The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year on milder-than-expected tariff increases and private sector resilience to tariff pressures.
With fragilities and risks abounding, the weaker US dollar has both amplified the tariff shock and supported global trade, the Washington-based multilateral lender said in its latest World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday.
The fund said it expects global output to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2025 – up from its July forecast of 3 per cent – and 3.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from its previous estimate.
Global headline inflation is forecast to dip to 4.2 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2026, almost unchanged since the previous forecast.
The IMF increased its forecast for economic growth the in the US, the world's biggest economy, while it kept growth projections for China unchanged.
Economic forecasts for the Middle East were revised slightly higher, driven by growth in Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest economy.
'Steady but fragile'
Although the global economy has remained steady so far in the face of Trump administration's push to levy tariffs on its trading partners, a new degree of uncertainty now prevails in trade patterns.
“The global outlook as we see it is steady but fragile,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.
The latest report is the second straight upgrade in which the fund has raised its forecast for the global economy after President Donald Trump's tariff announcement in April.
The global outlook as we see it is steady but fragile
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,
IMF chief economist
Still, should the forecasts hold up, it would mark a decline from last year's annual growth rate of 3.3 per cent and remain below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 per cent.
“Bottom line: not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need,” Mr Gourinchas said.
Minor upgrade for US
The IMF said it projects the US economy to grow at a 2.0 per cent rate in 2025 and 2.1 per cent in 2026. The upwards revision reflects lower tariff rates, a fiscal boost from the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and easing of financial conditions, although the fund said it still represents a significant slowdown from 2024.
The US economy has so far remained resilient to tariff-driven higher prices that are expected to filter through the economy, posting GDP growth of 3.8 per cent in the second quarter following an import-driven contraction in the first quarter.
The IMF anticipates inflation to pick up in the US in the second half this year as higher prices are passed on to consumers.
Saudi Arabia drives Mena outlook
The fund slightly raised its forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, which is projected to grow 3.3 per cent rate in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, up 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points from July estimates, respectively.
The revision was driven by growth in Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's largest economy, which is forecast to grow at a 4 per cent pace this year and next, up 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, because of Opec+'s unwinding of voluntary oil production cuts.
The regional forecast is also expected to benefit from stronger-than-expected first-half economic performance in Egypt, the most populous Arab nation.
Despite the Middle East's limited exposure to new US tariffs, the IMF's growth projections are cumulatively 0.8 percentage points lower this year and the next due to the indirect effects of weaker world demand on commodity prices, it said.
The UAE economy is expected to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 5 per cent in 2026, unchanged from the projects during the fund's mission to the Emirates earlier this month.
The fund will release its full outlook for the Middle East next week in Dubai.
Euro area and India
The surge of investment in artificial intelligence, fiscal policy in the euro area and China have also helped support the global economy this year despite shifting trade patterns and economic headwinds.
India, where a 50 per cent tariff rate imposed by the US came into effect in August, is expected to record growth of 6.6 per cent this year due to a strong first quarter, offsetting the tariffs' impact.
Growth in the euro area is estimated at 1.2 per cent in 2025 and 1.1 per cent in 2026, a decrease from the fund's 2024 forecast, due to higher tariffs and elevated uncertainty only marginally offset by strong private consumption in Germany and robust economic performance in Ireland.
The UK, the second-largest economy in Europe, is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent each in 2025 and 2026.
Tariff uncertainty
Despite the revised outlook, Mr Gourinchas said it would be “premature” to assume there have not been any effects from the tariff shock.
“There is trade policy uncertainty that remains. The deals are not all sealed. There could still be tensions,” Mr Gourinchas said.
This week's meetings began under fresh trade threats between the US and China. Beijing last week announced new export restrictions on critical minerals, prompting a furious Mr Trump to announce a new 100 per cent tariff on China. US markets rebounded on Monday after a sell-off no Friday after Mr Trump softened his rhetoric over the weekend.
The developments added another wrinkle to negotiations between the US and China, which had previously agreed to lower their high tariff rates set on each other earlier this year. Mr Trump also cast doubt over whether he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this month.
"The most recent announcements last week make us realise that trade uncertainty is still with us," Mr Gourinchas said.
And while the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Japan, the EU and others, Mr Trump has yet to close deals with Canada and Mexico – the two largest US trade partners.
AI warning
The IMF on Tuesday also delivered a warning on artificial intelligence, whose promised productivity gains have pushed US markets to record-highs this year.
US private investment grew to $109.1 billion in 2024, according to data from Stanford University. And AI start-ups in the first half of this year raised $104.3 billion in the US, almost matching the total investment for 2024, PitchBook data showed.
The fund noted risks to the AI boom, arguing that there could be a market correction if AI hype is not justified, and that the investment surge could add to price pressures in the US.
“If the AI investment boom is not all hype … some of this will translate in productivity gains that would be good for the global economy,” Mr Gourinchas said.
Should trade tensions be resolved and AI hype does pan out, global output could increase by up to 1 percentage point, he added.
Central bank independence
The fund also made a call for the protection of central bank independence, as Mr Trump continues to seek greater control over the Federal Reserve.
While not naming the Fed in its report, the fund said protecting central bank independence is critical for economic stability, warning that losing such credibility could lead to higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy.
Mr Trump has made consistent efforts this year to reshape the Fed to his liking that includes a legal battle over his attempt to oust a sitting Federal Reserve governor.
The US President has repeatedly pressured the Fed to dramatically lower rates this year to help service the nation's debt – a concept known as fiscal dominance. The Fed has so far defied those calls.
“Seeking to influence the central bank to keep policy rates low or tolerating surprise inflation may appear to ease the near-term fiscal arithmetic, but it is eventually self-defeating,” the fund said.
Company%20profile%20
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Bharat
Director: Ali Abbas Zafar
Starring: Salman Khan, Katrina Kaif, Sunil Grover
Rating: 2.5 out of 5 stars
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Scoreline
Real Madrid 1
Ronaldo (53')
Atletico Madrid 1
Griezmann (57')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
ATP China Open
G Dimitrov (BUL x3) bt R Bautista Agut (ESP x5)
7-6, 4-6, 6-2
R Nadal (ESP x1) bt J Isner (USA x6)
6-4, 7-6
WTA China Open
S Halep (ROU x2) bt D Kasatkina (RUS)
6-2, 6-1
J Ostapenko (LAT x9) bt S Cirstea (ROU)
6-4, 6-4
ATP Japan Open
D Schwartzman (ARG x8) bt S Johnson (USA)
6-0, 7-5
D Goffin (BEL x4) bt R Gasquet (FRA)
7-5, 6-2
M Cilic (CRO x1) bt R Harrison (USA)
6-2, 6-0
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
The biog
From: Ras Al Khaimah
Age: 50
Profession: Electronic engineer, worked with Etisalat for the past 20 years
Hobbies: 'Anything that involves exploration, hunting, fishing, mountaineering, the sea, hiking, scuba diving, and adventure sports'
Favourite quote: 'Life is so simple, enjoy it'
Fixture and table
UAE finals day: Friday, April 13 at Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
- 3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
- 6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership – final standings
- Dubai Exiles
- Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Jebel Ali Dragons
- Dubai Hurricanes
- Dubai Sports City Eagles
- Abu Dhabi Saracens
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
DUBAI SEVENS 2018 DRAW
Gulf Men’s League
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Sports City Eagles
Pool B – Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf Men’s Open
Pool A – Bahrain Firbolgs, Arabian Knights, Yalla Rugby, Muscat
Pool B – Amman Citadel, APB Dubai Sharks, Jebel Ali Dragons 2, Saudi Rugby
Pool C – Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2, Roberts Construction, Dubai Exiles 2
Pool D – Dubai Tigers, UAE Shaheen, Sharjah Wanderers, Amman Citadel 2
Gulf U19 Boys
Pool A – Deira International School, Dubai Hurricanes, British School Al Khubairat, Jumeirah English Speaking School B
Pool B – Dubai English Speaking College 2, Jumeirah College, Dubai College A, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2
Pool C – Bahrain Colts, Al Yasmina School, DESC, DC B
Pool D – Al Ain Amblers, Repton Royals, Dubai Exiles, Gems World Academy Dubai
Pool E – JESS A, Abu Dhabi Sharks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 1, EC
Gulf Women
Pool A – Kuwait Scorpions, Black Ruggers, Dubai Sports City Eagles, Dubai Hurricanes 2
Pool B – Emirates Firebirds, Sharjah Wanderers, RAK Rides, Beirut Aconites
Pool C – Dubai Hurricanes, Emirates Firebirds 2, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Transforma Panthers
Pool D – AUC Wolves, Dubai Hawks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf U19 Girls
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, BSAK, DESC, Al Maha
Pool B – Arabian Knights, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Abu Dhabi Harlequins
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 0
Wolves 2 (Traore 80', 90 4')
