The International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth projection for this year higher, although uncertainty remains high due to US President Donald Trump's shifting tariff agenda.
The world economy is now estimated to expand by 3 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous forecast, the Washington-based fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.
The fund projects global growth to hit 3.2 per cent in 2026, 0.1 percentage points higher than its April forecast.
IMF's latest projections come roughly three months after Mr Trump first unveiled his sweeping universal tariff policy on almost all major trade partners, as well as harsher so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of other countries.
The fund said the shift reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of tariffs, lower average US tariff rate on partners than previously announced, a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some major economies.
“This modest decline in trade tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
However, this resilience, Mr Gourinchas said, is “tenuous”.
High uncertainty despite tariff talks
Mr Trump's tariffs shook the world economy following his April 2 Liberation Day announcement.
Although the effective tariff rates are lower than the ones announced, the fund said uncertainty remains elevated, which could weigh on economic activity.
The implementation date for those reciprocal tariffs were delayed until August 1 following an initial bond-market rout, while the US administration has looked to secure trade deals with trading partners. The White House has touted trade agreements struck with some of those partners, including Japan and the EU as major achievements.
On Monday, Mr Trump suggested he is considering increasing the blanket tariff rate between 15 per cent and 20 per cent on imports from countries that have not reached a trade deal with the US. The rate would be in line with what he has recently announced with Japan and the EU.
It would also represent a higher tariff rate for the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries that have neither reached a trade agreement with the US nor received a so-called trade letter from Mr Trump.
Meanwhile, trade tension between the US and China – a major source of concern for the global economy – also somewhat cooled when the two announced a trade truce, lowering their reciprocal tariffs.
“Despite these welcome developments, tariffs remain historically high, and global policy remains highly uncertain,” Mr Gourinchas said, noting the few trade agreements reached since April.
US and China officials resume talks in Sweden this week to extend the temporary truce by three months, ahead of an August 12 deadline.
Revisions mask weaker prospects
Global growth this year should also be seen a consequence of tariff distortion rather than underlying robustness, the IMF said. The latest growth forecasts are lower than what the fund predicted in 2024 (3.3 per cent) and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7 per cent.
“While the trade shock could turn out to be less severe than initially feared, it is still sizeable, and evidence is mounting that it is hurting the global economy,” Mr Gourinchas said.
The US economy is estimated to expand at 1.9 per cent this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the fund's April forecast, before picking up to 2 per cent in 2026, owing to a near-term boost from Mr Trump's One Big Beautiful Act Bill.
It contracted by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter this year due to an import surge ahead of tariffs. The US government is due to release second-quarter gross domestic product figures on Wednesday.
The tariff episode has also led to the dollar depreciating by 8 per cent this year, which has magnified the shock of levies on other countries' competitiveness, Mr Gourinchas said.
China received the biggest revision of countries listed in the fund's latest release.
IMF now expects the world's second-largest economy is now projected to grow by 4.8 per cent this year, up from the fund's previous 4 per cent estimate. The revision reflects the significant reduction in US-China tariffs and stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025, the fund said.
Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is estimated at 3.4 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2026, while India's growth forecast has been revised slightly upwards at 6.4 per cent in 2025 and 2026.
In the Middle East, the upwards revision is mostly due to stronger than expected growth in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The IMF projects Saudi Arabia's economy to expand at a 3.6 per cent pace this year and 3.9 per cent in 2026.
“What's behind those upwards revisions – for this year, it's really the higher oil production, in spite of the lower oil prices, and this is linked to … the earlier phasing out of the voluntary oil production cuts,” said Petya Brooks, deputy director at the fund's research department.
Euro-area growth is expected to pick up to 1 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than previously estimated growth that the IMF attributed to strong GDP out-turn in Ireland. Growth in the euro area is projected to be 1.2 per cent in 2026.
The IMF also projects relatively stable growth in sub-Saharan Africa at 4 per cent this year, while growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent this year before bouncing back to 2.4 per cent next year.
Inflation trade-offs
Global headline inflation is projected to fall to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, unchanged from April but with mixed patterns across economies.
The fund anticipates tariffs to eventually pass through to US consumer prices and creep into inflation data in the second half of this year.
Elsewhere, tariffs could be a negative demand shock and lower inflationary pressures, while inflation dynamics in the euro area are expected to be more subdued, the IMF said.
Mixed inflation data has led to major central banks taking different approaches towards rates this year.
The Federal Reserve has been the focus of Mr Trump's anger for keeping its target range on interest rates steady this year at 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
The European Central Bank on the other hand has cut rates three times this year to its current 2.25 per cent.
Central banks could face difficult trade-offs due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, warned the fund.
The Israel-Iran war, for instance, led to a brief spike in oil prices before they settled around at the current price point of roughly $69 a barrel. The IMF said escalating tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine could lead to lower growth and rekindle inflationary pressures.
“Central banks could face more difficult trade-offs when they are already grappling with challenges from the trade environment,” the fund said.
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
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Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
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Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km
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Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
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Engine: Duel electric motors
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Price: On request
Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
Arabian Gulf Cup FINAL
Al Nasr 2
(Negredo 1, Tozo 50)
Shabab Al Ahli 1
(Jaber 13)
