In a political landscape marked more often by rupture than rapprochement, even the thinnest sliver of diplomatic thaw can provoke a flurry of market curiosity. So when Iran’s president recently stated that the country would welcome American investors if a nuclear agreement is reached, it jolted dormant questions about the future of US-Iran economic ties.
For now, nothing tangible has changed. US sanctions on Iran remain firmly in place – in fact, some have recently been expanded – and while diplomatic contacts are reportedly under way, they remain cautious and indirect.
As of now, the idea of formal US-Iran commercial engagement remains hypothetical at best, contingent on future breakthroughs that have yet to materialise.
But the fact that Tehran has publicly invited American investors – contingent on a nuclear agreement – and that Washington has not dismissed the overture, instead proceeding with diplomatic talks, raises a question too tempting to ignore: under what conditions could the US and Iran actually trade again?
The blunt reality is that nearly all meaningful trade between the two countries is currently illegal. Sanctions, many enshrined in US law, restrict the movement of goods, capital and services. Lifting them would require formal legislation passed by Congress. And in today’s political environment, where bipartisan consensus is rare and Iran remains a deeply divisive issue on Capitol Hill, the odds of such legislative action are slim.
That said, not all trade requires a full repeal of sanctions. The US president can authorise narrowly defined exchanges through executive waivers, while humanitarian trade – including food, medicine and medical devices – is permitted under existing exemptions. These mechanisms offer limited but real pathways for engagement, even within the broader constraints of the sanctions regime.
Think agricultural commodities, medical supplies or civil aviation components. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers – specific regulatory carve-outs allowed for limited trade in these areas. But the framework proved politically fragile, unravelling after the US withdrew from the deal in 2018.
If sanctions did soften, even marginally, what would be the point – and for whom?
From Washington’s perspective, only a few sectors offer real strategic interest. Energy remains the most geopolitically significant – Iran holds some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves. If sanctions were eased and Iranian exports returned at scale, that additional volume would likely put downwards pressure on prices in the short term – aligning with the Trump administration's economic agenda.
That said, current US policy remains focused on restricting Iranian energy exports, not integrating them.
Agriculture and basic commodities have historically been allowed under humanitarian exemptions, and while they could feature in limited trade scenarios, they are more likely to function as diplomatic concessions than economic priorities.
For Iran, the wish list extends beyond goods: while advanced technology, industrial equipment and certain pharmaceuticals remain high priorities, the deeper goal is access to global financial systems – US dollars, markets and capital flows. This kind of re-engagement would signal a structural economic reopening, not just a transactional exchange.
Private sector interest, particularly from US multinationals, could materialise quickly if sanctions were eased. Despite the risks posed by continuing restrictions, there are significant opportunities, especially in sectors such as energy, technology and infrastructure.
However, the real question is whether Washington’s political and strategic priorities would permit such economic engagement, given the broader concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities and regional influence.
Of course, all of this unfolds under a second Trump administration – a factor that complicates, but does not entirely foreclose, the conversation.
President Donald Trump’s foreign policy instincts are famously transactional. If a deal can be framed as tougher, richer, or more “America First” than its predecessor, there’s at least theoretical room for engagement.
Iran may be gambling that its outreach – thinly veiled though it is – will appeal to this mindset. A narrowly crafted, heavily branded “Trump Deal” could offer Iran selective economic access in exchange for nuclear restraint or regional de-escalation.
Tehran’s overture may ultimately be more about optics than tangible outcomes, given the domestic pressure from a weakened rial and simmering dissatisfaction in the country. The remarks could be an attempt to project pragmatism both to external investors and domestic factions. Iran never chose isolation; it was imposed by sanctions and political pressure.
However, the challenge for Tehran is convincing global capital that the US is a reliable partner, given the unpredictability of American foreign policy, particularly after the Trump administration’s recent tariff blitz. The US’ erratic shifts in policy will make it hard to convince Iran, and potentially others, that it can be a stable and trustworthy partner.
For all the chatter, the fundamentals haven’t changed. Sanctions remain intact. Trust is in short supply. And the domestic political cost of re-engaging with Iran remains high for any US administration – Trump’s doubly so.
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Warlight,
Michael Ondaatje, Knopf
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
More coverage from the Future Forum
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn (11.30pm)
Saturday
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Schalke (6.30pm)
Union Berlin v Borussia Monchengladbach (6.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldof v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Cologne (9.30pm)
Sunday
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Mainz (9pm)
Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
%3Cp%3EFly%20with%20Etihad%20Airways%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20New%20York%E2%80%99s%20JFK.%20There's%2011%20flights%20a%20week%20and%20economy%20fares%20start%20at%20around%20Dh5%2C000.%3Cbr%3EStay%20at%20The%20Mark%20Hotel%20on%20the%20city%E2%80%99s%20Upper%20East%20Side.%20Overnight%20stays%20start%20from%20%241395%20per%20night.%3Cbr%3EVisit%20NYC%20Go%2C%20the%20official%20destination%20resource%20for%20New%20York%20City%20for%20all%20the%20latest%20events%2C%20activites%20and%20openings.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Mica
Director: Ismael Ferroukhi
Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani
3 stars
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More about Middle East geopolitics
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
match info
Manchester United 3 (Martial 7', 44', 74')
Sheffield United 0
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Mubalada World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Race card
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Meydan Cup – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,810m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,600m
9.50pm: Meydan Classic – Conditions (TB) $$50,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm: Dubai Sprint – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,200m
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
More on Quran memorisation:
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
