 growth prediction reflected the early weakness, Bloomberg said.
But slowing consumer lending and a sluggish housing market created greater-than-usual uncertainty about consumer demand, the BoE said. For 2019 and 2020, it predicted GDP growth would pick up to 1.7 per cent, down from 1.8 per cent in its February forecasts.
The BoE thinks that unless interest rates rise, even modest economic growth of about 1.5 per cent a year risks stoking excess inflation, due to Britain's long-standing weak productivity growth and reduced immigration as a result of Brexit. Wage growth was forecast to pick up slightly less strongly this year than had been forecast before. Inflation has fallen after reaching its highest in more than five years in late 2017, but at 2.5 per cent it is still well above the BoE's 2 per cent target.
Since he joined the BoE in 2013, Mr Carney has signalled several times that the time was nearing for rates to rise from the historic low of 0.5 per cent reached during the 2008-09 financial crisis, only for economic data to surprise him.
In November, the BoE raised rates for the first time in over a decade, reversing a cut made shortly after the Brexit vote. In February, Mr Carney said rates might need to rise somewhat faster than markets had expected.
A few days before Thursday's announcement, economists polled by Reuters on average expected rates to rise in August, though a number think the BoE may have missed the boat if growth continues to be lacklustre in the run-up to Brexit.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs: 2018 Maserati Levante S
Price, base / as tested: Dh409,000 / Dh467,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 430hp @ 5,750rpm
Torque: 580Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.9L / 100km
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Jewel of the Expo 2020
252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome
13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas
550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome
724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses
Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa
Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site
The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants
Al Wasl means connection in Arabic
World’s largest 360-degree projection surface
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20Profile
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Small Victories: The True Story of Faith No More by Adrian Harte
Jawbone Press
