War-torn Arab countries severely hit by US tariffs, says IMF
Regional director Jihad Azour says nations have suffered economic output losses as high as 60 per cent, while Riyadh summit hears talk of reform and resilience
Washington's tariffs regime has had a major impact on world economies but the repercussions for Middle East countries struggling with conflicts are even worse, according to the regional director of the International Monetary Fund.
For some countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, the impact of US levies compounded the shocks that have been jolting them for more than a year and a half, said Jihad Azour, who heads the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department.
“Especially where those [conflicts] were happening … Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza,” said Mr Azour during a Sunday high level panel discussion organised by the IMF's regional office in Riyadh.
The impact of US tariffs that suddenly went from 5 per cent to about 30 per cent for many countries was telling.
Those economies suffered, “with losses of output that could exceed 50 or 60 per cent of GDP”, he said, adding that the impact was even more severe for countries, whose economies were reliant on regional tourism as their supply chains were heavily affected.
“Egypt suffered because of uncertainty on the trade routes, $7 billion [that] they used to collect by the Suez Canal disappeared over less than one year,” he said in his opening address, identifying Jordan as another hard-hit country.
Despite these pressures, Mr Azour said recent developments such as increased regional co-operation, private investment and the push for the development of AI could help these economies in crisis to grow out of their current fragile state.
Financial deepening
In February, the IMF announced the creation of its informal coalition with Arab nations and the World Bank to support the recovery of the region's countries devastated by war – the Arab Co-ordination Group.
Today, the fund and its partners are focusing on areas of trade disruption, infrastructure investment, and using AI to accelerate private sector growth and regional co-operation to aid economies in crisis.
“The hope is that some of the conflicts could turn into a post conflict situation, and reconstruction and recovery will emerge” Mr Azour said.
Gulf countries, of which many have gone through a transformation in the past eight to 10 years, are in a better position to take action to support the struggling economies in the region, he said.
“Doubling down to deepen those reforms and create a regional block that would become larger as a market and more effective as a convening group,” Mr Azour added.
Shared effect
While some of the Middle East countries have faced the pressures of trade war market volatility and geopolitical upheaval, all these factors have affected nations around the world to varying degrees.
The impact of the economic uncertainty on the global financial sector is multifaceted and deep, according to Jamal Al Kishi, chief executive of Deutsche Bank Middle East and North Africa.
“There is a general decline in sentiment in the [global] economy that definitely lowers growth”, said Mr Al Kishi, during a panel titled Global and Regional Economic Developments and outlook.
Investments are typically halted, consumption at times is curtailed in addition to the demand for loans, products and other financial services declining, he said.
“Banks typically witness decline in the quality of their loans when there's lower growth and higher uncertainty. Some households, some corporate clients, run into difficulty that begins to create non-performing loans, that causes banks to incur losses and higher provisions, and those are, of course, quite impactful,” he added.
The culmination of all these issues usually lead to high interest rates from central banks and inflation, which are inimical to growth.
These global factors are increasing the load on economies already under the pressures of geopolitical conflict, and regional co-operation could be a way back to growth, Mr Al Kishi said.
Structural Reforms
Abdulmuhsen AlKhalaf, Vice Minister of Finance of Saudi Arabia, said the path to stability given the global economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty is “through structural reforms that regional countries need to take to support their economies during these difficult situations”.
Using the example of the kingdom, he said Saudi Arabia was able achieve 52 per cent of its economic output from non-oil activities to achieve its Vision 2030 goals.
“This give us … enhanced our resilience, and now we are facing this external shock from a position of strength,” he added.
The region's recent push for AI is also having an effect, according to Bandr Al Homaly, chief executive of Jada Fund of Funds, an investment management company backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.
“Technology overall can accelerate economic development with the democratisation of technology. The potential is huge, interconnected, and inclusive and private markets [that] will increase deal flow,” he said.
This was made possible with low barriers to entry, more accessibility to data, and the decentralisation of innovation hubs, said Mr Al Homaly.
“Innovation now can occur in unexpected places in the world not necessarily in Silicon Valley or other traditions hubs,” he said.
Glossary of a stock market revolution
Reddit
A discussion website
Redditor
The users of Reddit
Robinhood
A smartphone app for buying and selling shares
Short seller
Selling a stock today in the belief its price will fall in the future
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
The specs: 2017 GMC Sierra 1500 Denali
Price, base / as tested Dh207,846 / Dh220,000
Engine 6.2L V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque 624Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined 13.5L / 100km
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final When: July 1 Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
League D:
Azerbaijan, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based:Dubai
Founders:Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Cryopreservation: A timeline
Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
Ovarian tissue surgically removed
Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The biog
Born: near Sialkot, Pakistan, 1981
Profession: Driver
Family: wife, son (11), daughter (8)
Favourite drink: chai karak
Favourite place in Dubai: The neighbourhood of Khawaneej. “When I see the old houses over there, near the date palms, I can be reminded of my old times. If I don’t go down I cannot recall my old times.”
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
