Asia's coal miners, shippers and traders are seeing strong demand and rising prices for their fuel, and they expect this happy situation to persist for several years to come.
It was a challenge to find anybody pessimistic about the outlook for coal in Asia, the world's largest producing and consuming region, at last week's annual gathering of the industry on the Indonesian resort island of Bali.
This was in stark contrast to the Coaltrans Asia conferences in prior years, where the moods were gloomy as the industry battled to survive five years of declining prices from 2011 to 2015 and policies aimed at cutting the use of the polluting fuel in the two biggest importers, China and India.
Certainly, it would seem that the industry has some reason to be optimistic, with Chinese imports up 9.3 per cent in the first four months of the year, and hopes that India's two years of declining imports will end in 2018. Prices are also performing better recently, with Australian benchmark thermal coal at Newcastle Port up to $101.35 a tonne in the week ended May 6, a gain of 11.6 per cent from the low so far this year of $90.68 at the end of March. Even low-rank Indonesian coal is performing better, with Argus Media assessing 4,200 kilocalorie per kilogram (kcal/kg) coal at $42.79 a tonne in the week to May 4, up from the 2018 low of $41.08 on April 13, and 18.2 per cent higher than the low for 2017 of $36.20 in May of that year.
The main driver of coal's improving performance is Chinese demand, with traders reporting buying interest from China for a variety of coal grades, from low-rank Indonesian fuel to higher quality coal from Australia. The bullish Chinese story may have taken a slight hit in the April numbers, with customs data showing coal imports dropped to 22.8 million tonnes from 26.7 million the month before. But traders at the Bali event expressed confidence that this was merely a blip, caused largely by some increased scrutiny by customs and certain port restrictions, impediments that they expect to only last a short time.
India's imports were also lower month-on-month in April, dropping to 15.5 million tonnes from March's 16.6 million, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts.
But India's imports are up slightly in the first four months of 2018, to 60.4 million tonnes, a gain of 3 per cent over the 58.6 million recorded in the same period last year.
Although both China and India have shown only modest increases in imports so far this year, this is stoking optimism in the industry, especially when added to additional emerging demand from other Asian countries, such as Pakistan and Vietnam.
But while there may be scope to be bullish on the short- to medium-term outlook for coal, the risk factors for the industry appear to be mounting.
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Read more:
While coal is a dirty word to some, Africa is relying on it
Modi’s electricity promise has dim returns for hundreds of thousands in India
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On the supply side it appears that it will be quite difficult to add any more tonnes to the market to meet additional demand. Indonesia, the top shipper of thermal coal used in power plants, has put in place policies aimed at directing more of its coal to the domestic market, and the government appears to be mulling restricting overall output in order to conserve resources for the long term.
Like many government policies in Indonesia, this is likely to go through several iterations and changes, but the trend does appear clear, and it's toward lower overall exports over time.
In Australia, the main constraint on boosting exports is environmental activism against the industry, which is becoming more sophisticated as well as popular with the public. Witness the struggles of India's Adani Enterprises to finance and build its Carmichael mine, which is currently the largest coal project in the world aimed at the seaborne market. While Adani has all the necessary government approvals, it's struggling to find financial backers and is facing a non-stop public campaign against Carmichael, which is starting to cause its political support to evaporate.
The other major supplier of coal to Asia, South Africa, has capacity constraints and is unlikely to be able to boost its shipments, leaving additional tonnes to come from new mines in Mozambique, and possibly from the United States and Colombia.
The looming supply constraints suggest prices will rise, which may be seen as good news for miners, but ultimately serves to undermine coal's main advantage over natural gas and renewables, namely being cheaper. This is already happening in India, where power plants relying on imported coal are struggling to be profitable, while solar generators are able to offer lower prices.
Also, supply constraints may cause power plant developers in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines to think twice about making a 40-year commitment to building a coal-fired plant. If your plan is to buy cheap Indonesian low-rank coal for your power plant for the coming decades, you now have to consider the possibility that there won't be enough, and what there is won't be cheap.
The coal industry in Asia also tends to ignore the pollution elephant in the room. The idea that public pressure may halt coal projects or force cutbacks in its consumption seems alien to many in the industry, despite evidence that this is exactly what is happening in China, and has already happened in Europe.
Ten years ago the conversation I had most often with people in China's coal sector was how they were going to have to cut back on burning the fuel. It took some years, but the trend is now clear in China, and the authorities are actively looking to boost the use of natural gas, nuclear and renewables over coal. It's almost inevitable that similar pressures will emerge in India, and any other country that decides to make coal its main source of power.
While the coal sector in Asia is currently enjoying something of a renaissance, the longer-term outlook is darkening.
Reuters
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RESULTS
5pm: Watha Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Dalil De Carrere, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Mohamed Daggash (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Pharitz Al Denari, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mahmood Hussain
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Oss, Jesus Rosales, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Almajhaz, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Lewaa, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud.
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
Company%20profile
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGrowdash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Trevaskis%20and%20Enver%20Sorkun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERestaurant%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20Judah%20VC%2C%20TPN%20Investments%20and%20angel%20investors%2C%20including%20former%20Talabat%20chief%20executive%20Abdulhamid%20Alomar%2C%20and%20entrepreneur%20Zeid%20Husban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ads on social media can 'normalise' drugs
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
Dubai World Cup Carnival card:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 | 2,410 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m
Wonka
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Paul%20King%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3ETimothee%20Chalamet%2C%20Olivia%20Colman%2C%20Hugh%20Grant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
Essentials
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Seattle from Dh6,755 return in economy and Dh24,775 in business class.
The cruise
UnCruise Adventures offers a variety of small-ship cruises in Alaska and around the world. A 14-day Alaska’s Inside Passage and San Juans Cruise from Seattle to Juneau or reverse costs from $4,695 (Dh17,246), including accommodation, food and most activities. Trips in 2019 start in April and run until September.
The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
match details
Wales v Hungary
Cardiff City Stadium, kick-off 11.45pm
SERIES SCHEDULE
First Test, Galle International Stadium
July 26-30
Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
August 3-7
Third Test, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 12-16
First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium
August 20
Second ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 24
Third ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 27
Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31
Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3
T20, R Premadasa Stadium
September 6
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20profile
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RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
MATCH DETAILS
Manchester United 3
Greenwood (21), Martial (33), Rashford (49)
Partizan Belgrade 0
