The Federal Reserve enters this week facing relentless pressure from the White House, mixed economic data and continued uncertainty. Yet, in the face of it all, the US central bank is expected to hold rates steady once more.
The meeting comes less than a week after President Donald Trump's tour of the Fed headquarters, where he and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly bickered over the renovation project's costs.
But with Mr Trump on holiday in Scotland, focus now shifts towards the Fed's interest rates. Mr Powell had acknowledged the bank would have cut rates by now were it not for Mr Trump's tariffs, which have put the global economy on edge since his announcement on April 2.
The President's harsher “reciprocal tariffs” are due to take effect on Friday. Meanwhile, recent data shows that other charges are beginning to be passed on to consumers.
The Labour Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation rose to 2.7 per cent annually in June. Everyday goods such as toys, household appliances and clothing also saw price increases.
Citing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the current inflation level above its 2 per cent target, most Fed officials are signalling they will keep their target range level for a fifth consecutive meeting at 4.25 to 4.50 per cent.
The UAE Central Bank, which mirrors Fed decisions due to the dollar peg, would also be expected to hold rates at 4.4 per cent following the US central bank's announcement.
Path forward
According to the Fed's projections from June, it still expects to cut rates twice this year to bring its target level to around 3.9 per cent. But with the central bank likely to hold interest rates at this meeting and only three left on the calendar this year, the window to cut is closing.
“We're simply taking some time,” Mr Powell said during a panel discussion in Portugal at the start of July.
Mr Powell has practised extreme caution towards cutting rates this year, afraid that moving too soon or too quickly could lead to a renewed spike in prices not long after the most recent inflationary surge, with CPI inflation peaking at 9.1 per cent in 2022.
“When you get through an inflation episode like that, by the skin of their teeth, they're going to be really careful about anything that looks inflationary from now on,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LHMeyer/Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington.
Traders anticipate the Fed will resume cutting rates in September, before reductions in October and December, according to CME Group data.
A deluge of economic data this week should also give Fed officials greater clarity on the direction of the economy.
When you get through an inflation episode like that, by the skin of their teeth, they're going to be really careful about anything that looks inflationary from now on
Derek Tang,
economist at LHMeyer / Monetary Policy Analytics
The Labour Department will provide fresh insight into the health of the labour market with the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey on Tuesday and the June unemployment report on Friday.
The government will also report on second-quarter GDP hours before the Fed rate announcement. US economic activity contracted by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, but economists note that was due to a surge of imports as business rushed to get ahead of tariffs.
The Fed's preferred inflation metric – Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – for June is also due to be released on Thursday.
Fed divisions
Not everyone might be on board with the committee's decision this time. Public remarks indicate a growing division inside the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who holds a permanent vote on the rate-setting committee, laid out his case for a quarter-point cut earlier this month. Speaking in New York, he said the Fed should not wait for further weakening in the labour market to act.
“With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labour market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” he said.
US job growth was more solid than expected in June, although most of those gains occurred in the government sector. At the same time, the unemployment rate has remained steady around 4.1 per cent.
Dissents among FOMC members are rare. Under Mr Powell's stewardship, only 3 per cent of dissents have come from a Fed governor.
“I'm sure it'll get a lot of attention,” said David Wilcox, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of US economic research at Bloomberg Economics.
However, he argued such disagreements could guard against groupthink.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman could join Mr Waller's dissent after she voiced her own support for a rate cut this month.
It would be the first time two Fed governors dissented on a rate move since 2002, when Alan Greenspan was in charge of the central bank.
Mr Wilcox, a former staff member of the Federal Reserve Board, expects Mr Powell to acknowledge there could be a case to cut rates this week but that a majority of officials favour holding them steady.
“And he'll lay out the rationale for why that is,” he said.
What will Trump say?
Looming against this backdrop is Mr Trump, who softened his stance on Mr Powell last week after touring the Fed's headquarters.
Those attacks have ranged from calling the Fed Chair a “numbskull” to at times publicly considering whether he should fire him. But last week's tour offered some relief for Mr Powell after Mr Trump said he did not think the unprecedented move is necessary.
“I think we had a very good meeting on interest rates. And [Mr Powell] said to me … very strongly, the country is doing well,” Mr Trump told reporters after touring the Fed.
“I got that to mean that I think he’s going to start recommending lower rates.”
Mr Powell has sometimes cited the economy's strength as a reason not to move on rates.
The President's holiday in Scotland could give the Federal Reserve some breathing room for now, although Mr Trump has proven he can dictate the news cycle and gyrate financial markets with a push of a button.
OTHER IPL BOWLING RECORDS
Best bowling figures: 6-14 – Sohail Tanvir (for Rajasthan Royals against Chennai Super Kings in 2008)
Best average: 16.36 – Andrew Tye
Best economy rate: 6.53 – Sunil Narine
Best strike-rate: 12.83 – Andrew Tye
Best strike-rate in an innings: 1.50 – Suresh Raina (for Chennai Super Kings against Rajasthan Royals in 2011)
Most runs conceded in an innings: 70 – Basil Thampi (for Sunrisers Hyderabad against Royal Challengers Bangalore in 2018)
Most hat-tricks: 3 – Amit Mishra
Most dot-balls: 1,128 – Harbhajan Singh
Most maiden overs bowled: 14 – Praveen Kumar
Most four-wicket hauls: 6 – Sunil Narine
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How%20champions%20are%20made
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Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari, Jonathan Cape
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20366hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E550Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESix-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh360%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
SPECS
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
'Nope'
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How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Friday's schedule at the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
GP3 qualifying, 10:15am
Formula 2, practice 11:30am
Formula 1, first practice, 1pm
GP3 qualifying session, 3.10pm
Formula 1 second practice, 5pm
Formula 2 qualifying, 7pm
Company%20profile
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
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