US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the economic effects of America's recently announced tariffs could force the central bank to decide whether to prioritise high inflation or weakening growth.
“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Mr Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago.
Unlike most other central banks, the Fed has two mandates – maintaining price stability and promoting employment growth. Economists fear that Mr Trump's larger-than-expected tariffs could reignite inflation, drive up unemployment and weaken growth.
“If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close,” Mr Powell said.
He said he expects the US economy to slow in the first quarter compared to last year's pace.
However, he maintained his suggestion that the Fed could be patient in cutting interest rates as it awaits “greater clarity” on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and taxation.
Mr Powell said tariffs will probably create at least a temporary inflationary bump but warned the effects could be more persistent.
Part of the reason why tariffs may not lead to a one-time surge could be due to disruption in the global supply chain as a result of duties on China, and the impact of tariffs on the auto industry.
“That is the kind of thing it can take time to resolve, and it can lead what would have been a one-time inflation shock to be extended, perhaps more persistent,” Mr Powell said.
“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem."
His comments come as uncertainty over Mr Trump's tariffs has led to increased volatility in financial markets. That has fed into the bond market, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising more than 50 basis points last week to about 4.5 per cent at the end of last week, before settling at about 4.3 per cent this week.
Despite the uncertainty and volatility surrounding markets, Mr Powell maintained they remained healthy.
"Markets are doing what they're supposed to do. They're orderly, and they're functioning just about as you would expect to function," he said.
The Fed held its benchmark rate at about 4.3 per cent during its March meeting. Traders anticipate it will hold interest rates steady again next month before resuming cuts in June, according to CME Group data.
Current data shows that the US economy is in a good place. Reports showed the inflation cooled last month and that hiring remains solid, although surveys show consumer sentiment is plunging because of tariffs.
For the most part, Fed officials largely agree that tariffs will lead to a one-time bump in inflation, and have not included a recession in their respective base-case scenarios.
More on animal trafficking
More on Quran memorisation:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
MATCH INFO
FA Cup fifth round
Chelsea v Manchester United, Monday, 11.30pm (UAE), BeIN Sports
Transgender report
Tomorrow 2021
Whiile you're here
Damien McElroy: Anti-science attitudes in America are proving lethal
Editorial: What makes the UAE such a good place to test vaccines?
Editorial: The fight against Covid-19 should be guided by science
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Tomorrow 2021
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
More on animal trafficking
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Read more about the coronavirus
While you're here
Declan McVeigh: Nations should mind all their languages – even the indigenous ones
Samanth Subramanian: Imposing Hindi could undermine India's linguistic diversity
Gavin Esler: What we lose when we allow languages to die
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
The%20Boy%20and%20the%20Heron
The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
World Mental Health Day
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Transgender report
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
AUSTRALIA SQUADS
ODI squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa
Twenty20 squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Sean Abbott, Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Jhye Richardson, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa
More coverage from the Future Forum
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
World Mental Health Day
Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
- Life in the royal residences with Sheikha Osha bint Nahayan
- Sheikha Mahra and Sheikha Sabha recall their time spent in Al Hosn
- A place where problems were solved
- How the fort's rise tracked Abu Dhabi's development
- Meet Frauke Heard-Bey - the fort's historian for 30 years
- In Pictures: Story of a fort
Towering concerns
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The National editorial: Turkey's soft power weighs heavy on Europe's Muslims
Con Coughlin: How extremists use Zoom and other tools to exploit pandemic
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• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
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8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Neighbourhood Watch
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
While you're here
Tomorrow 2021
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
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Hili 2: Unesco World Heritage site
The site is part of the Hili archaeological park in Al Ain. Excavations there have proved the existence of the earliest known agricultural communities in modern-day UAE. Some date to the Bronze Age but Hili 2 is an Iron Age site. The Iron Age witnessed the development of the falaj, a network of channels that funnelled water from natural springs in the area. Wells allowed settlements to be established, but falaj meant they could grow and thrive. Unesco, the UN's cultural body, awarded Al Ain's sites - including Hili 2 - world heritage status in 2011. Now the most recent dig at the site has revealed even more about the skilled people that lived and worked there.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
Tomorrow 2021
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Zayed Sustainability Prize
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Plastic tipping points
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Recommended
Race card
6.30pm: Emirates Holidays Maiden (TB), Dh82,500 (Dirt), 1,900m
7.05pm: Arabian Adventures Maiden (TB), Dh82,500 (D), 1,200m
7.40pm: Emirates Skywards Handicap (TB), Dh82,500 (D), 1,200m
8.15pm: Emirates Airline Conditions (TB), Dh120,000 (D), 1,400m
8.50pm: Emirates Sky Cargo (TB), Dh92,500 (D)1,400m
9.15pm: Emirates.com (TB), Dh95,000 (D), 2,000m
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
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Rashmee Roshan Lall: Countries will now have to hold off on defence spending
Hussein Ibish: The US is to blame for its foreign policy paralysis in recent times
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War on waste
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
While you're here
Kareem Shaheen: Even a pandemic could not unite today's America
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National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
While you're here
Watch: Davos 2021 panel discusses the future of work for women
Alice Haine: Investing in gender parity 'makes good business sense'
Kareem Shaheen: How the pandemic could set Arab women back
Simon Rushton: Home schooling forces UK mothers to quit jobs
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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National Editorial: World trade has started to look inwards
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ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
The specs
Price, base: Dh228,000 / Dh232,000 (est)
Engine: 5.7-litre Hemi V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 552Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.5L / 100km
BRIEF SCORES
England 228-7, 50 overs
N Sciver 51; J Goswami 3-23
India 219, 48.4 overs
P Raut 86, H Kaur 51; A Shrubsole 6-46
England won by nine runs
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
